Kansas vs. UConn College Basketball Odds: Which March Madness Contender Covers?
In this year’s Big East-Big 12 Battle, Friday’s top-five matchup between Kansas and UConn at Allen Fieldhouse takes the cake. This game also features the last two national champions. The No. 5 Jayhawks are home favorites, and the No. 4 Huskies are to win straight up. Elsewhere, the total is stationed at . Let’s break down Kansas vs. UConn odds, including key metrics to hone in on.
UConn vs. kansas betting odds
How Did We Get Here?
Although the Huskies saw their two leading scorers depart, plus an elite playmaker in Andre Jackson, they haven’t missed a beat. Plugging 7-foot-2 sophomore Donovan Clingan into their starting five was an easy first step. The addition of Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer provided head coach Dan Hurley with a veteran perimeter presence, already generating 1.39 PPP in spot-up situations (per Synergy).
Tack on returnees Tristan Newton and Alex Karaban, along with heralded freshmen Stephon Castle and Soloman Ball, and UConn had no problem dismantling Indiana and Texas at the Empire Classic. Nevertheless, the Longhorns were shorthanded up front, missing Dylan Disu (foot) and Kadin Shedrick (shoulder).
Meanwhile, Kansas’ roster reconstruction hasn’t been smooth sailing despite its 6-1 outright record. The Jayhawks accumulated just 0.84 PPP against Marquette before sneaking past Tennessee at the Maui Invitational. Michigan transfer Hunter Dickinson sparked the second-half surge versus the Vols, but floor spacing remained an issue in both matchups. Nicolas Timberlake, the 3-point specialist from Towson, was expected to fill that void, but he’s yet to find a rhythm at the high-major level.
What Is Home-Court Worth?
Per my college basketball power rankings, Kansas and UConn would be separated by less than a point on a neutral court. Yet, home-court advantage is sometimes valued between 3.5 and 4.5 points to the spread in college basketball betting models. Not only will the programs square off at Kansas’ hostile gym, but UConn will also face its most difficult test yet.
Conversely, Haslametrics has a projected final score of 73.9-72.8, marginally favoring the Jayhawks. Erik Haslam, the owner of the college basketball analytics site, will join me on the Outside Shots podcast throughout the season. Matt Metcalf, the former sportsbook director at Circa Sports, was on the latest episode to discuss situational spots and the national title futures market.
- Related: Why Auburn Is Eli’s Longshot College Basketball Futures Bet
Guided by Dickinson, Kansas showcases the 23rd-highest near-proximity field goal percentage (layups, dunks, tip-ins) across Division I, per Haslametrics. While UConn’s defense centers around running opponents off the arc, Clingan’s low-post presence is an arduous task — even for a hyper-efficient big man in Dickinson.
At the other end, Dickinson will likely need help against Clingan, which could allow the Huskies to find their footing from deep. They rank No. 237 in perimeter efficiency (30.9%), yet roughly 98% of their catch-and-shoot looks have been unguarded. Spencer hasn’t dealt with this negative shooting luck, but Newton and Karaban will eventually see their open jumpers begin to fall.
However, the lack of a secondary ball-handler in Castle (knee) could be too much for UConn to overcome in its first road tilt. The wing-sized prospect has only played in two games, yet his 27.0% assist rate sticks out.
kansas vs. uconn Player Props
kansas Props & Futures
UConn Props & Futures
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