Louisville, UK College Football Betting Odds & Best Kentucky Sportsbook Promos
In less than a week, sports fans in Kentucky can fire up their accounts at the best sports betting sites for the first time, but Louisville and Kentucky football fans can already lock in hundreds of dollars in bonus bets with pre-live offers as well. We’ll break down the Cardinals’ ACC matchup against Boston College and the Wildcats’ SEC contest against Vanderbilt below. Plus, who would be favored if UofL played UK this week? But first, TheLines.com has assembled the top available pre-live Kentucky sportsbook promos below, as KY sports betting gets ready to launch online on Thursday, Sept. 28.
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Best Kentucky Sportsbook Promos
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Kentucky (3-0, 0-0) at Vanderbilt (2-2, 0-0)
Kentucky Wildcats College Football Team Preview
With a 3-0 record, and blowout wins over Ball State and Akron at home, it looks, on paper, like Kentucky’s season has gotten off to a pretty good start. However, a deeper dive paints a slightly different picture. The 28-17 home win against FCS Eastern Kentucky is largely to blame for the Wildcats’ power rating decreasing from 9.1 (No. 26) in the preseason to 6.3 (No. 36) currently.
The offense has been about what the model expected – improving from No. 63 to No. 62 – but the defense has been a bit disappointing. The model projected this unit to be No. 7 nationally in the preseason and it is now grading out at No. 16. So still good, just not elite.
Banking the three non-conference wins was critically important, though, as the Wildcats now begin conference play with the SEC’s lowest power-rated team before hosting Florida next week. The Wildcats cannot afford to overlook the Commodores this week, though, if they want to exceed last year’s regular season win total of seven.
Kentucky’s chances to win at least eight regular season games have decreased from 33% in the preseason to 26% currently in my KFord Ratings and would fall to just 10% win a loss on Nashville this week.
Vanderbilt Commodores College Football Team Preview
Vanderbilt is the most difficult football job in the SEC. It’s just the fact of the matter. And this year is no different. With a power rating of -6.4 (No. 93 nationally), my numbers would make the Commodores +11.5 on a neutral field against Missouri, the No. 13 power-rated team in the conference. While the offense is a respectable FBS-average No. 67, it is still the worst in the SEC. And the defense is simply not very good – power-rated No. 102, by far the worst in the SEC. This game being in Nashville is about the only advantage my numbers give the Commodores.
My numbers project Kentucky to win by 10.5, which equates to a 23% chance that Vanderbilt earns the upset win at home.
|Team||Current||With a Win||With a Loss|
|Kentucky||2% (5th)||2% (5th)||<1% (6th)|
|Vanderbilt||<1% (7th)||<1% (7th)||<1% (7th)|
Boston College (1-2, 0-1) at Louisville (3-0, 1-0)
Louisville Cardinals College Football Team Preview
Louisville’s native son, Jeff Brohm, could not have dreamt of a better start to the 2023 season as the Cardinals are off to a perfect 3-0 start in his debut season leading his alma mater. The three wins are 0.5 more than my preseason realistic expectations projected through week 3, which ranks No. 31 nationally in my overachievers list (for context, Colorado ranks No. 1 with a +2.0 differential).
Louisville is ranked No. 28 in my most-deserving résumé metric, with the No. 23 most impressive record achievement (i.e. how difficult would it be for the average top-25 team to achieve your record or better against your schedule) and No. 37 relative scoring margin (i.e. how does your average scoring margin per game compare to what would be expected of the average top 25 FBS team against your schedule).
The Cardinals’ power rating has improved by nearly three points compared to the preseason and their corresponding ranking has improved from No. 39 to No. 31. Put another way, Louisville has exceeded the expectations of my predictive model to this point in the season. The offense has been upgraded from No. 51 to No. 35, while the defense has been downgraded from No. 21 to No. 42.
Louisville’s 8.9 power rating is seventh-best in the ACC behind Florida State (21.0), Clemson (15.5), Miami (13.2), Syracuse (12.0), North Carolina (11.5), and Duke (10.0). However, because the Cardinals avoid four of those teams in conference play, Louisville is projected to win 5.7 conference games – second-best in the ACC behind only Florida State (6.7). As a result, the Cardinals have a 34% chance to make it to Charlotte – again, second-best in the ACC behind only the Seminoles (68%).
Boston College Eagles College Football Team Preview
Following a 29-31 home loss to Florida State last weekend, Boston College’s power rating improved 4.3 points from last week. That represented the second-largest upgrade of any team this week, behind only South Alabama (+5.0 points). However, the Eagles’ power rating is still 1.4 points lower now than it was in the preseason, and Boston College is power rated No. 83, second-worst in the ACC head of only Virginia (No. 100). With the No. 85 offense (third-worst in the ACC) and No. 92 defense (worst in the ACC), it’s hard to envision the Eagles having many significant advantages in this one.
While it’s worth noting that this is a potential look-ahead spot for Louisville, who travel to Raleigh to take on NC State next week, I don’t think it’s enough to trip up the Cardinals at home.
My numbers project Louisville to win by 16, which equates to a 13% chance that Boston College will pull off the upset on the road. And in case you’re curious, if UofL played UK this week in The Ville, I’d make the Cards a 5-point favorite. We’ll see what it is at the end of the season.
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|Team||Current||With a Win||With a Loss|
|Louisville||34% (2nd)||37% (2nd)||14% (6th)|
|Boston College||<1% (13th)||<1% (11th)||<1% (13th)|
College Football MegaPod: Week 4
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