Kentucky Derby Betting: Why Thoro-Graph Ratings Are Important Handicapping Tool
Bettors can use Thoro-Graph ratings, an advanced handicapping tool, to gain insight into betting Kentucky Derby odds. These numbers, like Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figures, seek to place a one-number value on a horse's performance. Thoro-graph puts a lot of data points into its final horse ratings: time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect wind. Which Kentucky Derby horses have run the best races according to this metric?
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Top Thoro-Graph Numbers For 2024 Kentucky Derby Horses
First, some notes about how the Thoro-Graph numbers work.
Lower numbers mean a stronger race. General wisdom is that it's going to take something around 0 to win the Kentucky Derby. Therefore, horses that have run a race in that ballpark may have a leg up on the opposition.
Horses will also frequently make a jump of several points from one race to the next, though. That means any Kentucky Derby horses that have run around a 4 theoretically have a decent chance of posting a Derby-winning time.
| Post Position | Horse | Morning line odds | Best Thoro-Graph |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Dornoch | 20-1 | 6.25 |
| 2. | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | 1.5 |
| 3. | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | 0.25 |
| 4. | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | 4.75 |
| 5. | Catalytic | 30-1 | 3.25 |
| 6. | Just Steel | 20-1 | 1 |
| 7. | Honor Marie | 20-1 | 5.5 |
| 8. | Just A Touch | 10-1 | 2.5 |
| 9. | Encino | Scratched | |
| 10. | T O Passowrd (JPN) | 30-1 | N/A |
| 11. | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | 1 |
| 12. | Track Phantom | 20-1 | 5* |
| 13. | West Saratoga | 50-1 | 7 |
| 14. | Endlessly | 30-1 | 6 |
| 15. | Domestic Product | 30-1 | 7 |
| 16. | Grand Mo The First | 50-1 | 6 |
| 17. | Fierceness | 5-2 | -3.25 |
| 18. | Stronghold | 20-1 | 5.5 |
| 19. | Resilience | 20-1 | 4 |
| 20. | Society Man | 50-1 | 4.25 |
| 21. | Epic Ride | 50-1 | unknown |
| 22. (AE) | Mugatu | 50-1 | unknown |
*Race didn't occur in the horse's 3-year-old season
Right off the bat, one can see that a number of horses have not run the sort of races that show they have what it takes to win the Kentucky Derby. Generally, these horses have longer odds. But that number also includes Dornoch, a popular longshot as a full brother to last year's winner, Mage. Even Catching Freedom, who scored highly in TheLines' historical comparison to find a Kentucky Derby winner, finds himself on the border. He needs a sizable jump.
Fierceness The Clear Favorite?
As with his Beyer Speed Figure, the top-line number would indicate Fierceness has an untouchable ceiling in this field. The -3.25 he posted in running away from the field in the Florida Derby stands out in this crowd.
However, note that Fierceness has alternated dominating and weaker performances in his career. His prior race clocked at 4.25. As a 2-year-old, he had a double-digit Thoro-Graph running seventh in a Champagne Stakes race.
If his pattern of alternating performances continues, Fierceness might find himself out of the running here.
Just Steel has followed a similar pattern albeit with weaker Thoro-Graph numbers. He has a high ceiling but may be due for regression after posting a 1 in the Arkansas Derby.
If it's consistency a bettor seeks, he or she should look to Sierra Leone, Just a Touch, and Forever Young. Just a Touch has three consecutive 2.5s.
Even more impressively, Forever Young has back-to-back 1s entering the Kentucky Derby. Bettors are still waiting for the first Kentucky Derby international horse to reach the roses. If these Thoro-Graph numbers are any indication, Forever Young has a strong chance to make history.
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