NFL Playoff Odds: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson Props For AFC Championship vs. Chiefs
Lamar Jackson will try to dethrone Patrick Mahomes as conference king in the AFC Championship Game. A week after he sent C.J. Stroud and the Texans packing, what are Lamar Jackson props set at for the AFC title game against the Chiefs? We’ll take a look at his rushing, passing, and ATTD odds for Sunday’s showdown, with the Ravens favored to be this conference’s representative in 2024 Super Bowl odds.
Sports betting sites have the Ravens as home favorites against the Chiefs, and the game has a -point over/under. Place a bet on Lamar Jackson props by clicking any odds in the post.
Lamar Jackson Props: Full Selection Of Odds
Browse through all NFL player props for conference championship week using our prop betting tool.
Lamar Jackson Props: Passing
If Jackson’s passing prop looks like, that’s because it is. Jackson went over this number more times than not in 2023 while averaging about 230 YPG.
However, only three teams allowed fewer passing yards than the Chiefs’ 177.6 per game. Chiefs opponents were 8-11 to the over on this number, and just 1-5 down the stretch over the team’s last six games. It’s not simply a volume issue either, as the Chiefs’ passing defense ranks highly in NFL advanced metrics, top five in pass defense DVOA, Success Rate, and EPA/play.
Mark Andrews returning may help but it’s an open question how much he moves the needle after Isaiah Likely enjoyed a strong campaign in his stead.
It doesn’t seem likely that Jackson will be firing a high volume of passes in this game. The Chiefs have been quite vulnerable on the ground, as everyone saw, with the Bills racking up 182 rushing yards. Baltimore’s staff will likely zero in on this weakness rather than risk a ton of passes in what could be sub-standard conditions, per NFL weather reports.
But Jackson’s passing yardage and attempts/completions props look like they account for a low-volume game.
One intriguing look could be Under 33.5 on Jackson’s longest passing play. The Chiefs have been extremely difficult to beat deep this year. And wind and rain will only encourage both teams to look shorter.
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Lamar Jackson Props: Rushing
As mentioned, the Chiefs have struggled to slow down opposing rushing attacks. They ranked among the NFL’s worst by both rush EPA/play allowed and rush defense DVOA.
So, can Lamar Jackson go over his rushing prop?
Interestingly, there are some conflicting signs here. On the one hand, Josh Allen did just bulldoze this defense for 72 yards on 12 carries.
And the Chiefs’ scheme plays into that. Few teams play more man coverage than the Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo loves to dial up exotic blitz packages and trust his cover men, rightfully so since they excel at shutting down opposing pass catchers. Man coverage means fewer eyes on the QB, so if that player finds a crease, it’s going to take some time before anyone tracks him down.
And yet … the Chiefs have largely done excellent work limiting opposing QBs known for their rushing prowess. Here’s a table of their regular season games against Allen, Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields:
That’s 33 rushes for 108 total yards, a 3.3 average. Now, the Chiefs’ defense did benefit from a positive script against both Fields and Hurts. Even still, that’s tremendous work against some very talented runners.
Jackson’s rushing prop has shot way up after sitting around 50.5 at close last week, following his 100-yard performance against the Texans. Overall, the number looks to have adjusted properly for this matchup at least, with the possibility remaining that it has over-adjusted, given how good the Chiefs’ defense has been at stopping QB rushes for much of the season.
Lamar Jackson Props: Touchdowns
However, one area where the Chiefs have struggled is preventing those rushing QBs from reaching the end zone. In the four games against the players listed above, the Chiefs did allow five rushing touchdowns to those signal-callers despite the poor yardage output.
However, again, Jackson’s touchdown prop accounts for this, sitting with implied odds right around 50% that he scores. Given that he only scored in four games this year and he leaned much more into his passing this season, that doesn’t look like a particularly attractive bet.
Implied team totals have the Ravens scoring three times on Sunday. Can Jackson accrue a couple of scores through the air to go over his passing TD prop at an underdog price?
I don’t think this is the craziest bet in the world. Although the Chiefs have been solid in stopping opposing passing attacks, a price as high as +155 here is interesting. If the Chiefs sell out to stop the run and dare these pass catchers to beat them 1-on-1 — a distinct possibility — then Jackson should have some chances here.
Conclusion: Any Value To Be Had?
I don’t see much value in Lamar Jackson’s props for the AFC Championship. It looks like the numbers have properly accounted for the matchup, with the Chiefs’ leaky run defense contrasting with a stiff resistance to opposing passers. If anything, I think the number has gone too far on Jackson’s rushing props.
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