The NBA postseason is underway and the Stanley Cup Playoffs tee off on May 2, but we’ve yet to note one of the most popular betting events this time of year — Kentucky Derby 148. Let’s break down the significance of the Kentucky Derby Brisnet speed figures and how they apply to betting this historic race.
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Kentucky Derby Brisnet Speed Figures For The Field
Horses listed in order of the Kentucky Derby points standings. Odds listed are from the final Kentucky Derby futures pool offered by Churchill Downs.
Any asterisk denotes the horse wasn’t specifically offered in that pool and included in “all other horses”, which closed with odds of 18-1.
Crown Pride (JPN) and Summer is Tomorrow competed overseas; therefore, they do not have any Brisnet figures, as it is only used at American tracks.
|Post Positions||Horse||Odds||Last Brisnet||Race||Date||Career-Best Brisnet||Race||Date|
|1||Mo Donegal||10-1||111||Wood Memorial||April 9, 2022||111||Wood Memorial||April 9, 2022|
|2||Happy Jack||30-1||97||Santa Anita Derby||April 9, 2022||97||Santa Anita Derby||April 9, 2022|
|3||Epicenter||7-2||101||Louisiana Derby||March 26, 2022||101||Louisiana Derby||March 26, 2022|
|4||Summer Is Tomorrow||30-1||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|5||Smile Happy||20-1||101||Blue Grass Stakes||April 9, 2022||101||Blue Grass Stakes||April 9, 2022|
|6||Messier||8-1||108||Santa Anita Derby||April 9, 2022||108||Santa Anita Derby||April 9, 2022|
|7||Crown Pride (JPN)||20-1||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|
|8||Charge It||20-1||94||Florida Derby||April 2, 2022||98||MDN 60K||Feb. 12, 2022|
|9||Tiz the Bomb||30-1||101||Jeff Ruby Stakes||April 2, 2022||101||Jeff Ruby Stakes||April 2, 2022|
|10||Zandon||3-1||103||Blue Grass Stakes||April 9, 2022||103||Blue Grass Stakes||April 9, 2022|
|11||Pioneer of Medina||30-1||96||Louisiana Derby||March 26, 2022||96||Louisiana Derby||March 26, 2022|
|12||Taiba||12-1||111||Santa Anita Derby||April 9, 2022||111||Santa Anita Derby||April 9, 2022|
|13||Simplification||20-1||93||Florida Derby||April 2, 2022||95||Fountain of Youth Stakes||March 5, 2022|
|14||Barber Road||30-1||91||Arkansas Derby||April 2, 2022||93||Lively Shively Stakes||Nov. 27, 2022|
|15||White Abarrio||10-1||96||Florida Derby||April 2, 2022||97||Holy Bull Stakes||Feb. 5, 2022|
|16||Cyberknife||20-1||94||Arkansas Derby||April 2, 2022||94||Arkansas Derby||April 2, 2022|
|18||Tawny Port||30-1||90||Lexington Stakes||April 16, 2022||99||Jeff Ruby Stakes||April 2, 2022|
|19||Zozos||20-1||98||Louisiana Derby||March 26, 2022||98||Louisiana Derby||March 26, 2022|
|20||Ethernal Road||30-1||86||Lexington Stakes||April 16, 2022||91||Blue Grass Stakes||April 9, 2022|
Similar to the Final Fractions Theory, Brisnet speed figures provides bettors with another tool to help examine the field. They employ pace numbers at various points in a race to contextualize a horse’s tempo in the beginning and end of a race. Like Beyer Speed Figures, it’s a method of grading and comparing horses across different races and different tracks.
Comparing Kentucky Derby odds with Brisnet figures, Taiba will likely be among the favorites on race day after not being included in the final Churchill Downs futures pool. The chestnut colt also met the necessary final furlong criteria from the Final Fractions Theory.
For that particular concept, 27 of the previous 31 Kentucky Derby winners have gone no slower than 13.0 seconds within the final furlong time or 38.0 seconds in his last three furlongs in the race before the main event.
The two horses that were separated by less than a head at the wire in the Wood Memorial, Mo Donegal and
Early Voting, matched Taiba’s top Brisnet in this field. Futures bettors didn’t put either among the favorites in April. Could one of these two horses present value on the first Saturday in May on win tickets or as part of exotics? Keep an eye on their odds race week.
A bit down the odds board is Zozos (+4000), delivering a 98 Brisnet prior to the Derby. Florent Geroux’s horse is another intriguing name to consider.
Horses To Fade?
Morello (+1500) and
Un Ojo (+1800) each struggled in their most recent outings, respectively. Like any metric, it depends how much you weight short-term results — especially for a 20-horse race that could deliver variance.
Last year, we saw Mandaloun perform poorly in his final prep race but had a strong Brisnet prior to that race on his resume. He finished second in the Derby. Perhaps Morello fits that mold after a poor 87 Brisnet in his most recent race but earned a 99 in the Gotham in March. With a poor run his last time out, his odds should be more attractive in Louisville.
Full 2022 Kentucky Derby Field, Odds
|Post||Horse||Latest odds (6:30 p.m. ET||Morning Line Odds||Trainer||Jockey||W-P-S (Races)|
|1||Mo Donegal||9-1||10-1||Todd Pletcher||Irad Ortiz Jr.||3-0-2 (5)|
|2||Happy Jack||20-1||30-1||Doug O'Neill||Rafael Bejarano||0-0-2 (3)|
|3||Epicenter||5-1||7-2||Steve Asmussen||Joel Rosario||4-1-0 (6)|
|4||Summer Is Tomorrow||33-1||30-1||Bhupat Seemar||Mickael Barzalona||2-3-0 (7)|
|5||Smile Happy||14-1||20-1||Kenny McPeek||Corey Lanerie||2-2-0 (4)|
|6||Messier (CAN)||6-1||8-1||Tim Yakteen*||John Velazquez||3-3-0 (6)|
|7||Crown Pride (JPN)||17-1||20-1||Koichi Shintani||Christophe Lemaire||3-0-0 (4)|
|8||Charge It||15-1||20-1||Todd Pletcher||Luis Saez||1-2-0 (3)|
|9||Tiz the Bomb||27-1||30-1||Kenny McPeek||Brian Hernandez Jr.||5-1-0 (8)|
|10||Zandon||6-1||3-1||Chad Brown||Flavien Prat||2-1-1 (4)|
|11||Pioneer of Medina||53-1||30-1||Todd Pletcher||Joe Bravo||2-1-2 (6)|
|12||Taiba||5-1||12-1||Tim Yakteen*||Mike Smith||2-0-0 (2)|
|13||Simplification||35-1||20-1||Antionio Sano||Jose Ortiz||3-1-2 (7)|
|14||Barber Road||54-1||30-1||John Ortiz||Rey Gutierrez||2-4-1 (8)|
|15||White Abarrio||14-1||10-1||Saffie Joseph Jr.||Tyler Gaffalione||4-0-1 (5)|
|16||Cyberknife||15-1||20-1||Brad Cox||Florent Geroux||3-2-0 (6)|
|17||Classic Causway||75-1||30-1||Brian Lynch||Julien Leparoux||3-1-1 (6)|
|18||Tawny Port||74-1||30-1||Brad Cox||Ricardo Santana Jr.||3-1-0 (5)|
|19||Zozos||43-1||20-1||Brad Cox||Manny Franco||2-1-0 (3)|
|21||Rich Strike||80-1||30-1||Eric Reed||Sonny Leon||1-0-3 (7)|