Seminole Tribe Spending to Protect Florida Gambling Interests

Following the money is usually a good way to determine political alignments — and in the case of Florida gambling, the Seminole Tribe appears to expect Republican Byron Donalds to protect its monopoly.

Through the most recent deadline, the Seminole Tribe has contributed $8.75 million to Florida political races. Of that, $4 million went to Donalds, the Republican gubernatorial candidate to replace outgoing governor Ron DeSantis.

The Seminole Tribe has given just $200,000 to the Florida Democratic Party, while spending more than $7 million giving to Florida Republicans. That reflects the normal political climate in the Sunshine State, which hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994.

Donalds, the current United States representative from Florida’s 19th District, is the heavy favorite to win the Republican nomination. Florida voters hold their primary on August 18, and Donalds is expected to be nominated along with Democrat David Jolly.

Why Is the Seminole Tribe Investing Heavily in the Governor’s Race?

The Seminole Tribe has long had a monopoly on legal Florida gambling. Since Murphy v. NCAA allowed states to legalize sports betting, the Seminole Tribe has lobbied hard to protect its monopoly.

In 2018, the Seminole Tribe teamed up with Disney to help pass Amendment 3. That amendment locked the Florida legislature out of the process of legalizing any form of gambling in the state. Instead, any form of gambling can only be approved by a citizen-led ballot initiative.

In practice, that makes it virtually impossible for legal Florida gambling to win approval. Just to make the ballot, eight percent of voters must sign in 15 of the state’s 29 congressional districts. Florida also has a supermajority requirement, which means 60% of voters must approve a ballot measure or it fails.

The Seminole Tribe’s new threat to its monopoly is prediction markets. While Florida has legal sports betting, the Seminole Tribe’s partnership with Hard Rock Bet is the only sportsbook allowed to operate. Prediction markets have threatened that exclusivity, especially because they legally keep all of the money without contributing to the state.

What Role Does the Governor Play in Protecting Legal Florida Gambling?

Whoever Florida’s next governor is will have to decide how to approach prediction markets. That can mean one of three approaches: standing up to President Donald Trump, waiting him out when his term expires or doing nothing and letting the Supreme Court decide.

If Jolly wins the election, Florida will almost certainly oppose Trump on the issue. The Democrats would have no reason to accede to the president’s wishes, and the state’s laws naturally encourage opposing prediction markets.

Donalds would find a tougher position. However, Trump is term-limited and would leave office in 2029, halfway through Donalds’ term. He could theoretically choose to wait Trump out and oppose prediction markets two years into his term.

Finally, Florida could choose to remain on the sidelines. That’s been current attorney general James Uthmeier’s strategy. He defended the tribe’s compact in 2025 and has aggressively pursued challengers to the Seminole Tribe’s gaming operations. But he did not sign the letter of attorneys general asserting state control over legal gambling. Florida is one of six states not to sign.

Taking a passive approach to prediction markets has not hurt Uthmeier’s standing with the tribe. It has donated $50,000 to his campaign.

What’s Likely to Happen?

Based on the Seminole Tribe’s spending, they expect Donalds to win. Jolly would be a natural fit to protect Florida gambling, but the tribe has contributed nothing to him.

Polling has been notoriously unreliable in this political cycle. But the most recent polls reflect the tribe’s spending. A University of North Florida poll lists Donalds holding a five-point lead over Jolly.