BMW Championship Odds: Bettors Riding Jon Rahm And Rory McIlroy

Posted By FairwayJay on August 26, 2020 - Last Updated on August 27, 2020
Jon Rahm Rory McIlroy BMW Championship odds

Dustin Johnson moved up four spots to take over the No. 1 position in the Official World Golf Rankings thanks to a record-breaking 30-under par total and 11-stroke victory at the Northern Trust. But Johnson is not the one getting the brunt of the betting handle this week ahead of the BMW Championship.

Jon Rahm (+1000) is the most popular player this week with 14% of the total handle at DraftKings Sportsbook in the outright win market. Rahm opened +900 at both FanDuel and DraftKings and has seen his odds nudge up at both books.

Rory McIlroy (+1700) and Johnson have both taken 11% of the handle and 5% of the bets, followed by Bryson DeChambeau (+1300) with 10% of the handle and also 5% of the number of bets. DeChambeau’s odds to win have risen from the opener of +1100 to +1300 at FanDuel, and down from +1400 to +1300 at DraftKings. Best odds on DeChambeau to win are now at BetMGM at +1400. Daniel Berger is seeing his lowest-ever odds to win a big tournament currently +1700 at DraftKings and +2000 at FanDuel with no movement.

Here’s a look at the top dozen players attracting the most interest at DraftKings for the BWM Championship. Odds and percentages can change leading up to start of event.

GolferCurrent Odds% Handle% Bets
Jon Rahm+100014%4%
Rory McIlroy+170011%5%
Dustin Johnson+80011%5%
Bryson DeChambeau+130010%5%
Justin Thomas+12007%6%
Daniel Berger+17007%6%
Collin Morikawa+17007%6%
Viktor Hovland+40006%5%
Matthew Wolff+45005%4%
Tony Finau+31004%4%
Tiger Woods+35004%4%
Adam Scott+45004%3%
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BMW Championship odds

Sixty-nine players will take their shot at Olympia Fields in Illinois this week, looking to stay or move into the top-30 for a chance to play in the Tour Championship at East Lake. The reward is a $15 million payday for first place and $5 million to the runner up with the top-8 finishers all earning at least $1.1 million in next week’s championship FedExCup event.

Johnson remains the favorite and is the only player with single-digit odds to win the BMW Championship. Recency bias is in play, as Johnson was 20/1 to win last week’s Northern Trust and his incredible performance has bettors believing in him again. That despite Johnson shooting 80-80 last month at The Memorial followed by a 78 the next week and his withdrawal at the 3M Open. Johnson’s odds are holding steady at DraftKings (+800) and FanDuel (+750).

Berger’s odds at DraftKings match McIlroy, which shows not only strong play and recency bias, but also how odds can move significantly. Just weeks ago at the PGA Championship, McIlroy’s odds were +1400 and Berger +3500. Berger was greater than 100/1 back in March when PGA Championship odds were initially offered.

Berger is up to No. 2 in this week’s BMW Championship power rankings at TheLines behind only Johnson. Morikawa, Thomas and Rahm round out the top-5. McIlroy checks in at No. 10 and Tiger Woods at No. 20.

Meanwhile, two of the most popular players to bet last week both missed the cut at the Northern Trust as Bryson DeChambeau and Jason Day each took 7% of the outright win handle at DraftKings to lead all players. Tony Finau and Morikawa, who saw his odds drop in half at recent events after winning the PGA Championship, also missed the cut to cost many bettors.

Outright Winner

Game
08/27/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Dustin Johnson
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+800
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+750
Jon Rahm
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+1000
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+1000
Justin Thomas
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+1200
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+1200
Bryson Dechambeau
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+1300
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+1300
Xander Schauffele
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+1500
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+1600
Daniel Berger
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+1700
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+2000
Rory McIlroy
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+1700
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+1800
Collin Morikawa
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+1700
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+2000
Patrick Cantlay
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+3000
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+3200
Scottie Scheffler
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+3000
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+3500
Jason Day
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+3100
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+3200
Tony Finau
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+3100
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+3200
Patrick Reed
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+3100
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+3200
Harris English
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+3500
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+3500
Tyrrell Hatton
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+3500
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+3900
Kevin Kisner
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+3500
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+3600
Tiger Woods
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+3500
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+3500
Viktor Hovland
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+4000
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+3300
Hideki Matsuyama
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+4000
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+3600
Adam Scott
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+4500
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+3600
Matthew Fitzpatrick
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+4500
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+6000
Paul Casey
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+5000
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+6000
Billy Horschel
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+5000
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+6500
Matthew Wolff
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+5500
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+3500
Cameron Champ
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+7000
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+8500

View odds for every player at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Top player Strokes Gained stats

A number of young golfers and rising stars have played the course in recent years as amateurs. But they haven’t played it in as tough of conditions or with 5” rough that is expected by the weekend of this FedExCup event.

The Par 70 course will play long at 7,366 yards, and a runaway winner is doubtful as is a 20-under total. The winning score over/under prop is 268.5 (Par=280).

Over the last 24 rounds of golf, the overall strokes gained leaders are: (Fantasy National stats and database)

  • Daniel Berger
  • Dustin Johnson
  • Harris English
  • Jon Rahm
  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Justin Thomas
  • Webb Simpson
  • Jason Day
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Russell Henley

Henley (+7500 DraftKings) is the biggest longshot from the group above but is actually No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and Approach and No. 2 in SG: Tee-to-Green over his last 24 rounds. His short game around the green and putting has kept him from even stronger finishes but Henley did finish top-10 in both the Wyndham and Northern Trust most recently.

The best putters over their last 24 rounds on bentrass / poa anuua greens like Olympia Fields are:

  • Kevin Na (+12500 BetMGM)
  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Maverick McNealy (+25000)
  • McKenzie Hughes (+12500)
  • Billy Horchel (+5500)
  • Daniel Berger

FedExCup odds

As you watch and wager on this week’s BMW Championship, in-play betting will be popular for many players. Especially those bettors banking on Tiger, who needs to finish within the Top 5 (+750) to advance to the Fedex Cup Final next week at East Lake for the Tour Championship.

Woods’ short game struggles have held him back since the restart.

Current odds-on favorites to win the FedExCup at DraftKings:

  • +300 Dustin Johnson
  • +350 Justin Thomas
  • +800 Webb Simpson
  • +1000 Bryson DeChambeau
  • +1000 Jon Rahm
  • +1200 Daniel Berger
  • +1400 Rory McIlroy
  • +2000 Xander Schauffele
  • +2500 Patrick Reed

Betting an exacta

DraftKings Sportsbook has some prop bets with longshot odds this week for sports bettors looking to cash in like horse players. You can wager on the Exacta finish, or the players that will finish top-2 in exact order. There are many choices and here are some with the top of the market players:

  • 1. Johnson / 2. Rahm (+9000)
  • 1. Rahm / 2. Johnson (+9000)
  • 1. Thomas / 2. Johnson (+1000)
  • 1. Rahm / 2. Thomas (+12500)
  • 1. DeChambeau / 2. Rahm (+15000)
  • 1. Schauffele / 2. Johnson (+15000)
  • 1. McIlroy / 2. Rahm (+17500)
  • 1. Berger / 2. Thomas (+20000)
  • 1. DeChambeau / 2. Schauffele (+25000)
  • 1. McIlroy / 2. Schauffele (+30000)
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FairwayJay

FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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