2024 Democratic VP Odds: Who Will Run With Kamala Harris?

With Kamala Harris becoming the presumptive Democratic nominee within 48 hours of Joe Biden ending his campaign, the conversation has moved to who Harris will pick as her running mate. The Democratic VP odds are now quite divided. Instead of questions about who would replace Biden, there are now questions about who will replace Harris on the bottom of the ticket.

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2024 Democratic VP Odds

Candidate	Price	Sportsbook Odds
Mark Kelly	$0.44	+127
Josh Shapiro	$0.30	+233
Roy Cooper	$0.15	+566
Andy Beshear	$0.11	+809
Tim Walz	$0.05	+1900
Pete Buttigieg	$0.03	+3233
Gretchen Whitmer	$0.03	+3233

Kamala Harris VP: VeepStakes History

Traditionally, VP picks fall into two buckets regarding why they were chosen. Generally speaking, VPs are either chosen with the goal of securing their swingy home state for the ticket, or because they can appeal to a different demographic than the Presidential nominee.

Lyndon Johnson was Kennedy’s VP because he could win Texas. John McCain believed a female VP could win over disaffected Hillary supporters who didn’t love Barack Obama, so he picked Sarah Palin. Now, VP selections don’t always work as intended. Palin was famously taken down by a softball Katie Couric interview, after all.

Kamala Harris herself was the latter in 2020, chosen because the old white man Joe Biden wanted to shore up his appeal to women and Black voters, two core Democratic constituencies. Given that Harris is now the nominee, almost all of the plausible names are moderate white men, designed to reassure that Harris isn’t too radical.

There was at first a big five in the Veepstakes, but now there’s been separation, with two names looming above the rest.

Kamala Harris VP Favorites

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly has been consistently tipped by the press despite not often being tipped prior to Sunday. That could be a sign that Harris’ camp is more interested in him than the pundit class had presumed.

Kelly is one of the Senate’s more moderate members. He’s also won two tough Senate races in a key swing state. In 2020 and 2022, he was the best-performing Democrat in Arizona. ABC News has reported that he’s one of two people in top consideration for the job, along with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.

Shapiro has also been the best performing statewide Democrat in both 2020 and 2022 in races for Attorney General and then Governor. Shapiro earned the highest raw vote total of anybody in Pennsylvania history in 2020. His landslide win over Doug Mastriano serves as an important reason to select him, in the core swing state with the most Electoral College votes on offer.

A recent PPP poll of the state had Shapiro’s favorables at a remarkable 52-36. There is no clear path to the White House without Pennsylvania.

Both Kelly and Shapiro have clean, easy cases to make for their political utility. Both would move their home states from at-best tossups to Democratic-leaning races.

There are, however, policy questions both have to answer.

Trouble In Paradise?

Kelly is one of only three Senate Democrats not to have co-sponsored the PRO Act, a piece of pro-union legislation that stalled in the Senate in 2022. Given how much the Harris campaign has touted their union endorsements and the Biden-Harris admin’s pro-union record, this could be slightly troubling.

Shapiro, on the other hand, has two liabilities. Shapiro’s staunch support of Israel could have the impact of reopening tensions in the party over Gaza. That said, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Harris will shake up the foreign policy and national security apparatuses if she wins. Kamala’s more pro-Palestinian stance could paper over Shapiro’s position.

The bigger problem for Shapiro is his position on charter schools and school vouchers. Partially due to his Jewish faith, Shapiro is more willing than most Democrats to consider vouchers, which is something of a third rail in Democratic politics. Teachers’ unions hate it, and Democratic voters oppose them, though not as uniformly as some on the left wish.

Shapiro’s support for vouchers could, in some ways, benefit the ticket, as it shows that Shapiro is a moderate not beholden to traditional orthodoxy. That said, splitting the Democratic coalition on a core issue after the outburst of unity post-Biden would be a risk.

Longshots

Governor Roy Cooper would bring his home state of North Carolina into play, but the state’s redder hue means he’d only bring North Carolina from Republican-leading to tossup. Throw in the fact that if he leaves the state, the GOP Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson becomes the Acting Governor, and his candidacy doesn’t make much sense.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has been doing a media circuit since Sunday, but initial vetting requests didn’t include him. It’s possible that the media blitz, far from projecting strength as a VP choice, was an attempt to elevate himself into a category that he isn’t quite in. The fact that Kentucky isn’t a swing state hurts his candidacy as well.

2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate Pete Buttigieg would be my pick if I was Harris, but he’s not my bet. The former mayor of South Bend and current Secretary of Transportation is the best communicator in Democratic politics. His viral Friday night evisceration of JD Vance on Bill Maher’s show is a reminder of his talents. That said, he wasn’t asked for vetting files and he’s arguably more useful to the campaign as their lead Fox News surrogate. He’s shown a remarkable ability to perform well on a hostile platform, and his role as a super-surrogate will still help the ticket.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has said she won’t leave Michigan, presumably because she knows Kamala won’t pick two women. Tim Walz served his country, but Minnesota’s not a swing state and he’s boring as wood to listen to.

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Kamala Harris VP Prediction

This really seems like a two-horse race, and Shapiro’s my bet. Pennsylvania is more important to the Electoral College math than Arizona. With Pennsylvania, Democrats just need to win Michigan (or, less likely, Georgia) and one of Arizona and Wisconsin. Without Pennsylvania, even an Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan sweep leaves you at 268 electoral college votes. Without Pennsylvania, Democrats need Georgia, which is a heavier lift.

Locking in Pennsylvania with Shapiro is worth the theoretical costs to party unity. Democrats can blame any pro-voucher movement from Shapiro on having to work with a divided legislature. There are solutions to his problems, especially since he’d be Vice President and not actually running education or Middle East policy. Shapiro’s the obvious choice.

Kamala’s political operation has shown it can make the obviously correct choices recently. Don’t overthink this.

Best of luck with your Kamala Harris VP predictions!