How Julio Jones Trade Odds Went On Roller Coaster Ride Amid Falcons Rumors

Written By Brett Gibbons on May 24, 2021
Julio Jones trade

The NFL’s biggest story that’s been moving under the radar for months is finally coming to light – a possible Julio Jones trade.

The longtime Atlanta Falcons superstar was heard telling Shannon Sharpe on FS1’s Undisputed that he was “out of there, man.” Controversy surrounds the comment, since it wasn’t clear whether Julio knew he was on live TV or not.

Regardless, the silent betting market on who Julio will take his first snap for Week 1 is coming alive and moving in a big way.

The Betting Market As It Opened

While reports of the Falcons openly shopping a Julio Jones trade had been appearing occasionally throughout the offseason, the Falcons opened favored to retain him at -125 at DraftKings Sportsbook. That number moved extremely quickly.

Note: This prop is only available in Michigan, Colorado, and Illinois at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you are in those states, click here and go to NFL Offseason Specials to find the prop.

Local rumors had it that Julio was interested in playing with Cam Newton in New England (rumors that have been disputed due to local bias) after reports of his impending trade were released. Derrick Henry was doing his part to recruit Julio to the Titans on Twitter, as was DeAndre Hopkins, who even went as far as to imply he would restructure his contract to bring No. 11 to Arizona.

Fast forward a week and we’re back at the Undisputed jumping-off point.

The comments made to Sharpe on his talk show (candid or not) mentioned that Julio was “out of [Atlanta]” and that he “[wants] to win.” He also made it known to Sharpe that the Cowboys were not in the running (there were no reports nor odds attached to Dallas).

Within Minutes, The Julio Jones Trade Market Changed

It didn’t take long for the market to shift– within minutes of opening, odds were on the march. The Falcons plummeted from -125 to +500 almost instantly, the Patriots moved up from +500 to +400 (odds-on favorites), and the Raiders vaulted into the picture to +500 after being on the board (OTB) previously.

It is unclear whether money coming into DK shifted some of these odds at the top of the board, but the operator definitely made at least some changes independent of booking bets, as additional teams were added after open that were not initially offered.

TeamOpening OddsOdds as of 5/24 2:20 PM EST
New England Patriots+500+400
Las Vegas RaidersOTB+500
Atlanta Falcons-125+500
Los Angeles Chargers+600+600
Indianapolis Colts+600+700
Baltimore Ravens+600+700
Jacksonville Jaguars+2500+800
San Francisco 49ers+800+800
Tennessee Titans+800+800
Cleveland BrownsOTB+1000

Though the Falcons front office ultimately decides where he is traded, it’s expected that Atlanta will respect his desire to play for a winner and follow a short list.

Various factors tie Julio to the 49ers (Kyle Shanahan) and those “winner” comments keep most of the rest of the crop in play.

However, don’t discount the impact of those recruiting Julio to their teams. The idea of playing in a corps with DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, and Larry Fitzgerald could be enticing to Julio. Watching the success of receivers in Tennessee and having a 2,000-yard rusher as a teammate could be another huge draw.

The odds-on leaders, the New England Patriots, have the allure of the local rumors as well as the win-now factor. Bill Belichick and the Patriots went on an offseason spending spree to vault them back into competition. Julio could be the next acquisition in an attempt to bolster their offense.

Where It Goes From Here

The next likely installment in this saga is likely the news that a Julio Jones trade has happened somewhere; from this point on, money and rampant speculation are the most likely things to move the market.

Perhaps uncertainty prevails and the board goes unchanged for no reason other than the fact that no one has a good lead on where he lands. The options are currently wide open.

A move involving Julio is unlikely to happen until June 1 or beyond, where a players’ contract and sign-on bonus roll into the next league year. This essentially means the Falcons absorb won’t Julio’s amortized contract for the coming season and instead defer his sign-on bonus until next year. The current goal for Atlanta is to free up space for this coming season.

Where he goes, at this point, is anyone’s guess.

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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