Kentucky Derby Odds & Predictions: Expert Picks, Including Journalism & Chunk Of Gold
With the post positions set and race-week betting lines fluctuating, the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is nearing. The most exciting time of the year at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, will begin at approximately 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, for the first leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown. Let’s break down the latest odds and predictions for the 2025 Kentucky Derby, with help from betting expert David Aragona of Daily Racing Form.
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Kentucky Derby morning-line odds
| Post Position | Horse | Morning-Line Odds | Updated Kentucky Derby odds | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | 14-1 | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia |
| 2. | Neoequos | 30-1 | 49-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Prat |
| 3. | Final Gambit | 30-1 | 15-1 | Brad Cox | Luan Machado |
| 4. | Rodriguez | 12-1 | Scratched | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith |
| 5. | American Promise | 30-1 | 12-1 | Wayne Lukas | Nik Juarez |
| 6. | Admire Daytona (JPN) | 30-1 | 39-1 | Yukihioro Kato | Christophe Lemaire |
| 7. | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | 12-1 | Noriyuki Hori | Joao Moreira |
| 8. | Journalism | 3-1 | 7-2 | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli |
| 9. | Burnham Square | 12-1 | 16-1 | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez, Jr. |
| 10. | Grande | 20-1 | Scratched | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez |
| 11. | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | 33-1 | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos |
| 12. | East Avenue | 20-1 | 34-1 | Brendan P. Walsh | Manny Franco |
| 13. | Publisher | 20-1 | 28-1 | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz, Jr. |
| 14. | Tiztastic | 20-1 | 18-1 | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario |
| 15. | Render Judgment | 30-1 | 13-1 | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux |
| 16. | Coal Battle | 30-1 | 27-1 | Lonnie Briley | Juan Vargas |
| 17. | Sandman | 6-1 | 5-1 | Mark Casse | Jose Ortiz |
| 18. | Sovereignty | 5-1 | 9-1 | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado |
| 19. | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | 29-1 | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry |
| 20. | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | 39-1 | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano |
| 21. | AE Baeza | N/A | 22-1 | John Shirreffs | Flavien Prat |
Is Journalism Rightfully Favored?
Per the morning-line odds, Journalism opened as a 3-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby after post positions were reported on Saturday evening. His odds have since lengthened to 5-2.
Journalism installed himself as a Derby contender with a win in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 14 before racing toward the front of the board with a victory at the San Felipe Stakes on March 1. His next start, which came in the Santa Anita Derby, was more arduous. There, he encountered some traffic trouble entering the clubhouse but utilized his closing speed on the stretch length to zip by the talented Baeza.
Journalism is the fastest horse in the Derby and has excellent closing speed. According to Aragona, he’s bred to thrive at the Derby distance of 1¼ miles. Still, no favorite has won the Kentucky Derby since eventual Triple Crown winner Justify did so in 2018.
“I set morning-line odds for races in New York … I’ve got Journalism pegged at 5-2 odds,” Aragona said on the Kentucky Derby podcast below. “While I think he [Journalism] is the most likely winner, I’m not looking to make a straight bet on a horse that’s that short of a price in the Kentucky Derby.”
Since 2000, just 29.2% of morning-line favorites have won the Kentucky Derby. However, closing favorites have won 43.5% of races since 2000.
A noteworthy change altered this trend for a short while. In 2012, the Derby implemented a new points system, limiting the number of outlier horses and increasing the overall strength of each field. Since that juncture, five morning-line favorites and six closing favorites have won the Derby.
Favorites have generally outperformed their odds year-over-year, particularly in exactas, with one horse closing less than 2-1 since 2000 (33.3% implied probability). As Aragona stated, the money wagered on a high-stakes field like the Kentucky Derby is spread around. With that in mind, contenders are unlikely to close near 2-1, even for a horse of Journalism’s pedigree.
Additionally, Aragona stated that he’ll presumably place Journalism in some exotic wagers, aiming to capitalize on a top-four finish or better.
Chunk Of Gold: A Worthy Longshot
If you buy into the notion that the son of Preservationist can maneuver the distance in the Derby, wagering on a closer like Chunk of Gold in trifectas and superfectas would add notable value to payouts. His five-furlong work, delivered in just over 59 seconds at Turfway Park on April 12, and late-closing style undoubtedly add plenty of intrigue.
“I like to find some horses in a race like the Kentucky Derby that are maybe going to fly under the radar a little bit,” Aragona said.
“… I think he’s [Chunk of Gold] on a short of horses that is moving forward at the right time and is going to appreciate the circumstances he’s going to face in the Kentucky Derby… He’s got such versality to where he can be placed early that I’m not so worried about him drawing so far outside in post No. 19.”
Chunk of Gold is priced at 30-1 at FanDuel Racing, providing hefty longshot odds. Then again, he may struggle to showcase his best attributes if he loses ground in more than one turn. Just five contestants in the field own a career Beyer Speed Figure worse than Chunk of Gold’s career-high of 92.
Aragona also mentioned that waiting for the market to settle in closer to post time could pay dividends, giving bettors a more valuable price on an unpopular longshot, such as Chunk of Gold.
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