Kentucky Derby week has arrived and bettors everywhere are working to divine their picks. One tool that may help handicapping decisions is the use of Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Figures. These numbers help show which horses have the top relative speeds in the field.
Let’s take a look at Kentucky Derby Brisnet numbers and see which horses stand out.
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Brisnet Speed Figures For 2023
Brisnet Speed Ratings use a computer projection to compare different horses’ running times across different tracks. Note that they don’t apply to horses that have not run on North American tracks. However, Mandarin Hero (JPN), despite being a foreign horse, did run at the Santa Anita Derby and therefore has one rating.
Here’s how the 2023 Kentucky Derby field breaks down in terms of Brisnet ratings. Note that the table is sortable:
| Post | Horse | Morning Line Odds | Career-Best Brisnet | Last Brisnet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | 35-1 | 99 | 99 |
| 2 | Verifying | 18-1 | 102 | 102 |
| 3 | Two Phil's | 8-1 | 107 | 107 |
| 4 | Confidence Game | 20-1 | 95 | 95 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | 6-1 | 102 | 102 |
| 6 | Kingsbarns | 11-1 | 98 | 98 |
| 7 | Reincarnate | 15-1 | 98 | 96 |
| 8 | Mage | 20-1 | 101 | 99 |
| 9 | Skinner | SCR | 99 | 99 |
| 10 | Practical Move | SCR | 105 | 100 |
| 11 | Disarm | 25-1 | 97 | 97 |
| 12 | Jace's Road | 42-1 | 96 | 91 |
| 13 | Sun Thunder | 36-1 | 96 | 95 |
| 14 | Angel of Empire | 6-1 | 101 | 101 |
| 15 | Forte | 7-2 | 103 | 100 |
| 16 | Raise Cain | 39-1 | 94 | 94 |
| 17 | Derma Sotogake (JPN) | 8-1 | N/A | N/A |
| 18 | Rocket Can | 38-1 | 98 | 96 |
| 19 | Lord Miles | SCR | 99 | 99 |
| 20 | Continuar (JPN) | SCR | N/A | N/A |
| 21 | Cyclone Mischief | 44-1 | 97 | 97 |
| 22 | Mandarin Hero (JPN) | 27-1 | 100 | 100 |
| 23 | King Russell | 44-1 | 96 | 96 |
- What time does the Kentucky Derby start? Click this link to stay up to date on the Run for the Roses schedule.
Notes On 2023 Kentucky Derby Field Via Brisnet Ratings
- Per TheLines editor Stephen Andress’ handicapping, most Kentucky Derby winners have a Brisnet rating of at least 100 prior to the race.
- After previously unremarkable results, Two Phil’s crushed the competition in the Jeff Ruby Steaks with a win by 5 lengths. Without another run backing up that sort of speed, is that result an outlier?
- Practical Move and Forte rank next. Unlike Two Phil’s, each of those horses has at least two more triple-digit ratings (Forte has three). They’ll be among the favorites come post time. (Editor’s note: Practical Move scratched.)
- Angel of Empire, Tapit Trice, and Verifying also have a big rating. Angel of Empire stands out coming off two wins in a row against Kentucky Derby competition.
- Possible alternate horses Mandarin Hero (JPN) and Major Dude each have a strong recent result coming runner-up to a top Derby competitor. Mandarin Hero ran second in the Santa Anita Derby (his only stateside run) to Practical Move, while Major Dude ran second in the Jeff Ruby to the aforementioned Two Phil’s.
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