2023 Kentucky Derby: Best Brisnet Speed Figures In Field

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on May 5, 2023
Kentucky Derby Brisnet

Kentucky Derby week has arrived and bettors everywhere are working to divine their picks. One tool that may help handicapping decisions is the use of Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Figures. These numbers help show which horses have the top relative speeds in the field.

Let’s take a look at Kentucky Derby Brisnet numbers and see which horses stand out.

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Brisnet Speed Figures For 2023

Brisnet Speed Ratings use a computer projection to compare different horses’ running times across different tracks. Note that they don’t apply to horses that have not run on North American tracks. However, Mandarin Hero (JPN), despite being a foreign horse, did run at the Santa Anita Derby and therefore has one rating.

Here’s how the 2023 Kentucky Derby field breaks down in terms of Brisnet ratings. Note that the table is sortable:

PostHorseMorning Line OddsCareer-Best BrisnetLast Brisnet
1Hit Show35-19999
3Two Phil's8-1107107
4Confidence Game20-19595
5Tapit Trice6-1102102
10Practical MoveSCR105100
12Jace's Road42-19691
13Sun Thunder36-19695
14Angel of Empire6-1101101
16Raise Cain39-19494
17Derma Sotogake (JPN)8-1N/AN/A
18Rocket Can38-19896
19Lord MilesSCR9999
20Continuar (JPN)SCRN/AN/A
21Cyclone Mischief44-19797
22Mandarin Hero (JPN)27-1100100
23King Russell44-19696

Notes On 2023 Kentucky Derby Field Via Brisnet Ratings

  • Per TheLines editor Stephen Andress’ handicapping, most Kentucky Derby winners have a Brisnet rating of at least 100 prior to the race.
  • After previously unremarkable results, Two Phil’s crushed the competition in the Jeff Ruby Steaks with a win by 5 lengths. Without another run backing up that sort of speed, is that result an outlier?
  • Practical Move and Forte rank next. Unlike Two Phil’s, each of those horses has at least two more triple-digit ratings (Forte has three). They’ll be among the favorites come post time. (Editor’s note: Practical Move scratched.)
  • Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Verifying also have a big rating. Angel of Empire stands out coming off two wins in a row against Kentucky Derby competition.
  • Possible alternate horses Mandarin Hero (JPN) and Major Dude each have a strong recent result coming runner-up to a top Derby competitor. Mandarin Hero ran second in the Santa Anita Derby (his only stateside run) to Practical Move, while Major Dude ran second in the Jeff Ruby to the aforementioned Two Phil’s.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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