Kentucky Derby Betting: Strong Trend Immediately Tosses 6 From Win Bets

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Published at May 2, 2024

Kentucky Derby odds are near the top of the list among popular sports betting events. There are only a few days left to place your wagers, and TheLines is here to assist. There are many alluring angles to sift through to find the 150th Run for the Roses winner, including one that involves their final prep races before the race. Let's dig into this Kentucky Derby betting trend.

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what is the Final prep race trend?

Over the last 27 Kentucky Derbys, 24 winners finished in the top two of their most recent prep race. The other three victors landed in the top four of their respective prep races. Hence, success tends to carry over at Churchill Downs. Below, you'll find the results of each Derby contestant.

Post Position	Horse	Morning-Line Odds	Final Prep Race	Result
1.	Dornoch	20-1	Blue Grass Stakes	4th
2.	Sierra Leone	3-1	Blue Grass Stakes	1st
3.	Mystik Dan	20-1	Arkansas Derby	3rd
4.	Catching Freedom	8-1	Louisiana Derby	1st
5.	Catalytic	30-1	Florida Derby	2nd
6.	Just Steel	20-1	Arkansas Derby	2nd
7.	Honor Marie	20-1	Louisiana Derby	2nd
8.	Just A Touch	10-1	Blue Grass Stakes	2nd
10.	T O Password (JPN)	30-1	Fukuryu Stakes	1st
11.	Forever Young	10-1	UAE Derby	1st
12.	Track Phantom	20-1	Louisiana Derby	4th
13.	West Saratoga	50-1	Jeff Ruby Stakes	2nd
14.	Endlessly	30-1	Jeff Ruby Stakes	1st
15.	Domestic Product	30-1	Tampa Bay Derby	1st
16.	Grand Mo The First	50-1	Florida Derby	3rd
17.	Fierceness	5-2	Florida Derby	1st
18.	Stronghold	20-1	San Anita Derby	1st
19.	Resilience	20-1	Wood Memorial	1st
20.	Society Man	50-1	Wood Memorial	2nd
21.	Epic Ride	30-1	Blue Grass Stakes	3rd
22.	Mugatu (AE)	30-1	Blue Grass Stakes	5th

Prep Race Takeaways

Per the table, 15 horses finished top two in their respective contests, and six others finished third or fourth. Granted, only a few can deliver stellar results. But it gives us a sense of which longshots are worth monitoring for exactas, and trifectas, superfectas.

Mystik Dan, who finished third in the Arkansas Derby, has caught the attention of Dave Bontempo, TheLines.com's horse-racing guru, plus another expert. Moreover, the speedy three-year-old tallied his top Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in sloppy conditions at the Southwest Stakes in February. Similar weather could be en route for Saturday's most anticipated race.