What Is The Weather Forecast For The 2024 Kentucky Derby On Saturday, May 4?

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Published at May 2, 2024

With Kentucky Derby odds taking shape, the local weather in Louisville, Ky. is a major discussion point. As of Friday, the forecast from the National Weather Service of Louisville shows rain likely for doses of Derby weekend. Here are the specifics of what meteorologists predict for the Kentucky Derby weather on Saturday, May 4.

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what is the weather forecast?

Post time for the 150th Run for the Roses is 6:57 p.m. ET. National television coverage will run from 2:30 to 7:30 p.m.

If you're lucky enough to watch the race live from Churchill Downs, make sure to bring rain gear. As of May 1, Louisville's National Weather Service (NSW) projects a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies and a high near 79 degrees. Look for a southwest wind of 5 to 8 mph come the afternoon.

The wettest Kentucky Derby on record occurred just five races ago in 2018. For our readers who are at-home climatologists, 3.15 inches of rain fell throughout the daytime, and 2.85 inches occurred between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. when most fans were at the track.

Even on a sloppy track, Justify won the 2018 Derby — on his way to the 13th American Triple Crown. His victory in the most exciting two minutes in sports was his fourth career start.

Out of the 149 Kentucky Derby races, 70 have experienced rain at some point in the day. In other words, nearly 47% of Kentucky Derby days experienced some level of precipitation.

If the track is sloppy, TheLines.com horse-racing writer Dave Bontempo noted some Kentucky Derby mudders to consider in his preview.