Mavericks at Kings NBA Play-In Tournament Odds & Picks: Upset Looming?

Before the postseason officially tips off Saturday, the ninth-seeded Sacramento Kings face off with the 10th-seeded Dallas Mavericks in the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. The victor will advance in the tournament to play for the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs. Let’s handicap the Mavericks at Kings odds, including key analytics and my prediction.

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mavericks at kings odds: spread, moneyline, total

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Points Scored

PRA (Total Points + Rebounds + Assists)

Will Anthony Davis Propel Mavs?

As poorly as Sacramento has played at times this season, it ranks seventh in adjusted offensive rating (116.0) and boasts a few of the league’s best shotmakers, including Zach LaVine. Dallas will counter by attempting to slow the game down, aiming to win (and cover the spread) with its size, physicality, and defense.

Per Cleaning The Glass, Dallas‘ Efficiency Differential is -9.0 since Davis returned from a six-week absence on March 24. The recent stretch includes another three games Davis didn’t suit up, proving how difficult it’s been to gauge the Mavericks since acquiring Davis in the stunning trade that sent Luka Doncic to the Lakers.

Nevertheless, with Kings dipping from -5 to spread favorites over the last 24 hours, the market has seemingly bought into the notion that Dallas’ power rating deserves a slight bump.

Assuming Davis inherits a full workload and Brandon Williams (oblique) is active, I believe this adjustment is justified. While Dallas has found little consistency at point guard without Kyrie Irving (ACL), Williams has emerged as one of the bright spots, providing a scoring punch off the bench. Even if Kings defensive stalwart Keon Ellis hampers Klay Thompson, Dallas should deliver enough offense to cover.

Good luck with your bets on Mavericks at Kings odds!

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