2022 Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figure Rankings For Every Horse

The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. The most exciting two minutes in sports doubles as a betting bonanza as well. Before you place your wagers on the Derby, you'll want the skinny on the horses. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. Below we'll explore Kentucky Derby odds Beyer Speed Figure ratings.

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What Is A Beyer Speed Figure?

BSFs were created by Andy Beyer and are a system for rating the performance of horses in North America. Overall, the number reflects the time of the race and the inherent speed of the track over which it was run. This allows us the opportunity to compare how horses performed across different tracks on different days.

Why do we care? 10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. A horse doesn’t have to have earned a triple-digit BSF before the Derby to win, but it’s also difficult to make an enormous leap of 10+ from a career-best in a prep race and win the Derby.

Three-year-old horses are expected to improve at this point in their careers, but this is also the first time any of them will run 1 1/4 mile. Every race since has been shorter. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression.

For example, Messier posted a 98 Beyer in his most recent race but also has a 103 on his resume, indicating a consistent high-level performer. Anything can happen in a 20-horse race, but this is one example of consistent, positive past performances. Combining BSFs with other metrics like Brisnet Speed Figures and final furlong times gives us a more complete picture of this field.

Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figures

Odds are estimates, as the opening morning line odds will not be released by Churchill Downs until the post position draw a few days before the first Saturday in May.

Note that Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow do not have relevant Beyer Speed Figures due to running outside the United States. Crown Pride hails from Japan while Summer Is Tomorrow, despite a Kentucky breeding, has been racing in Dubai. This makes them wild cards of sorts, with the odds estimate reflecting the uncertainty.

Notable Horses

Messier, Taiba and Epicenter have run the strongest of the horses in the field. Un Ojo Ethereal Road and Happy Jack have the lowest career-best BSFs. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. Hence, their status as longshots.

Only Epicenter and Taiba hit triple digits in their most recent race. Morello performed the worst last time out, surprisingly after winning his first three races. It's important to look at multiple data points, especially in the case of an unusually high or low number, such as that of Morello.

Make sure you keep an eye out in the coming weeks for any changes to the Kentucky Derby field. As any horses drop out and new horses are elevated into the field, we can adjust the chart accordingly.

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Full 2022 Kentucky Derby Field, Odds

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