The invitation list of Kentucky Derby horses is complete. Now it’s simply a matter of who accepts those invitations for the May 7 Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs.
Twenty post positions in the starting gate are available, with the field determined by a 48-race qualifying schedule that ran from the Iroquois on Sept. 18, 2021 at Churchill Downs until the April 16, 2022 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. Check back for more as Kentucky Derby betting odds will soon be finalized.
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Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Morning Line Odds
| Post | Horse | Latest odds (6:30 p.m. ET | Morning Line Odds | Trainer | Jockey | W-P-S (Races) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mo Donegal | 9-1 | 10-1 | Todd Pletcher | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 3-0-2 (5) |
| 2 | Happy Jack | 20-1 | 30-1 | Doug O'Neill | Rafael Bejarano | 0-0-2 (3) |
| 3 | Epicenter | 5-1 | 7-2 | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 4-1-0 (6) |
| 4 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 33-1 | 30-1 | Bhupat Seemar | Mickael Barzalona | 2-3-0 (7) |
| 5 | Smile Happy | 14-1 | 20-1 | Kenny McPeek | Corey Lanerie | 2-2-0 (4) |
| 6 | Messier (CAN) | 6-1 | 8-1 | Tim Yakteen* | John Velazquez | 3-3-0 (6) |
| 7 | Crown Pride (JPN) | 17-1 | 20-1 | Koichi Shintani | Christophe Lemaire | 3-0-0 (4) |
| 8 | Charge It | 15-1 | 20-1 | Todd Pletcher | Luis Saez | 1-2-0 (3) |
| 9 | Tiz the Bomb | 27-1 | 30-1 | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 5-1-0 (8) |
| 10 | Zandon | 6-1 | 3-1 | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat | 2-1-1 (4) |
| 11 | Pioneer of Medina | 53-1 | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher | Joe Bravo | 2-1-2 (6) |
| 12 | Taiba | 5-1 | 12-1 | Tim Yakteen* | Mike Smith | 2-0-0 (2) |
| 13 | Simplification | 35-1 | 20-1 | Antionio Sano | Jose Ortiz | 3-1-2 (7) |
| 14 | Barber Road | 54-1 | 30-1 | John Ortiz | Rey Gutierrez | 2-4-1 (8) |
| 15 | White Abarrio | 14-1 | 10-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Tyler Gaffalione | 4-0-1 (5) |
| 16 | Cyberknife | 15-1 | 20-1 | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 3-2-0 (6) |
| 17 | Classic Causway | 75-1 | 30-1 | Brian Lynch | Julien Leparoux | 3-1-1 (6) |
| 18 | Tawny Port | 74-1 | 30-1 | Brad Cox | Ricardo Santana Jr. | 3-1-0 (5) |
| 19 | Zozos | 43-1 | 20-1 | Brad Cox | Manny Franco | 2-1-0 (3) |
| 21 | Rich Strike | 80-1 | 30-1 | Eric Reed | Sonny Leon | 1-0-3 (7) |
Final Kentucky Derby Point Standings
| Rank | Horse | Points | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Epicenter | 164 | Steven M. Asmussen |
| 2 | Zandon | 114 | Chad Brown |
| 3 | White Abarrio | 112 | Saffie Joseph, Jr. |
| 4 | Mo Donegal | 112 | Todd Pletcher |
| 5 | Tiz the Bomb | 110 | Kenny McPeek |
| 6 | Cyberknife | 100 | Brad Cox |
| 7 | Crown Pride (JPN) | 100 | Koichi Shintani |
| 8 | Taiba | 100 | Tim Yakteen |
| 9 | Simplification | 74 | Antonio Sano |
| 10 | Smile Happy | 70 | Kenny McPeek |
| 11 | Classic Causway | 66 | Brian Lynch |
| 12 | Tawny Port | 60 | Brad Cox |
| 13 | Barber Road | 58 | John Ortiz |
| 14 | Un Ojo | 54 | Anthony W. Dutrow |
| 15 | Messier | 40 | Tim Yakteen |
| 16 | Zozos | 40 | Brad Cox |
| 17 | Summer Is Tomorrow | 40 | Bhupat Seemar |
| 18 | Charge It | 40 | Todd Pletcher |
| 19 | Happy Jack | 30 | Doug O'Neill |
| 20 | Pioneer of Medina | 25 | Todd Pletcher |
| 21 | In Due Time | 24 | Kelly Breen |
| 22 | Ethereal Road | 22 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| 23 | Rich Strike | 21 | Eric Reed |
| 24 | Rattle N Roll | 20 | Kenny McPeek |
From Epicenter at the top of the list to Happy Jack in 20th, owners of horses with the top 20-point totals are invited to the Derby.
If a horse’s connections decide not to run, it is removed from the standings with all those behind bumped up. That happens either when trainers believing the horse isn’t ready or owners believing their horse can’t compete well at the Derby.
This has already been the case with Forbidden Kingdom and Classic Causeway, high-profile qualifying-race winners who had enough points to reach enter the Derby. But their connections did not like how the horses handled recent races and their names were withdrawn.
Owners of a few entries outside the top 20 will be watching to see if anyone else won’t appear, opening the door for them.
Pioneer of Medina has 25 points and In Due Time shows 24. They would be the next positions given an invitation if others decline. Both were beaten decisively enough in major races, however, and their connections might decline an invitation as well.
Triple Crown Schedule
- 2022 Kentucky Derby – Saturday, May 7
- 2022 Preakness – Saturday, May 21
- 2022 Belmont Stakes – Saturday, June 11
Prep Race Highlights From Kentucky Derby Horses
The 2022 prep-race circuit was compelling right down to its finale. After Taiba, Mo Donegal and Zandon reaped headlines with 100-point victories in the respective Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes on April 9, Tawny Port made the most of the final Derby-qualifying event.
Winning the 20-point Lexington, he moved up to 11th, breaking the logjam at 40 points for what was then the final position. The qualifying system thus added significant clout to the final race on the campaign and impacted strategy for trainers and owners.
Here are some things handicappers will keep their eyes on leading up to the Derby.
Final Fractions Theory
A popular handicapping method for the Derby, this theory looks at which horses were running fastest in the final furlongs of their most recent prep race. We have the Kentucky Derby final furlong times here.
Which Kentucky Derby horses won the biggest races?
Each of these races were worth 100 points to the winner:
- Louisiana Derby: Epicenter
- Florida Derby: White Abarrio
- Arkansas Derby: Cyberknife
- Wood Memorial: Mo Donegal
- Blue Grass Stakes: Zandon
- Santa Anita Derby: Taiba
- UAE Derby: Crown Pride (JPN)
- Jeff Ruby Steaks: Tiz the Bomb
Top Beyer Speed Figures
There were three Kentucky Derby horses that posted 100+ BSFs. Messier and Taiba recorded a 103, tops on the list. Messier notched his 103 in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 6. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. Taiba also notched a 102 in winning the Santa Anita Derby April 9. He defeated Messier, who had a 99 in that race.
Epicenter earned a 102 in the Louisiana Derby on March 26.
10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. A horse doesn’t have to have earned a triple-digit BSF before the Derby to win, but it’s also difficult to make an enormous leap of 10+ from a career-best in a prep race and win the Derby.
The Bob Baffert Suspension Factor
Baffert’s suspension from and ongoing battle with Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Racing Commission resulted in him switching several horses to trainer Tim Yakteen in March. This enabled the horses to earn qualifying points they otherwise would not have been able to.
Two horses were positively impacted by this move. Messier, denied 10 points in the Robert B. Lewis under Baffert, gained the 40 qualifying points to reach the Kentucky Derby under Yakteen in securing second in the Santa Anita Derby. Taiba, a live Derby threat and former Baffert trainee, notched 100 points for Yakteen at the Santa Anita Derby.
