2022 Kentucky Derby Odds: Exploring Final Fractions Theory

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 3, 2022
Kentucky Derby Odds

We’re inching closer to one of the biggest, most popular sports betting events of the calendar year — the 148th Kentucky Derby. One of the metrics bettors employ for their prep is Final Fractions Theory. Let’s dive into the numbers behind this idea and which horses stand out for it.

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Kentucky Derby Final Fractions For The Field

For starters, the Final Fractions Theory was conceptualized by Jennie Rees — a former Louisville turf writer and publicist. Within it, a horse’s final furlong time applies to his last prep race of at least 1 1/8 miles towards whether he’ll flourish at 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky Derby. The same notion equates to the usage of the last three furlong times.

The formula is for the horse to go no slower than 13.0 seconds within his final furlong time or 38.0 seconds in his last three furlongs.

Keep in mind, 27 of the previous 31 Kentucky Derby winners have met this criteria. The latest exception was Medina Spirit — last year’s victorious horse. Mandaloun was crowned the Derby champion after Medina Spirit’s failed his post-race drug test, but for betting purposes, Medina Spirit tickets were the ones that cashed on Derby Day. So this theory didn’t work last year, but it worked for 10 consecutive Derbies before 2021.

Below are the final and last three furlong times from each horse’s most recent prep race, juxtaposed with the closing odds of Churchill Downs’ most recent Kentucky Derby futures pool.

Post/NumberHorseOddsLast 1fLast 3f
1Mo Donegal10-111.935.5
9Tiz the Bomb30-112.737
14Barber Road30-112.939.2
5Smile Happy20-11337.8
18Tawny Port30-113.137.2
20Ethereal Road30-113.639.2
8Charge It20-113.939.7
15White Abarrio10-114.139.7
7Crown Pride20-114.541
4Summer Is Tomorrow30-11541.8
11Pioneer of Medina30-1N/AN/A
17Classic Causeway30-1N/AN/A

Applying Final Fraction Theory

Seven horses ran their final furlong and final three furlongs in less than 13.0 and 38 seconds, respectively. Another four fit one of the splits. So in 2022, it’s perhaps a method of eliminating horses versus finding the winner, but in a field of 20, that can also be helpful too.

As shown above, the four shortest odds to win the 2022 Kentucky Derby all generate necessary final fractions — in both respects. Taiba will also be among the favorites on Derby Day, after not being listed in the most recent Derby futures pool. Looking down the odds board, Zozos (+2000), trained by Brad Cox and bred/owned by Barry and Joni Butzow, possesses more “value” for the theory. Zozos also posted a solid 98 Beyer Speed Figure in a second-place finish in the Louisiana Derby to Epicenter.

Even if you go a different route for your outright Kentucky Derby odds, it may be worth considering Zozos in your exotic wagers.

Continue the discussion in our Discord betting chat, where bettors chat about their favorite Kentucky Derby wagers. Follow TheLines on Twitter.

Full 2022 Kentucky Derby Field, Odds

PostHorseLatest odds (6:30 p.m. ETMorning Line OddsTrainerJockeyW-P-S (Races)
1Mo Donegal9-110-1Todd PletcherIrad Ortiz Jr.3-0-2 (5)
2Happy Jack20-130-1Doug O'NeillRafael Bejarano0-0-2 (3)
3Epicenter5-17-2Steve AsmussenJoel Rosario4-1-0 (6)
4Summer Is Tomorrow33-130-1Bhupat SeemarMickael Barzalona2-3-0 (7)
5Smile Happy14-120-1Kenny McPeekCorey Lanerie2-2-0 (4)
6Messier (CAN)6-18-1Tim Yakteen*John Velazquez3-3-0 (6)
7Crown Pride (JPN)17-120-1Koichi ShintaniChristophe Lemaire3-0-0 (4)
8Charge It15-120-1Todd PletcherLuis Saez1-2-0 (3)
9Tiz the Bomb27-130-1Kenny McPeekBrian Hernandez Jr.5-1-0 (8)
10Zandon6-13-1Chad BrownFlavien Prat2-1-1 (4)
11Pioneer of Medina53-130-1Todd PletcherJoe Bravo2-1-2 (6)
12Taiba5-112-1Tim Yakteen*Mike Smith2-0-0 (2)
13Simplification35-120-1Antionio SanoJose Ortiz3-1-2 (7)
14Barber Road54-130-1John OrtizRey Gutierrez2-4-1 (8)
15White Abarrio14-110-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Tyler Gaffalione4-0-1 (5)
16Cyberknife15-120-1Brad CoxFlorent Geroux3-2-0 (6)
17Classic Causway75-130-1Brian LynchJulien Leparoux3-1-1 (6)
18Tawny Port74-130-1Brad CoxRicardo Santana Jr.3-1-0 (5)
19Zozos43-120-1Brad CoxManny Franco2-1-0 (3)
21Rich Strike80-130-1Eric ReedSonny Leon1-0-3 (7)

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich