2022 Kentucky Derby: Best Brisnet Speed Figures In Field

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 3, 2022
Kentucky Derby Brisnet

The NBA postseason is underway and the Stanley Cup Playoffs tee off on May 2, but we’ve yet to note one of the most popular betting events this time of year — Kentucky Derby 148. Let’s break down the significance of the Kentucky Derby Brisnet speed figures and how they apply to betting this historic race.

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Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Figures For The Field

Horses listed in order of the Kentucky Derby points standings. Odds listed are from the final Kentucky Derby futures pool offered by Churchill Downs.

Any asterisk denotes the horse wasn’t specifically offered in that pool and included in “all other horses”, which closed with odds of 18-1.

Crown Pride (JPN) and Summer is Tomorrow competed overseas; therefore, they do not have any Brisnet figures, as it is only used at American tracks.

Post PositionsHorseOddsLast BrisnetRaceDateCareer-Best BrisnetRace Date
1Mo Donegal10-1111Wood MemorialApril 9, 2022111Wood MemorialApril 9, 2022
2Happy Jack30-197Santa Anita DerbyApril 9, 202297Santa Anita DerbyApril 9, 2022
3Epicenter7-2101Louisiana DerbyMarch 26, 2022101Louisiana DerbyMarch 26, 2022
4Summer Is Tomorrow30-1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
5Smile Happy20-1101Blue Grass StakesApril 9, 2022101Blue Grass StakesApril 9, 2022
6Messier8-1108Santa Anita DerbyApril 9, 2022108Santa Anita DerbyApril 9, 2022
7Crown Pride (JPN)20-1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
8Charge It20-194Florida Derby April 2, 202298MDN 60KFeb. 12, 2022
9Tiz the Bomb30-1101Jeff Ruby StakesApril 2, 2022101Jeff Ruby StakesApril 2, 2022
10Zandon3-1103Blue Grass StakesApril 9, 2022103Blue Grass StakesApril 9, 2022
11Pioneer of Medina30-196Louisiana DerbyMarch 26, 202296Louisiana DerbyMarch 26, 2022
12Taiba12-1111Santa Anita DerbyApril 9, 2022111Santa Anita DerbyApril 9, 2022
13Simplification20-193Florida Derby April 2, 202295Fountain of Youth StakesMarch 5, 2022
14Barber Road30-191Arkansas DerbyApril 2, 202293Lively Shively StakesNov. 27, 2022
15White Abarrio10-196Florida Derby April 2, 202297Holy Bull StakesFeb. 5, 2022
16Cyberknife20-194Arkansas DerbyApril 2, 202294Arkansas DerbyApril 2, 2022
17Classic Causeway30-1N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
18Tawny Port30-190Lexington Stakes April 16, 202299Jeff Ruby StakesApril 2, 2022
19Zozos20-198Louisiana DerbyMarch 26, 202298Louisiana DerbyMarch 26, 2022
20Ethernal Road30-186Lexington Stakes April 16, 202291Blue Grass StakesApril 9, 2022

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Notable Horses

Similar to the Final Fractions Theory, Brisnet speed figures provides bettors with another tool to help examine the field. They employ pace numbers at various points in a race to contextualize a horse’s tempo in the beginning and end of a race. Like Beyer Speed Figures, it’s a method of grading and comparing horses across different races and different tracks.

Comparing Kentucky Derby odds with Brisnet figures, Taiba will likely be among the favorites on race day after not being included in the final Churchill Downs futures pool. The chestnut colt also met the necessary final furlong criteria from the Final Fractions Theory.

For that particular concept, 27 of the previous 31 Kentucky Derby winners have gone no slower than 13.0 seconds within the final furlong time or 38.0 seconds in his last three furlongs in the race before the main event.

Dark Horses

The two horses that were separated by less than a head at the wire in the Wood Memorial, Mo Donegal and Early Voting, matched Taiba’s top Brisnet in this field. Futures bettors didn’t put either among the favorites in April. Could one of these two horses present value on the first Saturday in May on win tickets or as part of exotics? Keep an eye on their odds race week.

A bit down the odds board is Zozos (+4000), delivering a 98 Brisnet prior to the Derby. Florent Geroux’s horse is another intriguing name to consider.

Horses To Fade?

Morello (+1500) and Un Ojo (+1800) each struggled in their most recent outings, respectively. Like any metric, it depends how much you weight short-term results — especially for a 20-horse race that could deliver variance.

Last year, we saw Mandaloun perform poorly in his final prep race but had a strong Brisnet prior to that race on his resume. He finished second in the Derby. Perhaps Morello fits that mold after a poor 87 Brisnet in his most recent race but earned a 99 in the Gotham in March. With a poor run his last time out, his odds should be more attractive in Louisville.

Continue the discussion in our Discord betting chat, where bettors chat about their favorite Kentucky Derby wagers. Follow TheLines on Twitter.

Full 2022 Kentucky Derby Field, Odds

PostHorseLatest odds (6:30 p.m. ETMorning Line OddsTrainerJockeyW-P-S (Races)
1Mo Donegal9-110-1Todd PletcherIrad Ortiz Jr.3-0-2 (5)
2Happy Jack20-130-1Doug O'NeillRafael Bejarano0-0-2 (3)
3Epicenter5-17-2Steve AsmussenJoel Rosario4-1-0 (6)
4Summer Is Tomorrow33-130-1Bhupat SeemarMickael Barzalona2-3-0 (7)
5Smile Happy14-120-1Kenny McPeekCorey Lanerie2-2-0 (4)
6Messier (CAN)6-18-1Tim Yakteen*John Velazquez3-3-0 (6)
7Crown Pride (JPN)17-120-1Koichi ShintaniChristophe Lemaire3-0-0 (4)
8Charge It15-120-1Todd PletcherLuis Saez1-2-0 (3)
9Tiz the Bomb27-130-1Kenny McPeekBrian Hernandez Jr.5-1-0 (8)
10Zandon6-13-1Chad BrownFlavien Prat2-1-1 (4)
11Pioneer of Medina53-130-1Todd PletcherJoe Bravo2-1-2 (6)
12Taiba5-112-1Tim Yakteen*Mike Smith2-0-0 (2)
13Simplification35-120-1Antionio SanoJose Ortiz3-1-2 (7)
14Barber Road54-130-1John OrtizRey Gutierrez2-4-1 (8)
15White Abarrio14-110-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Tyler Gaffalione4-0-1 (5)
16Cyberknife15-120-1Brad CoxFlorent Geroux3-2-0 (6)
17Classic Causway75-130-1Brian LynchJulien Leparoux3-1-1 (6)
18Tawny Port74-130-1Brad CoxRicardo Santana Jr.3-1-0 (5)
19Zozos43-120-1Brad CoxManny Franco2-1-0 (3)
21Rich Strike80-130-1Eric ReedSonny Leon1-0-3 (7)

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich