Kentucky Sports Betting: UK College Football Odds vs. Florida Picks, Predictions, Betting Tips
The Kentucky Wildcats (4-0) continue their SEC East schedule, hosting the No. 22 Florida Gators (3-1) on the opening weekend for sports betting apps in Kentucky. Kentucky football odds show UK is a home favorite, while visiting Florida is on the moneyline to win the game. While the Gators dominate the series all-time, the Wildcats have won three of the last five meetings. Florida at Kentucky kicks off Saturday, Sept. 30, at noon ET on ESPN.
Below, we’ll break down this rivalry and SEC odds. Plus, keep scrolling for our rankings of the top KY sportsbook promo codes and bonus bet offers for the opening weekend of mobile sports betting in the Bluegrass.
Kentucky Wildcats Vs. Florida Gators Odds
Compare odds from the best college football betting sites below. Click on the odds in the table to place a bet now.
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Florida At Kentucky Quick Look
|2.00 (65th)||PPD||2.93 (31st)|
|1.47 (30th)||PPD/A||1.19 (16th)|
|5.5 (60th)||YPP||7.2 (8th)|
|5.0 (38th)||YPP/A||3.9 (2nd)|
Table key: Power (TheLines aggregate power rating), KFord (KFord Rating), PPD (points per drive scored), PPD/A (points per drive allowed), YPP (yards per play), YPP/A (yards per play allowed)
Kentucky Wildcats Preview
I highlighted in my preseason preview for UK football odds the return of offensive coordinator Liam Coen and what that might mean for the Wildcats. We’re still waiting on the offensive explosion, as the Cats have looked sluggish against the likes of Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and Vanderbilt. Newcomer Devin Leary has had his fair share of struggles, logging five interceptions thrown already. This year’s receiving corps lacks the top-end talent and burner like Wan’Dale Robinson in Coen’s first stint in Lexington.
The underlying numbers are fine – good, even. Kentucky is 16th in EPA per rush, eighth in yards per play, and perfect in the red zone (100% score rate, FG, and TDs). Yet, there’s a genuine and grounded concern over the Wildcats’ offense.
So far, they’re running at a snail’s pace. Their 54 plays per game is 125th nationally and Kentucky runs a new play every 29 seconds (114th). When back Ray Davis isn’t breaking off a big play – or when Barion Brown isn’t sneaking behind the defense – the Wildcats fail to get much going. They have posted just a 41.2% success rate (defined as picking up 40% of available yards on first down, 60% on second down, and 100% on third and fourth downs), 77th in the country. Fortunately, Kentucky’s schedule allows them to pick up wins on the big play.
Starting guard Kenneth Horsey remains out indefinitely with a leg injury. Tight end Josh Kattus is questionable to play Saturday.
Defensively, Kentucky remains excellent, commonplace under Mark Stoops. Granted, their four opponents thus far don’t instill much fear in opposing defenses. This week presents the best usable data point for the Kentucky defense, which currently is 11th in EPA per play.
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Florida Gators Preview
The fears that Graham Mertz would be a complete disaster since transferring to Florida have proven to be untrue. Though far from a superstar, Mertz has taken care of the football, throwing his lone interception in the opening game at Utah. Offensive coordinator Rob Sale allows Mertz to be what he’s most effective as a game manager. Instead, the Gators lean heavily into the run game with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson. Etienne has been particularly impressive this season, averaging 4.18 yards after contact.
Up front, Florida has been dealing with injuries and suspensions. Micah Mazzccua returns this week after serving a suspension and center Kingsley Eguakun is expected back from injury. Eguakun missed the first two games and last week. Tackle Damieon George left last week’s game against Charlotte, but is expected to play Saturday.
Although the offense hasn’t been disastrous, it’s been lethargic, highlighted by an uninspired 22-7 win over Charlotte in Week 4. Luckily for the Gators, the defense has been outstanding. Despite missing impact player Justus Boone (out for the season), the Gators have removed the run game from opposing offensive game plans. Florida stands second in EPA per rush allowed on the season. In their Week 3 win over Tennessee, Florida allowed just 100 team rushing yards.
The Gators return home in Week 6 to host Vanderbilt.
Kentucky Football Odds Vs. Florida: Matchups to Watch
Both team’s struggles offensively are equally concerning. Last week’s result for the Gators should be taken with a grain of salt, considering they were down three starting offensive linemen. Ricky Pearsall commands a ridiculous 47.3% target share and dominated SportsCenter highlights with his one-handed catch against Charlotte. However, the weapons through the air end at Pearsall.
Kentucky rosters a pair of terrific corners: Maxwell Hairston and Andru Phillips. Hairston has logged three interceptions already and is allowing the sixth-worst QBR when targeted (19.2). However, Stoops runs primarily zone coverage, so expect Florida to move Pearsall around and scheme him into more advantageous matchups.
On the other side, we get a strength-versus-strength matchup – Florida’s pass rush against Kentucky’s offensive line. When blitzed, Leary has four turnover-worthy throws and two interceptions (compared to just one turnover-worthy throw when not blitzed). He tends to spend more time in the pocket than the FBS average (2.62 average time to throw, TTT), due in part to his receivers not getting open frequently.
APEX Princely Umanmielen has been a particular menace on the Gators’ defense this season. His 30.8% win rate on pass rushes is a top-three number nationally and it’s resulted in 17 pressures and five QB hits. The threat of Umanmielen on the outside may force Leary into a shorter TTT, reducing his effectiveness. With throws under 2.5 seconds from the snap, Kentucky’s receivers have six of their seven drops and Leary posts a far worse QBR (82.6 vs. 105.5).
Best of luck betting on Kentucky football odds!