Latest Poll Gives Texas Sports Betting Advocates Narrow Edge

With less than a month to go until the election, Texas sports betting supporters have never been closer to toppling their main opposition.

A new poll from the University of Texas at Austin places Democrat Vikki Goodwin of Bee Cave ahead of incumbent Republican lieutenant governor Dan Patrick, 49% to 46%. The numbers are within the margin of error, and it’s important to note Goodwin has not topped 50% in any poll. By the same token, neither has Patrick, and both are running out of time to make their case to Texas voters.

The poll also found Democrat Gina Hinojosa leading incumbent Republican Greg Abbott for governor by a margin of 49% to 48%. While the governor’s opinion on Texas sports betting would be important, the lieutenant governor race is by far the more important one for advocates to watch.

That’s because the lieutenant governor of Texas has virtually total control over what bills make it to the Texas Senate. Patrick, who is seeking a fourth term as Texas’ lieutenant governor, has never allowed a sports betting bill to even reach the Senate floor.

That came up again in 2025, when Rep. Sam Harless (R-Spring) crafted a bill in the Texas House. Patrick made clear he would not take up the bill in the Texas Senate, and the bill ended up dying. A similar bill in the Texas Senate, SJR 65, met the same fate.

How Could This Change Things for Texas Sports Betting Advocates?

Given that Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to a statewide seat since 1994, Texas sports betting supporters had all but given up on getting a bill to pass the legislature. As long as the 76-year-old Patrick held his office, there was no realistic path to legalization.

In 2022, Patrick won re-election by 10 points, and none of his three races have come closer than five points. This has almost matched his running mate Abbott, who has won all three of his gubernatorial races by 11 points or more.

But in this year’s political climate, Patrick and Abbott face the possibility of defeat for the first time. Both have found themselves within the margin of error in virtually every credible poll, which speaks to how things have changed in Texas.

How Accurate Are the Polls Likely to Be?

The Lone Star State rarely ends up competitive in November elections. However, the political climate of 2026 and the presence of Senate candidate James Talarico seem to have changed those calculations.

While Talarico won’t affect Texas sports betting unless prediction markets end up before the Senate, his presence on the ballot could lift Goodwin and Hinojosa to victory. Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton in his race, and he was the only statewide Democrat to break 50% in the poll.

Recent audio from Paxton suggests that the polls are accurate. In audio released by Rolling Stone, Paxton said that Abbott is “struggling” with his race and that Texas Republicans will likely lose seats in the legislature in the upcoming election.

What’s the Upcoming Timeline?

Early voting in Texas will start on Oct. 19. The election will be decided on Nov. 3, and is likely to be one of the closest races decided that night.

Importantly, the Texas legislature only meets every two years. That means that a victory for Goodwin and Hinojosa doesn’t necessarily mean that Texas sports betting will become a reality right away.

But it would give betting advocates a chance, which would not exist under Patrick. Depending on the makeup of the legislature, a win by the two Democrats could give Texas legislators one or two chances to try to bring sports betting to the Lone Star State.