John Haslbauer’s 2023 Golf Betting Year In Review, Advice For New Bettors

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
golf betting

2023 has finally come to a close. It’s time to look back at the year that was, tally up the points, and see how our PGA TOUR golf betting fared for the year before kicking off with a fresh slate at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January 2024.

If “Heartbreak” was the central theme of my 2022 year of betting (who could forget the agonizing defeats of Mito at the PGA, Zalatoris at the U.S. Open, or Henley at the Sony Open?), then “Opportunism” may be the one word to sum up my 2023 golf betting year in review. Despite not having as many outright sweats as I would have hoped for, 2023 proved to be my most profitable year of outright betting since I began year-long tracking in 2020, with a total of eight outright winners in the calendar year.

While it’s nice to see the bankroll grow, it’s even more exciting to be a part of the continued growth at TheLines, which just recently surpassed the 40,000 subscriber milestone on YouTube and 4,000 Discord members. As each year turns, I continue to feel thankful for all the new friends I’ve made along the way, all the dialogue on Twitter, DMs, and Discord, the podcasts invitations, and the support of all my colleagues on TheLines’ staff.

It’s an ominous time for the trajectory of professional golf right now, but I’m grateful to have a platform to continue to air out my thoughts and opinions in this ever-changing landscape.

GOLF BETTING STRATEGY

Despite all the highs and lows of this year, the weekly unit structure for each card remained the same for Outrights (3U in to pay out 24U each), First Round Leader (0.5U in to pay out 10U each), and Props (3U in to pay out 3U each).

After all the peaks and valleys that come with a year of golf betting, I managed to net out the end of the year with a 64 unit profit. Below, we’ll recap the year that was with some closing thoughts heading into 2024.

OUTRIGHTS (8X, +56U)

  • Sony Open: Si Woo Kim (+4500)
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Max Homa (+2600)
  • Corales Puntacana Championship: Matt Wallace (+3500)
  • Mizuho Classic: Rose Zhang (+4500)
  • RBC Canadian Open: Nick Taylor (+7500)
  • Barbasol Championship: Vincent Norrman (+2400)
  • Barracuda Championship: Akshay Bhatia (+5000)
  • Worldwide Technologies Championship: Erik van Rooyen (+8000)

First Round Leader (3X, Broke even)

  • Farmers Insurance Open: Aaron Rai (+11000, Chopped)
  • RBC Heritage: Aaron Rai (+11000)
  • RBC Canadian Open: Aaron Rai (+8000, Chopped)

PROPS (+8U)

  • 117 Prop bets placed over 39 events
  • 37 Props won (32% Hit Rate)
  • +7% ROI

CLOSING THOUGHTS

This year, I got off to a hot start with two outright winners in January, then saw a pretty even trend of one outright winner every 2.5 months or so. That was good enough for eight total outright winners, two clear of the six I always shoot for to turn a profit on the year.

From an outright perspective, it really did feel like the close calls fell my way more often than not. Adam Hadwin at the Rocket Mortgage was the only outright loss I suffered in a playoff, while I benefitted from the good side of variance with Nick Taylor, Rose Zhang, Vincent Norrman, and Akshay Bhatia all winning in a playoff. Though they did not make it to a playoff, Tommy Fleetwood at the Valspar, Mark Hubbard at the Sanderson Farms, and JT Poston at the Shriners Open each offered close sweats on Sunday. That’s golf betting though, you can’t win them all, and I can’t complain about evading heartbreak for the majority of the year.

A Commitment to Opposite-Field Events

Eight outrights in a year sounds great, but it was largely carried by four tournaments that ran opposite of primary PGA TOUR events. Opposite field events tend to go overlooked by golf bettors, but if 2023 has taught me one thing, it’s that they offer a greater opportunity to exploit value in top-heavy fields where win equity is so concentrated to a select few. All four of my opposite field outrights came from players in the +2500 to +5000 range.

Further, I’ve found that opposite field events are most likely to exploit stale lines when shopping across legal sportsbooks, as the lower overall volume of bets can lead to slower adjustments across the marketplace.

In 2024, I will continue to lean in to opposite field events, and will look to double down with more in-depth tournament research content in light of this successful 2023 season.

That’s a wrap for 2023! Thank you again for all the support along the way, and best of luck with all your bets in the new year. Next up, the 2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions Preview!

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