Longshot Jordan Spieth Taking Bets As PGA Returns With Strong Field At Colonial

Posted By FairwayJay on June 10, 2020
Jordan Spieth Charles Schwab odds

The PGA is back on course and 16 of the top 20 players in the World Golf Rankings take a swing at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. That does not include Jordan Spieth (56), who along with former major champions Jason Day (51) and Phil Mickelson (61), has fallen out of the top 50.

Spieth is a popular bet near 50-1 this week, though, as live golf returns following a three month layoff due to COVID-19. Clearly there is no current form for players, which makes playing favorites to win at lower odds less desirable. Especially the tournament favorite in Rory McIlroy, who has never played the course and is +950 to win at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Major champion Justin Thomas (+1650) also plays Colonial for the first time while another major champ, Day (+6000), returns to Colonial for the first time since he finished 31st in 2011. Four-time major winner Brooks Koepka (+2500) has played Colonial just once and finished second in 2018.

Putting is a premium at Colonial, and distance is not of much of significance. Spieth, Thomas, Day and other past or proven putters have a better chance this week if they can find their stroke off a long layoff.

Ball striking and course consistency are more predictive stats to consider this week with no players having current form to evaluate. Jon Rahm (+1150), Webb Simpson (+2200) and Xander Schauffele (+3300) are the players that ranked top-12 on Tour in Ball Striking before the PGA went on hiatus, and Rahm and Simpson were also top 15 in Strokes Gained: Putting. Tour veteran Kevin Na is also top 10, and he’s being disrespected a bit at odds of +5500 to win this week despite returning as defending champion. Na also has three top 10 finishes in his last four visits to Colonial.

Major champion Louis Oosthuizen (+8000) is No. 1 on Tour in SG: Putting as play resumes on the PGA Tour.

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Charles Schwab odds

Here are the latest odds to win the Charles Schwab Challenge outright.

Odds To Win

Game
06/11/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Rory McIlroy
Bet now
+800
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+900
Jon Rahm
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+1100
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+1200
Justin Thomas
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+1600
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+1600
Brooks Koepka
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+2000
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+2200
Webb Simpson
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+2000
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+2000
Bryson Dechambeau
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+2200
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+2000
Dustin Johnson
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+2800
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+2500
Patrick Reed
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+2800
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+2200
Xander Schauffele
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+2800
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+2900
Sungjae Im
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+2800
Bet now
+3100
Rickie Fowler
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+3300
Bet now
+2900
Collin Morikawa
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+3300
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+3400
Jordan Spieth
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+3300
Bet now
+3100
Tony Finau
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+4000
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+3400
Marc Leishman
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+4000
Bet now
+4200
Justin Rose
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+4000
Bet now
+3400
Scottie Scheffler
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+4000
Bet now
+4200
Jason Day
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+5000
Bet now
+4200
Matthew Fitzpatrick
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+5000
Bet now
+4800
Matt Kuchar
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+5000
Bet now
+4200

View odds for every golfer at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Bookmakers chip In

Nick Bogdanovich, Director of Trading for William Hill in Nevada, told TheLines that the betting handle and volume was at a good pace heading into Wednesday before Thursday’s opening round.

“My expectation is very high for this tournament,” Bogdanovich said.

Jay Kornegay, Vice President of Race and Sports at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, provided his thoughts on golf betting and expectations moving forward as well. Kornegay told TheLines: “I believe golf is going to get more attention while the big league sports remain suspended. The tournament at Colonial has a lot of big names and I’ll be disappointed if we don’t see action pick up.”

The SuperBook is a longtime leader of offering the largest golf betting menu in Las Vegas.

Players Taking Action

It’s been five years since Spieth won both The Masters and US Open. In 2015, he was a special young talent with a top-tier all around game and a deadly putter. Spieth starting tinkering and changing things with his swing, however, and the struggles in recent years have led to a decline in results and worse stats. Driving the ball has been an issue, and his putting became less proficient after ranking among the leaders.

But Spieth likes Colonial with four top-10s in his last five events on the course – including a win in 2016, shooting 17-under par. Spieth also had runner-up finishes in 2015 and 2017. Last year he finished eighth.

Spieth’s motivation is always high playing at home as a Texas native. Also his putting, understanding of the greens and ability to play in any windy conditions or humid weather makes him more desirable. So do his odds, which have attracted more interest from bettors this week.

William Hill has the most bets on Spieth (+5000), followed by Tony Finau (+4000) and Justin Rose (+5000).

The most money bet to win is on McIlroy (+900) and Rahm (+1000), the two favorites.

Rose won his ninth PGA Tour title when he captured the event at Colonial in 2018, shooting 20-under par. He signed a lucrative deal to switch sticks and play Homna clubs later that year. Rose went into the 2019 Masters ranked No. 1 in the world, but he’s mostly struggled since, dropping out of the top-10 world golf rankings to No. 14 in the past year.

Rose switched back to his old Taylor Made clubs for the Arnold Palmer event at Bay Hill in March, and the following week the PGA Tour suspended play at the PLAYERS Championship due to the breakout of COVID-19. Rose needs to breakout bad, and bettors can be rewarded at longer odds on him this week.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, early week action had Spieth (+4000) and Koepka (+2500) each with 7% of the total handle in outright win bets. McIlroy (+950) has now caught up taking more bets, while Dustin Johnson (+3000), Rickie Fowler (+3500) and Rose (+4500) have each generated 5% of the handle. McIlroy and Koepka have drawn the highest percentage of bets at 7% and 6% respectively, while FanDuel Sportsbook reports Wednesday that McIlroy, Koepka followed by Rahm, Thomas and Spieth have generated the most bets and handle.

At FanDuel, the highest handle on a golfer to miss the cut is Thomas at +350.

What about Mickelson following his charitable tuneup in The Match: Champions for Charity event? Mickelson has taken some action to win at odds of 150-1 at the SuperBook, but not much at FanDuel where he’s 95-1. Phil has only played Colonial once since 2011 with a 29th place finish in 2017.

Betting Players for Top Finishes

Picking a PGA Tour event winner is a tough task. So FanDuel Sportsbook offers alternatives to bet a winner each tournament. Finishing position for Top 5, Top 10 or Top 20 are options, and stronger putters like Fowler (+750), Spieth (+900) and Day (+1100) offer a good payoff for a Top 5 finish.

Here are the odds for Top 5 finish at Colonial from FanDuel Sportsbook. Top 24 players in the odds market.

PlayerOddsPlayerOddsPlayerOdds
R. McIlroy+185J. Rahm+300J. Thomas+380
W. Simpson+500B. DeChambeau+550B. Koepka+650
D. Johnson+650P. Reed+650S. Im+650
X. Schauffele+650C. Morikawa+750K. Na+750
M. Leishman+750R. Fowler+750T. Finau+750
S. Scheffler+850J. Spieth+900J. Rose+900
M. Kuchar+1000M. Fitzpatrick+1000G. Woodland+1100
J. Day+1100M. Lowry+1100A. Ancer+1300

Match-ups Generating Interest

Fowler (+105) over Patrick Reed has drawn good action along with Rose (-110) over Spieth at William Hill.

McIlroy (-125) over Rahm is receiving more attention at the SuperBook, while online sports wagering at FanDuel Sportsbook reports Wednesday that the bet count on McIlroy (-146) over Rahm shows 86% of the bets on Rory. Rahm has two top 5 finishes at Colonial in 2017 and 2018.

FanDuel bettors are also supporting Xander Schauffele (-116) over Dustin Johnson with 71% of the bets on Schauffele. Johnson has not played Colonial since a 14th place finish in 2014.

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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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