Champions Classic Odds, Picks, Predictions Tuesday: Kansas vs. Michigan State

Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated November 12, 2024

Kansas men’s basketball plays Michigan State in the first leg of the Champions Classic on Tuesday, Nov. 12. The Jayhawks are in the top 10 of my college basketball power rankings, with the Spartans narrowly entering the fold. “Rock Chalk” is a Kansas Jayhawks -5.5 (-114) on BetRivers spread favorite, and the total is 144.5 (-110) on BetRivers. Let’s dissect the opening odds for Kansas vs. MSU.

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kansas vs. msu odds: spread, moneyline, total

How Will Jayhawks Respond?

Kansas took down North Carolina at the buzzer on Friday, blowing a 20-point lead and failing to cover the point spread. Bill Self’s unit delivered a 28.1% clip from behind the arc, including a combined 3-of-12 shooting from transfers Zeke Mayo and David Coit. They may undergo positive regression versus Michigan State, yet there’s no telling the impact of a neutral court.

Conversely, the Jayhawks have struggled to defend ball-screen action, a common occurrence for any Hunter Dickinson-led team. While Dickinson held his own against Eliot Cadeau to contest the final shot versus the Tar Heels, it’s a lingering issue.

Kansas has surrendered 1.22 points per possession on pick-and-roll sets (via Synergy), ranking in the third percentile.

Related: Duke vs. Kentucky Betting Guide

Appraising The Spartans

Michigan State has covered the spread in its first two tests, squaring off with lowly Monmouth and Niagara. This game is a step up in weight class, but there are many encouraging signs following the departure of AJ Hoggard and Mady Sissoko.

For one, 6-foot-2 redshirt freshman Jeremy Fears has found his footing as the Spartans’ point guard after recovering from a gunshot wound last winter. In two contests, he’s generating a 48.9% assist rate. The Omaha transfer, Frankie Fidler (10 ppg), also provides tremendous versatility as a floor-spacing wing.

Fidler and Co. could receive some shooting luck at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. They have produced a subpar 26.3% clip on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers, and those misses could turn into makes against a vulnerable transition defense.

For reference, the Jayhawks allowed the Tar Heels to tally 17 fast-break points. However, as I mentioned, the venue presents an unknown variable.

College Basketball Projections

This tilt features a renewed rivalry of sorts, with Dickinson taking on against his former in-state foe. The ex-Michigan center averaged 19.3 points per game against the Spartans, winning half their matchups since the 2020-2021 campaign.

Suppose Fidler, Xavier Booker, and the rest of the Spartans find a rhythm from downtown, particularly by exploiting Dickinson defensively. In that case, Michigan State has a stronger chance to earn an upset win than the odds imply.

My raw numbers give Michigan State a small edge (+5.2) compared to the opening line of +5.5. Good luck with your wagers on Kansas vs. MSU odds!