Horse Racing Odds: 2024 Kentucky Oaks Bets, Past Performances, Longshots To Consider

Wide open and wonderful. That’s the overview of the $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks, the filly equivalent of Kentucky Derby betting. It unfolds Friday with a 5:51 p.m. ET post from Churchill Downs. Track announcer Travis Stone this week called it the best Oaks in more than a decade, and a case can be made for well more than half of the 14 horses in Kentucky Oaks odds to either win or be in the exotics.

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2024 Kentucky Oaks Morning Line Odds

The field is so loaded that the morning-line favorite, Tarifa, was installed at 7-2 odds. All your prices will become official at post time, per pari-mutuel regulations.

On Thursday, Our Pretty Woman, who battled Tarifa to the wire before finishing second in the Fair Grounds Oaks, was entered. Tapit Jenalli, the rail horse in post No. 1, was scratched.

UPDATE: As of 12:18 p.m ET Friday., it is a sloppy track at Churchill Downs.

Post	Horse	Odds	Trainer	Jockey
1	Tapit Jenallie	30-1	Eddie Milligan Jr.	Manny Esquivel
2	Gin Gin	30-1	Brad Cox	Florent Geroux
3	Where’s My Ring	15-1	Val Brinkerhoff	Jose Lezcano
4	Regulatory Risk	20-1	Chad Brown	Jose Ortiz
5	Thorpedo Anna	5-1	Kenny McPeek	Brian Hernandez Jr.
6	Lemon Muffin	30-1	D. Wayne Lukas	Keith Asmussen
7	Fiona’s Magic	30-1	Michael Yates	Luis Saez
8	Tarifa	7-2	Brad Cox	Flavien Prat
9	Everland	30-1	Eric Foster	Abel Cedillo
10	Into Champagne	30-1	Ian Wilkes	Julien Leparoux
11	Ways and Means	5-1	Chad Brown	Tyler Gaffalione
12	Power Squeeze	12-1	Jorge Delgado	Daniel Centeno
13	Just FYI	9-2	Bill Mott	Jr. Alvarado
14	Leslie’s Rose	4-1	Todd Pletcher	Irad Ortiz Jr
15	Our Pretty Woman	15-1	Steve Asmussen	Joel Rosario

Kentucky Oaks Weather Forecast

The weather forecast was updated to project up to half an inch of rain on Friday. Whether that’s gentle and gradual or hard and fast will determine how the track is listed: fast, good, or sloppy.

Past Performances For Handicapping Kentucky Oaks Odds

1. Tapit Jenalli (Scratched)

2. Gin Gin (30-1)

Positioned early in the Gazelle and was in position to strike at the top of the lane. Faded badly and then came again, getting third and finishing about nine lengths behind Where’s My Ring. May improve, but has a lot to make up.

Does have a past victory at this distance in the mud in a lower-level race with a Beyer speed figure of 73, well below what would be needed here.

3. Where’s My Ring (15-1)

Finally answered the question of “Where’s My Diploma” by gaining her maiden victory in the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct in her eighth career start. And they bet her. She went off at 3-1 on her graduation to graded stakes races.

It was an impressive run, featuring tactical early speed, a rail journey, and then a swing outside to get home. Interesting that she was able to triumph in a $200,000 event after failing to win at maiden-special weights and in the $100,000 San Ysabel Stakes at Santa Anita.

Maybe the horse found something. Is the only horse in the race with a victory at this distance in a major Oaks prep. Comes off a career-high Beyer speed figure of 90.

If she improves a little more, could be right in this.

4. Regulatory Risk (20-1)

Strong second to Where’s My Ring in the Gazelle in her first foray to 1 1/8 miles. Went off at attractive 19-1 betting odds and had every chance to win. Nice effort, but may need a little more here. Figures to stalk.

5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1)

Maybe that should be Torpedo. Notched an exceptional triumph in the $750,000 Fantasy Stakes off of a four-month layoff. Broken alertly by Brian Hernandez Jr, she stalked smartly and won in style down the lane. A similar effort would put her in the winner’s circle here.

Always love the Kenneth McPeek-Brian Hernandez Jr. connection, along with victory at the highest-level prep race to the Oaks. The addition of Our Pretty Woman may keep that 5-1 price close to intact.

Has never run on a wet track.

6. Lemon Muffin (30-1)

There was a world of difference between the Honeybee, which she won, and the Fantasy, in which she was a distant seventh. Played by the bettors at 5-2, but not nearly good enough that day. Hence the huge number.

7. Fiona’s Magic (30-1)

Made a nice move to win the Davona Dale, but could not step up in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, finishing a distant eighth. She pressed the pace all the way until the top of the lane and then had nothing.

Power Squeeze won the race and finished way ahead of her. So did Ways and Means. She shouldn’t be around the win line but will impact the race as a pace factor.

8. Tarifa (7-2)

Has met every challenge and shown to be a consistent stalker.

She stalked to win Rachel Alexandra in the slop and followed with a nice finish to capture the $400,000 Fair Grounds Oaks over Our Pretty Woman by three-quarters of a length. Neither victory had that putaway acceleration, but she has shown steady improvement.

Figures prominently and has a victory in one of the 100-point Oaks prep races. Win in the Rachel Alexandra really bodes well if the expected rain somehow turns the track to slop.

Major threat, but not prohibitive.

9. Everland (30-1)

Stormed through an inside opening and captured the $300,000 Bourbonette Stakes at 11-1.

The time of 1:44.36 is representative for 1 1/16 miles, not far off Leslie’s Rose’s 1:43.85 and Thorpedo Anna’s 1:44.24. Closer will need some help with a pace duel, but this is a good horse that’s done well, just in cheaper company.

Runs better than 30-1. Arrogate breeding is always a plus.

10. Into Champagne (30-1)

Had the lead in the Gulfstream Park Oaks at the top of the stretch before Power Squeeze and Ways and Means blew by her.

She finished a dogged but fading third. Can’t see any scenario where she could beat back the same foes she faces here. But figures to join Fiona’s Magic in keeping the pace lively.

11. Ways and Means (5-1)

Ultimately, she suffered from a rare mistake by Irad Ortiz in the Gulfstream Oaks, in which he made a premature move on the 1-2 favorite. Ortiz was shuffled back early, then asked Ways and Means for her best run while four horses wide along the backstretch. As a result, Ways and Means was collared in the final strides by Power Squeeze.

With a better ride, Ways and Means might be better than Power Squeeze. Interestingly, the morning-line odds already reflect that.

Irad will ride Leslie’s Rose, whom he guided to victory in the Ashland Stakes.

12. Power Squeeze (12-1)

Power indeed. Four straight victories, progressing through maiden, minor stakes, and then the $250,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks.

Definitive power move provided a rallying triumph at 11-1. She overtook 1-2 favorite Ways and Means in the stretch to win convincingly. Now leaves the Florida circuit to try at the Twin Spires. Had the perfect setup. May not get that from an outside post here.

One of the best values on the board. Oddsmakers have built a projected improvement by Ways and Means into the line. This horse, who beat her, remains long.

13. Just F Y I (9-2)

Beautiful Breeders’ Cup Juvenile triumph in November at 7-1 odds, giving a blisteringly sharp effort at Santa Anita. Came back a bit sluggishly after a four-month layoff and finished a reasonable but definitive second to Leslie’s Rose in the Ashland.

The question is whether the second trip back will yield improvement. For those who believe that theory, she would not have to make up too much ground.

14. Leslie’s Rose (4-1)

Blossomed beautifully to capture the $600,000 Ashland Stakes at a sweet 9-1 price. Tactical speed provided a stalking rail position behind a slow pace and then featured an explosive burst down the lane.

Topped Just F Y I, who finished a game but conclusive second. This was the coming-out party for a horse who will gain significant respect here. Excellent rebound from a third at 1-5 in the Davona Dale, in which she was flat.

Now must stretch to 1 1/8 miles. Has a 95 Beyer speed figure, the highest in the field.

15. Our Pretty Woman (30-1)

Got a late entry Thursday with the scratch of Tapit Jenalli and instantly changes this race. She battled to the wire, albeit in a small field, with favored Tarifa in the Fair Grounds Oaks.

Those odds will change substantially, but they are fun to look at for a while. She has run twice in the slop. Has two wins. But also has the outside in a big field and must stretch.

Nobody ever said this was easy.

Projected Pace Scenario

Fiona’s Magic and Into Champagne should want the front and may even go at it early. Ways and Means might even join that group.

All the major contenders figure to stalk and try to make their best run down the lane.

How I Will Bet Kentucky Oaks Odds

With someone else’s money. LOL. Tough one and a great race. Less conviction than my Kentucky Derby bets and how our staff uncovered the most likely Kentucky Derby winners.

Win Bet: No. 5 Thorpedo Anna

I am initially bullish on her because of the definitive surge in the highest-purse prep race. And because of the improvement.

Looked transformed after a four-month layoff, perhaps suggesting that the flat Golden Rod performance was influenced by racing three times in one month.

Will temper this bet if there is heavy rain.

So little separates these that it’s foolish for me to try and do so.

$5 Exacta Box

No. 8 Tarifa, No. 11 Ways and Means, No. 12 Power Squeeze, No. 13 Just F Y I, No. 14 Lesle’s Rose, and No. 15 Our Pretty Woman all figure. And what if No. 3 Where’s My Ring finds new life?

So I’ll take that win bet and $5 exacta box 5-8 and 8-14 in case I have honed in too much on Thorpedo Anna.

After that, it’s a race-time decision based on the track and the post-parade.

Any combo of these horses will pay well and the attractive odds indicate how competitive this field is. So little separates these that it’s foolish for me to try and do so.

Good luck sorting this one and bringing a winner from a challenge year of handicapping Kentucky Oaks odds.

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