Markquis Nowell and the 3-seed Kansas State Wildcats meet the 9-seed FAU Owls in the Elite 8 on Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET. The East Region Final is at Madison Square Garden. K-State is a slight favorite, while FAU is on the moneyline to win. The game has an over/under set at points. Below, we’ll look at FAU vs. Kansas State odds for the NCAA Tournament with a trip to college basketball’s Final Four on the line.
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Elite 8: Kansas State vs. FAU Betting Odds
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Kansas State vs. FAU player props
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Kansas State March Madness Futures
FAU March Madness Futures
Why Kansas State can cover the spread
When you roster a player as dynamic as Nowell, your team always stands a good chance. Kansas State’s route to the Elite 8 wasn’t a cakewalk – they took down blueblood programs Kentucky and Michigan State to reach this point. Nowell broke the all-time NCAA Tournament record for assists in a game with 19 in the Wildcats’ overtime win against the Spartans in the Sweet 16. He added 20 points and five steals in one of the all-time tournament performances.
While Nowell dominates the headlines in his home city, Ismael Massoud and Keyonte Johnson had terrific performances, as well. Massoud hit five three pointers, a couple of which cemented the K-State victory. Johnson provides a particular matchup nightmare for FAU. He stands 6-foot-5 with dynamic athleticism, which is tough to defend with the small-ball lineup FAU prefers.
Both teams shoot the ball well from three, but the roll that Nowell & Co. are currently on is a tough roll to stop. In March, it’s all about momentum and big players making big plays.
Derek Wagner’s Matchup Advantage For Kansas State
Another advantage for K-State is its ability to get out in transition and push the tempo. ShotQuality notes that the Owls’ transition defense ranks 288th in the nation. Their weakness in this department was displayed in their matchup against UAB when they allowed an eye-popping 19 transition points to the Blazers.
Conversely, the Wildcats are at their best when Nowell pushes the pace and gets out in transition, as they rank in the top 50 in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom. Scoring transition baskets was critical in their February meeting against Iowa State where they scored 13 fast break points against a tough Cyclones defense. If K-State can push the tempo and not let the Owls’ defense get set up, they could pull away early.
Why FAU can cover the spread
Though pushed to the brink of elimination twice by Memphis and Farleigh Dickenson, FAU’s three point shooting came in clutch late to seal victories. Such was the case again in the Sweet 16 against Tennessee, but the Vols couldn’t buy a bucket over the last five minutes. Johnell Davis helped orchestrate a 20-4 Owls run deep in the game to seal the 62-55 victory over Tennessee.
Kansas State did struggle to defend Michigan State’s guards in the last game. They allowed the Spartans to shoot 52% from beyond the arc and sent them to the line for 22 free throw attempts. Nowell – good as he’s been as was in that game – took a few egregious hero-ball threes and nearly burnt the game away for Kansas State.
FAU capitalizes on mistakes. If they get hot, they’re a tough team to slow down. Regardless of luck or fortune, the Owls are here and are fully capable of pulling another upset.
Derek Wagner’s Matchup Advantage For Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic has a significant advantage on the offensive glass, ranking 95th in offensive rebounding per KenPom. They’re led in this department by 7-foot-1 Vladislav Goldin, who boasts a top-50 offensive rebound rate in the country. His length will be an issue for a Wildcats team whose tallest player clocks in at 6-foot-10.
Tang’s squad struggled to keep Michigan State in check on the glass. They allowed a whopping 13 offensive boards to the Spartans, resulting in 15 second-chance points. If they struggle on the boards again, second-chance points will be plentiful for the Owls.
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Final Thoughts
FAU is extremely fortunate to be in the Elite 8. Granted, no teams make tournament runs without their fair share of luck, but FAU really should have lost to Memphis if not for some suspect officiating. They earned a solid win but did not cover against Farleigh Dickenson, who ran out of gas late. But Tennessee had a ton of open looks and just couldn’t hit them when it counted. FAU benefited from just 28 second-half points from the Vols and egregious shooting splits.
Kansas State isn’t a flawed team battling injuries like Tennessee was. Nowell is still playing on his home turf and as we saw against Michigan State, that makes him extremely dangerous. The Wildcats also have serious size advantage on the wing with Johnson and he has the athleticism to defend FAU’s patrol of guards.
Ultimately, Kansas State is the better team playing the better basketball. They earned each of their wins thus far against stiff competition. The Cinderella road for FAU may end here.
Best odds: Kansas State
