Lamar Jackson Odds & Player Props: Will Ravens QB Go Over 52.5 Rushing Yards?
The Ravens host the Texans for their first playoff game of the season, and Lamar Jackson props will make for a popular bet. The presumptive MVP should be in for a productive day with Ravens odds at on the spread. Do Lamar Jackson odds hold any potential value in this upcoming divisional playoff game?
Lamar Jackson Rushing Prop: Over Or Under Rushing Yards?
For the season, Jackson averages 51.3 YPG rushing with a median figure of 45. He has gone under this number more often than over. I think that’s going to continue against Houston for a few reasons.
For one, Houston plays a large amount of zone coverage. Heading into one of the final weeks of the regular season, their 80.5% rate of zone ranked eighth, according to PFF’s tracking. That keeps eyes on the QB, and the Texans clearly made that a priority in the first meeting between these teams. Jackson rushed just six times in that one for 35 yards.
Houston also defends the run much better than the pass in general. While they rank in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA, EPA/play and Success Rate allowed through the air, they’ve been among the strongest rush defenses (top six in all three categories). That should incentivize the Ravens to throw often, where they’re likely to have success anyway.
Fast linebackers also help, and Houston has those. Christian Harris and Blake Cashman both score well in athletic testing, and both have put together solid seasons. They shouldn’t get dusted too easily if they have to chase Jackson in the open field.
Houston also blitzes infrequently, 28th-most in the NFL. QBs will sometimes scramble when flushed from a pocket early if they see a free blitzer coming. That shouldn’t happen too often in this spot.
Mo’s Bet: Lamar Jackson Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
The Texans have largely done a pretty good job limiting opposing QBs from hurting them with the rush. In addition to Jackson, they held Kyler Murray under this number (51 yards on seven carries). Do note that Anthony Richardson was possibly headed for a big day before he got hurt, though (35 yards on three carries).
The number has ticked down a hair since I bet it, but I still like under this pretty high number. If the line proves correct here and the Ravens get out to a nice lead, all the better as both Jackson and the team will likely play things on the safe side to ensure his health for a deep playoff run.
Best of luck betting Lamar Jackson odds Saturday.
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