College Football Betting: UK At Georgia Odds, Picks & Kentucky Sportsbook Promos
The No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats (5-0) visit the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) in a battle of undefeated SEC East rivals. Georgia is a home favorite, while UK has odds to spring an upright upset at the best college football betting sites. This CFB Week 6 game kicks off Saturday, Oct. 7, at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN from Sanford Stadium. Below, we’ll preview each team’s matchups and provide potential picks and best bets.
Georgia Bulldogs Vs. Kentucky Wildcats Odds
Compare odds from the top US sportsbooks below. Click on the odds in the table to place a bet now.
Kentucky vs. Georgia Quick Look
|3.35 (13th)||PPD||3.11 (20th)|
|1.17 (14th)||PPD/A||1.21 (17th)|
|6.5 (24th)||YPP||7.2 (7th)|
|4.4 (14th)||YPP/A||4.2 (7th)|
Table key: Power (TheLines aggregate power rating), KFord (KFord Rating), PPD (points per drive scored), PPD/A (points per drive allowed), YPP (yards per play), YPP/A (yards per play allowed)
Week 6: Georgia Vs. Kentucky Preview
It’s been a while since Kentucky displayed offensive prowess against Georgia. Since 2018, the Wildcats have scored one total offensive touchdown against the Bulldogs but also covered each of the last four spreads. Low-scoring rock fights have been the norm between these two teams. This season, Georgia’s been in its fair share of rock fights, not pulling off any of the blowouts we expected from the two-time defending champion. The game script for this one projects a potential low-scoring battle, with an implied final score of Georgia winning 31.5-17.
Kentucky back Ray Davis comes off a game in which he rushed for 280 yards. Georgia’s defense just allowed 219 yards on the ground to Auburn, more than it allowed in its first three FBS games combined. However, bottle Davis up, and Kentucky’s offense sputters. On the season, the Wildcats are 92nd in passing success rate and struggle on third downs. The Bulldogs allow the ninth-lowest success rate on third and fourth downs themselves.
Offensively, Georgia has been much more pass-reliant than in prior years. Their -8.3% rush rate over expected is the 14th-lowest mark (Parker Fleming), meaning Georgia passes on 8.3% more plays than what’s expected of the FBS average team. Kentucky rosters a very strong secondary, but the Bulldogs focus on their biggest star, tight end Brock Bowers. In the 27-20 win over Auburn, Bowers hauled in 121 fourth-quarter receiving yards and lifted Georgia to a victory.
Receiver Ladd McConkey and running back Dajuan Edwards returned to play, with Edwards scoring a late touchdown himself.
KFord Rating assessment
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From a power rating perspective, Georgia has been downgraded a full touchdown since the preseason. That’s the fifth-largest decrease in power rating in FBS. Baylor and Pitt are the only Power Five teams whose power rating fell further this year.
With the No. 12 defense nationally, Kentucky presents the stiffest test that Georgia has, or will, face on that side of the ball all regular season. The offense has also been better than expected – rising from No. 63 to No. 47 – but my model expects that to be the mismatch. The difference is, I just don’t expect enough points in this one for the UK offense.
Bottom line, I have Georgia -15.5, with a 13% chance Kentucky takes the lead in the SEC East.Kelley Ford, TheLines College Football Podcast
UK Football Odds: Best Bets
Given Georgia’s ability to get its defense off the field on late downs and Kentucky’s inability to move the sticks on third down, a Bulldog lead of almost any measure in the second half would be nearly an insurmountable deficit. Confidence in a defense to get off the field on third down increases the confidence in punting the football away on offense with a lead. The odds suggest Georgia will hold a lead in the second half, even if the game is still competitive.
These factors led me to bet Under 23.5 second-half points (-105). Georgia runs the 95th-slowest offense nationally (seconds per play), and Kentucky the 123rd. Should the Bulldogs build a second-half lead, the Wildcats would be forced to take the ball out of Davis’s hands and put it into the hands of Devin Leary‘s less successful passing attack. Georgia’s defensive secondary is talented enough to keep the Kentucky receiving corps in check.
I expect Georgia to move the ball but keep the confidence to keep the game in their defense’s hands in the second half, leading to reduced scoring.
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