Kansas State March Madness Odds: Wildcats First Round NCAA Tournament

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on March 14, 2023
kansas state march madness odds

Another strong Big 12 contender in March Madness lands in the East Region. 3-seed Kansas State opens against 14-seed Montana State. The Big Sky champions get the Wildcats limping into the tournament after two straight losses. Despite NCAA Tournament odds, this could be one of the more exciting 3 vs. 14 matchups. Kansas St. is a spread favorite and on the moneyline to win the game. The game has an over/under of . We’ll dive more into Kansas State March Madness odds and the matchup below.

Tip off is at 9:40 p.m. on Friday, with coverage on CBS.

Kansas State vs. Montana State Odds

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Kansas State vs. Montana State Player Props

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Kansas State March Madness Futures

Reasons Kansas State Can Cover

Kansas State is 19th in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, and their ability to get stops has propelled them through the Big 12. Their win profile is fairly impressive – victories over Baylor, TCU, Texas, and Kansas all point to a very talented team. Yes, their losses have been fairly unimpressive, but they have top wins against quality competition.

With the importance of defense in the tournament, a top-20 defense should limit the sorts of offensive explosions that can come back to haunt teams, and stop Montana State from getting open shots. Without that, the paths for Montana State to stay close are limited, with Montana State’s 170th ranked offense unlikely to get hot.

Unless Kansas State’s 52nd ranked offense goes cold, they should be able to score enough to cover this number.

Reasons Montana State Can Cover

Kansas State being a 3-seed is a bit of a farce. Yes, the totality of the resume matters, but all their best wins were at home, and they lost in the first round of the Big 12 tournament to TCU, who went 9-9 in conference play. Given that they’re 24th overall in KenPom and in the top-12 overall seeds in the bracket, they’re overvalued.

Given that, putting up a stinker of a performance is very possible – Kansas State has lost five of their last 10 games, with two of those losses to non-tournament teams. Montana State isn’t anything particularly special, but they have averaged 79.8 points in their last five games, which might suggest some more offensive potential. In the Big Sky tournament they shot 38.6% from 3, which suggests they have the upside to get hot from the outside, including a 6-of-10 performance in the title game.

Montana State’s key has to be slowing the game down – they’re 221st in tempo, and limiting the number of possessions will be essential to giving themselves a chance.

Final Thoughts

Kansas State is an inconsistent team that’s probably going to be bailed out by getting too friendly of a seed, but winning is not always covering the spread.

“That’s one of my favorite underdogs to get right now. Kansas State is going to be in a really interesting situation. First-year coach, probably just looking to get out of that game,” ShotQuality Betting Product & Content Lead Justin Perri told the Outside Shots podcast. “I like it to stay a little bit tighter … plus, Montanta State has the size and the shooters.”

Best available price: Montana State

Best of luck betting Kansas State March Madness odds.

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