2024 Kentucky Derby Odds: Futures Pool No. 5 For 150th Run For The Roses

Written By Dave Bontempo | Last Updated
2024 kentucky derby odds

Sierra Leone is the morning line favorite in opening 2024 Kentucky Derby odds for Futures Pool No. 5, as gamblers seek bargains this weekend before the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 4. The Risen-Star stakes-winning Sierra Leone tops 40 individual options at 5-1, and Rebel Stakes champion Timberlake at 8-1 is the only other choice to open shorter than 10-1.

These KY Derby odds run from Friday at noon until Sunday at 6 p.m. ET, via pari-mutuel wagering. Odds on any bets you place may fluctuate and will not lock until 6 p.m. Sunday.

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2024 Kentucky Derby Odds: Futures Pool No. 5 Opening Odds

Bettors can obtain Kentucky Derby odds that are far more attractive than what most of this field would go off at if it reaches the big race. Twenty, at most, can enter the 150th Run for the Roses, which carries an unprecedented $5 million purse at Churchill Downs.

Click on the odds to bet now, once the pool opens Friday. It will be listed at FanDuel Racing as its own entity, alongside the other race tracks around the country.

NumberHorseMorning Line Odds
1Agate Road40-1
2Be You90-1
3Born Noble80-1
4Catching Freedom30-1
5Common Defense30-1
6Conquest Warrior25-1
7Corporate Power50-1
9Domestic Product30-1
11El Grande O90-1
14Epic Ride80-1
16Forever Young20-1
18Hall of Fame80-1
19Honor Marie40-1
20Just A Touch 30-1
21Just Steel80-1
22Lat Long80-1
23Le Dom Bro80-1
24Liberal Arts 40-1
25Mystik Dan 20-1
27No More Time50-1
28Resilience 50-1
29Seize the Grey90-1
30Sierra Leone 5-1
32The Wine Steward60-1
34Time for Truth90-1
35Top Conor90-1
36Track Phantom25-1
37Tuscan Gold80-1
38Tuscan Sky30-1
39Uncle Heavy80-1
40All Other 3-Year Olds

Kentucky Derby Futures Pool Schedule

This is the lineup for the two remaining betting windows to gain Kentucky Derby 2024 pari-mutuel odds before race week:

  • March 15-17 (Pool No. 5)
  • April 4-6 (Pool No. 6)

The Risk and Reward of the Futures Pool

Gamblers are paid handsomely now at odds that will plummet if a horse performs well or wins a major Road to the Kentucky Derby race.

A futures wager on the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds is not refunded if the horse does not run in the Derby. A gambler thus projects several training and race patterns into a belief on whether a horse will compete in Louisville.

Bettors can also wager on the exacta combinations.

Recent developments have underscored the importance of this format. Here’s a look around the circuit at what has changed since futures Pool No. 3 closed last month.

The Favorites

The biggest sentimental shift favors Sierra Leone, who went from 15-1 in Pool No. 4 to 5-1 now after his gallant slop-rallying triumph in the Risen Star.

Timberlake, highly publicized all winter, has been short-priced everywhere he goes. He was the odds-on betting choice at 4-5 for the Rebel and won’t stay under anyone’s radar.

The largest shift to longer odds goes to the “All  Other 3-Year-Olds” field bet, which is a field wager that a horse other than the 39 listed will win the Kentucky Derby. Those betting odds shot from 2-1 to 15-1, as officials believe the weeding-out process makes it more likely that the Kentucky Derby winner is on this list.

Dornach & Deterministic Gain Steam

Some horses have increased significantly off of one performance. A previous Futures Pool bet on them, in hindsight, may resemble the work of a genius.

Deterministic was 99-1 in the last pool. But he stretched out from seven furlongs to one mile and shook off a seven-month layoff to win the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct last month. Boom. He went down to 20-1. If he starts in the Derby, his odds will be nowhere near the 99-1 number, and thus, the early leap of faith with him will appear smart.

Dornoch has gone from 20-1 to 15-1 after his narrow victory in the field-shortened Fountain of Youth.

Longshots To Consider

Hades, who beat Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Fierceness decisively in the Holy Bull, is somehow 30-1 in this group. Fierceness is 12-1.

Hades is slated to appear in the Florida Derby on March 30. A  victory there would make him one of the Kentucky Derby favorites. If that happens, it will be hard to believe he was ever 30-1, as he is now.

Mystik Dan, who romped home in the Southwest Stakes at 20-1, is again 20-1 here. Bettors will see him next in the Arkansas Derby  March 30. Same story. A good performance there will make a 20-1 ticket now look like gold. And gamblers will remember that he won the Southwest by six lengths.

He also already has a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure on his resume.

Locked Off Road To Kentucky Derby

Locked was the 10-1 favorite in Pool 4, but trainer Todd Pletcher recently took him off the Triple Crown circuit. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher was first scratched the day of the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park when Fletcher wasn’t happy with his morning workout.

It was later reported that the son of Gun Runner suffered an injury to a ligament in the upper part of his left knee. Connections believe Locked will recover and perhaps join the racing circuit with the Travers at Saratoga in August.

But as for the Derby, he’s out. And any futures pool bets associated with him are now losing bets.

This training decision is not uncommon. For example, during the spring of 2021, Life Is Good was removed from the Kentucky Derby, for which he had qualified. He had suffered an apparent hind-end injury. Surgery removed a small chip in his left hind ankle.

Life is Good would return to win more than $4.5 million dollars, including victories in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, 2022 Pegasus World Cup and the Whitney Handicap.

He went 9-for-11 lifetime. But he just wasn’t ready for the Derby.

That’s why many bettors sprinkle futures wagers across several potential starters and don’t go heavy on one unless they have a conviction.

Timing Your Kentucky Derby Futures Pool No. 5 Bets

Unlike Pool No. 4, which had stakes races impacting live odds, nothing is going on to affect performance levels this weekend.

Barring injury news or trainers feeling dissatisfied with a horse’s progress, this betting window will simply be the gamblers’ view of the near future.

Good luck betting 2024 Kentucky Derby odds. There are still many excellent prices.