All-American forward Hunter Dickinson, the top-rated player in the transfer portal after departing Michigan, stated in Thursday’s social media post that he’s headed to the Sunflower state for the 2023-24 college basketball campaign. Let’s break down how Dickinson’s announcement impacted Kansas basketball odds.
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Kansas Basketball Odds Analysis
When 2024 March Madness odds were released on April 3, the Jayhawks sat at +2200 across legal sportsbooks. That’s where their odds were priced on Thursday morning — until Dickinson shared that he’s joining the prestigious program.
Most shops have them appraised at +1200. DraftKings Sportsbook represents “high point” in the market at +1300. That’s tied for the second-shortest odds behind Duke (+1200). Meanwhile, their Final Four odds are +450.
Maryland — presumably the runner-up for Dickinson’s services — was positioned as low as +2500 before the news broke. The Terps have risen up to +5000 at a majority of sportsbooks. They’re my lone college basketball futures bet for now.
Unsurprisingly, Bart Torvik currently showcases Kansas as the No. 1 team in his 2024 college basketball projections. Tennessee, Duke, Marquette, Michigan State, UConn, Houston, Saint Mary’s, Creighton, and North Carolina round out his top-10 ratings. Gonzaga, which also reeled in a pair of notable transfers in April, is Torvik’s 16th-ranked unit.
Dickinson’s ShotQuality PPP in the short midrange placed in the 99th percentile last season. Moreover, his right block post-up efficiency settled in the 90th percentile. While the 7-foot-1, 260-pound junior received a bit of criticism for how he handled his next step, he undoubtedly gives Kansas a national title ceiling — and then some.
How Dickinson Fits In
Here’s how often Kansas coach Bill Self features his bigs via post-up touches over the last decade (via Synergy).
| Season | Percentage Of Post-Up Touches | Primary Post Threat |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 3.8% | K.J. Adams |
| 2021-22 | 9.5% | David McCormack |
| 2020-21 | 12.1% | David McCormack |
| 2019-20 | 12.4% | Udoka Azubuike |
| 2018-19 | 12.4% | Udoka Azubuike |
| 2017-18 | 8.0% | Udoka Azubuike |
| 2016-17 | 9.0% | Landen Lucas |
| 2015-16 | 9.1% | Perry Ellis |
| 2014-15 | 8.6% | Perry Ellis |
| 2013-14 | 12.5% | Joel Embiid |
Mind you, McCormack, Azubuike, the ageless Ellis, and Embiid all shined when Self handed them a primary role. The drop-off with Adams occurred because he resembled an undersized center. Long story short, Dickinson should possess a hefty workload.
Additionally, Self operates a ball-screen heavy offense — led by an elite pass-first point guard in DaJuan Harris. The 6-foot-1, 175-pound Harris manufactured a top-55 assist rate in 2022-23, and he’s even one of the premier defensive ballhawks in the country. He and Dickinson should form one of the more prominent pick-and-roll duos across college basketball.
Don’t forget, the Jayhawks added Nicholas Timberlake (Towson) and Arterio Morris (Texas) this offseason as well. With Grady Dick off to the NBA, Timberlake gifts Self with a reliable perimeter threat. He shot 41.6% from behind the arc as a senior.
Dickinson has two years of collegiate eligibility left on the table, but he’s reportedly expected to suit up for just one more season.
Kansas may still be in the mix for more elite-level talent, as five-star recruit Mackenzie Mgbako has the Jayhawks listed among his potential suitors. He decommitted from Duke on April 11 when Kyle Filipowski announced he would return for a sophomore campaign.
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