Raiders Odds: Evaluating Las Vegas’ 2023 Betting Markets
The Las Vegas Raiders entered the 2022 season with high hopes of contention. After a playoff run in which they gave eventual Super Bowl participants Cincinnati a real battle, the team added ultra-premium WR Davante Adams. However, the Raiders fell flat with a 6-11 campaign that saw them basically out of the hunt by the middle of November. To divine what 2023 has in store, we’ll take a look at Las Vegas Raiders odds and see whether something might be worth a bet.
Notable Raiders Offseason Moves
We’ll start with changes the Raiders roster has undergone heading to the 2023 season. Keep in mind that minor moves will still occur. Useful veterans will become available following releases from other teams, and key injuries will crop up both to the Raiders and their opponents. But, here’s where things stand as of mid-June.
- Key additions: WR Jakobi Meyers, S Marcus Epps, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, CB David Long Jr., CB Duke Shelley, CB Brandon Facyson, TE Austin Hooper, LB Robert Spillane, TE Michael Mayer, EDGE Tyree Wilson, G Greg Van Roten
- Key losses: QB Derek Carr, TE Darren Waller, WR Mack Hollins, EDGE Clelin Ferrell, DT Andrew Billings, LB Denzel Perryman, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Duron Harmon
The net effect of these moves is probably just “meh.”
Quarterback is obviously the headliner. Carr and Garoppolo probably provide similar levels of production. But while Garoppolo gives the team a huge boost in the handsomeness department, he brings a decided downgrade in availability. Whereas Carr has basically been on the field every time the Raiders needed him aside from a broken fibula that cost him the team’s lone playoff game in 2016, Garoppolo has missed significant time in two of the past four seasons.
Waller has had a massively disappointing run, failing to become the star he looked like in 2019 and 2020. Hooper/Mayer probably represents a downgrade, but Meyers shoring up the wide receiver corps should cancel that out.
On defense, Wilson and a revamped secondary bring a new look. But even if Wilson becomes the blue chip pass rusher some billed him as, the Raiders probably still can’t cover anyone. That’s a major issue in today’s NFL, especially when facing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert multiple times per season.
Raiders Schedule And Odds For Every Game
Early betting markets from DraftKings Sportsbook can give us a look at what to expect for the Raiders’ game-to-game chances of victory. These numbers will obviously change massively. But, they’re still a useful tool.
|Week||Opponent||Raiders Spread||Game Notes|
|3||Pittsburgh||-1.5||Sunday Night Football|
|4||@ LA Chargers||+4.5||Fourth straight week of travel|
|5||Green Bay||-1.5||Monday Night Football|
|6||New England||+1.5||Short rest following MNF|
|8||@ Detroit||+3.5||Monday Night Football|
|9||New York Giants||-1.5||Short rest following MNF|
|10||New York Jets||+2.5||Sunday Night Football|
|14||Minnesota||-1.5||Extra rest following bye|
|15||LA Chargers||+1.5||Thursday Night Football|
|16||@ Kansas City||+8.5||Extra rest following TNF; Christmas Day (Monday)|
|17||@ Indianapolis||-2||Short rest following Monday game|
Converting these spreads to moneylines, one comes up with approximately 7.4 projected market wins for the Raiders.
That tracks almost exactly with the 7.5 opener on Raiders win total odds. However, note that early action has pushed the number down to .
Additionally, the market has likewise demonstrated a bearish approach to Raiders Super Bowl odds. There, after opening +4000 (in admittedly high-vig markets), one can now find the Raiders .
Raiders Key Advanced Stats, Ranks In 2022
|Stat||Raiders Value (League Rank)|
|Offense DVOA||+0.3% (17)|
|Defense DVOA||+13% (31)|
|Special Teams DVOA||+1.1% (12)|
|Rush Offense EPA/Play||-0.071 (20)|
|Rush Defense EPA/Play||-0.06 (20)|
|Pass Offense EPA/Play||+0.057 (13)|
|Pass Defense EPA/Play||+0.15 (31)|
Possible Offseason Bet On Las Vegas Raiders Odds For 2023
Like the market, I’m in agreement that the opening number on Raiders wins was too high. Bettors can still find a juiced under 7.5 available. While I think that’s a likely winner, the steam on under has me preferring a different approach to Raiders odds for the 2023 season.
With a lot of the value bet out of the standard number, and significant potential injury downside at the QB position, I’ll be hunting alternate unders closer to the start of the season. I’m skeptical the fragile Garoppolo will hold up behind a mediocre offensive line. Only LT Kolton Miller looks like a standout there.
The pass rush could be good if Wilson becomes a hit right away. But if the back seven can’t cover — and they certainly profile that way — what good will it do?
This is a soft factor too, but a rough start to the season would only increase the potential for discord in the locker room here. Adams has already made some rumblings about being unhappy.
I also don’t believe in Head Coach Josh McDaniel whatsoever.
Ultimately, I’m bearish on Las Vegas and expect another rough season. Whether the alternate markets will retain any value in a couple of months remains to be seen.
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