Tiz The Law, Nadal Lead 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 Odds

Written By FairwayJay on April 3, 2020

The Kentucky Derby has been rescheduled for Sept. 5, but betting on the Run for the Roses continues with Pool 4 of the 2020 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW). The three-day run begins April 3 at 12 p.m. ET and continues through April 5 at 6 p.m. ET, allowing bettors to get their wagers in on the top three-year-old contenders in the world.

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia has set the odds and installed the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Olds” as the 5-2 morning line favorite. However, the individual interests expected to take much of the betting action in Pool 4 of the KDFW is headlined by two horses both at 6-1 odds: Florida Derby winner Tiz the Law and Rebel Stakes winner Nadal.

Bets can be placed at Churchill Downs Racetrack, online wagering outlets like TVG racebook, and satellite wagering centers across North America.

The rescheduled Kentucky Derby does not void previous KDFW bets, so wagers placed in Pools 1, 2 and 3 along with this weekend’s Pool 4 will be considered ‘action’, and not refunded.

Churchill Downs announced the decision following the change of date to the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

“We took into account precedents and how other sports betting outlets handle similar wagers on future sporting events such as the NBA,” said Churchill Downs Racetrack spokesperson Darren Rogers. “The final consensus is all bets are ‘action’ as long as a winner is declared in 2020. The majority of tickets possessed have promising prospects and high potential. At the time of the rescheduling of the Derby, more than 75 percent of the money in the three Win pools of the previous Future Wagers was on well-meant horses within many Top 20 lists.”

Pool 4 consists of 23 individual horses and betting interests plus a mutuel field for 24 total entries.

Kentucky Derby future wager poll 4 odds

Final odds and total amount wagered with $2 win bets are updated following the wagering period on April 5.

No.HorseOpening Odds
5Ete Indien20-1
7Gouverneur Morris30-1
8Honor A.P.12-1
9King Guillermo20-1
10Major Fed50-1
11Max Player50-1
13Mischievieous Alex30-1
16Ny Traffic50-1
18 Sole Volante 30-1
19Storm the Court50-1
20Thousand Words30-1
21Three Technique50-1
22Tiz the Law6-1
23Wells Bayou30-1
24All Other 3-Year-Olds5-2

What is a future pool?

The Kentucky Derby Future Wager allows fans to bet early on the Run for the Roses and wager on which horse they feel will earn a spot in the starting game and ultimately win the Kentucky Derby. Pool 4 is the final chance to wager on a horse to win the Kentucky Derby well in advance of the race.

There is risk and even more potential reward in future wagers this year as some of the major Derby prep races have been postponed or canceled. Part of the risk is wagering on a horse that may not earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. As such, there would be no refund as all future wagers are final. The reward is getting better odds on horses well in advance of the race or anticipating a longshot has promising potential to make the Derby field and can potentially win the race.

Pool 3 had $260,270 wagered in the Win pool and the most money was wagered on ‘All Others’ (4-1), which took in $41,456. Authentic (6-1) led the individual entries with $28,699. Just behind was Tiz the Law (7-1) with $25,876 and Nadal (10-1) with $19,142. Next in order of closing odds was Charlatan (12-1), Honor A.P. (14-1), Maxfield (15-1) and Ete Indien (16-1).

Pool 2 had $439,694 in Win pool wagers led by Nadal and Tiz the Law, who both closed at 8-1 odds and combined for more than 74,000 in win wagers and 23% of the total money bet to win on the 23 individual entries. The Field (All others) had $116,892 in win wagers and closed at 2-1 odds. Pool 1 had $284,317 wagered in the Win pool.

Uncertainty on the road to the Kentucky Derby 

The horses that accumulate the most points along the Derby trail through 35 qualifying races and finish in the top 20 of the points leaderboard earn a spot into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.

There are currently 10 horses that have earned at least 50 points. In each year since 2013 when the points system began using qualifying races and awarding points to the top-4 finishers, the 50 point plateau has earned a horse a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.

The current top-10 points earners are:

  1. Tiz the Law (122)
  2. Wells Bayou (104)
  3. Ete Indien (74)
  4. Modernist (70)
  5. Authentic (60)’
  6. Mr. Monomoy (52)
  7. Nadal (50)
  8. Mischevious Alex (50)
  9. Ny Traffic (50)
  10. King Guillermo (50)

However, the uncertainty surrounding races due to COVID-19 and major Derby prep races being postponed makes wagering on the KDFW Pool 4 a bigger risk. The March 28 UAE Derby in Dubai was canceled. Early April preps like the Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and Blue Grass Stakes have all be postponed with no make-up date yet determined. The Arkansas Derby was rescheduled to May 2. Two other minor prep races have been canceled — The Sunland Derby in New Mexico and the Lexington Stakes in Kentucky.

There is also likely to be additional qualifying races added to the Derby trail this summer as the situation surrounding COVID-19 and the ability of racetracks to resume racing becomes more clear.

Follow the updates in our Kentucky Derby Betting Guide along with additional odds, analysis, horses to watch and picks for America’s biggest race on Sept. 5.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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