2023 John Deere Classic Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Deere Run
The John Deere Classic returns to the Quad Cities with another 2023 PGA TOUR contest slated for TPC Deere Run. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential payouts. Cameron Young, Denny McCarthy, and Russell Henley are the favorites for this year’s John Deere Classic.
Nothing runs like a Deere and, in the case of TPC Deere Run, there’s truly nothing else quite like it on the PGA TOUR. My namesake’s tournament has arrived on the PGA TOUR schedule. We head to Silvis, Illinois, for the 2023 John Deere Classic in a tournament bereft of star power that’s truly wide open for the taking. In this article, we’ll look ahead at the John Deere Classic odds, favorites, trends, and key stats for your tournament research.
Although the best players in the world usually skip this event in favor of a travel week over the pond, the John Deere Classic always seems to produce great drama and logjammed leaderboards with players of diverse skillsets. TPC Deere Run is not a challenging course by any means, but the presence of undulated fairways, steep elevation changes, and tight doglegs requires players to use every club in their bag, placing slightly more of a premium on ball striking and short game than a typical birdie-fest.
Expecting continued low scoring, I’m looking for a balance of Birdie or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, and Comp Course History on other similar short and easy courses. The layout should reward the most precise ball strikers, who are able to convert a volume of birdie looks.
Let’s run through the key facts and info about TPC Deere Run ahead of the 2023 John Deere Classic.
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JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS: THE FAVORITES
Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds. Find favorites with odds 20-1 or shorter below:
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
The John Deere Classic is always a natural bye week for the world’s best. Before the introduction of the Scottish Open on the TOUR schedule in 2022, this event always slotted the week prior to The Open Championship, with final qualifying spots and a charter flight across the pond up for grabs for top-three finishers. With a trip to the U.K. still looming for next week’s Genesis Scottish Open, all the best players in the world once again bypassed Silvis to prep for the final major of the year.
Last year, just two OWGR top-75 players (Webb Simpson and Christiaan Bezuidenhout) competed at the John Deere Classic, making it the weakest strength of field for a primary event in 2022. While this week’s field still lacks star power, it’s a significant improvement.
Cameron Young headlines as the lone OWGR top-20 player at this year’s event. He’s still searching for form and looking to firm up his place in the top 70 of the FedEx Cup Standings with no top-30 finishes since he defied Masters odds in April. There are a total of 18 OWGR top-75 players who tee it up this year, with Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, Eric Cole, Taylor Moore, Chris Kirk, and Emiliano Grillo expected to open with the shortest golf odds. It will also be interesting to track where Ludvig Aberg opens in his John Deere Classic debut after a polarizing, up-and-down showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.
JT Poston returns to defend his 2022 John Deere Classic title. He’s joined by Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Moore, Zach Johnson, Jonathan Byrd, and Michael Kim to round out the list of past champions in the field this week.
INTRODUCTION TO TPC DEERE RUN
TPC Deere Run is a fun course in the Quad Cities notched between Illinois and Iowa. This event has historically been kind to local Midwesterners. Players like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Kevin Streelman, Doug Ghim and Adam Schenk enjoyed putting on a show around local fans.
In its 51-year history on TOUR, the event has consistently produced dramatic and climactic finishes. Similar to the Travelers, we’ve come to expect playoffs and one-stroke victories. Winners have emerged from a playoff or one stroke 16 times since 2000, although that gap has widened in the past couple years.
Because top players routinely choose to skip this event, it’s also been a launching pad for young players. Jordan Spieth secured his first here, holing out from the greenside bunker on 18 to force a playoff at the age of 19. Bryson DeChambeau, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, and Brian Harman also notched their first career wins at this event. It’s a great time to cast aside “win equity” from an outright betting perspective, and a great opportunity for the mid-tier players on TOUR. Rookies like Eric Cole, Ludvig Aberg, and Sam Stevens who have started to peak will face a great opportunity to notch their first career win in the Quad Cities.
With fairways and greens above average in size, this represents yet another week where the players with the hottest irons and putting will rise to the top of the leaderboard. While course history is relatively not predictive here, results on other short course birdie-fests have served as a strong indicator of better results at the John Deere Classic. Last year, JT Poston won this event the week after finishing T2 at the Travelers Championship, despite having no finishes better that T64 in four prior John Deere Classic starts.
For TPC Deere Run course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past John Deere Classic winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our John Deere Classic odds page.Editor’s Note
COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS
With wide fairways, large greens, and weak fields, accurate ball strikers consistently find success at this event. Course history has been a mixed bag, but there are certain archetypes of players who are comfortable on these greens and can repeatedly dial up the same formula of fairways and greens in regulation needed to keep pace with the low scoring at this event.
Generally speaking, it’s taken players one or two years of prior experience to see the course before they’ve gone on to win. But there are always exceptions, as Dylan Frittelli won in his 2019 debut, and Emiliano Grillo and Christian Bezuidenhout each finished runner up in their first go-around at the John Deere Classic in 2022.
Looking at recent John Deere Classic results, only four players have multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes Lucas Glover, Scott Brown, Russell Henley, and Adam Schenk.
Just nine players avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Patton Kizzire, Patrick Rodgers, Zach Johnson, Seamus Power, Chesson Hadley, Adam Long, Martin Laird, Nick Hardy, and Kelly Kraft.
The top 10 players in Course History at TPC Deere Run are: Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Scott Brown, Russell Henley, Adam Schenk, Dylan Frittelli, Patton Kizzire, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Emiliano Grillo, and Seamus Power. That paints a very clear course profile picture of accurate approach specialists with spike putting upside and proven results on comp short positional courses who are best suited to attack TPC Deere Run.
Notables who have routinely struggled on these grounds include Brendon Todd, Ryan Armour, Ryan Palmer, and Nick Taylor.
Team USA Ryder Cup Captains
Steve Stricker remains the last player to three-peat a PGA TOUR event, doing so at the John Deere Classic in a dominant 2009-2011 stretch. While not in the 2023 field following the Senior U.S. Open, that goes to show that this course can really suit the eye of certain players who are accurate with their ball striking and have partial ties to this part of the country.
Stricker’s successor as Team USA captain for this year’s Ryder Cup, Zach Johnson also boasts an impressive record here. Like Stricker, Johnson’s also made it through the cut in every appearance over the last decade. That includes a win in 2012, a playoff loss to Jordan Spieth in 2014, and two additional runner-up finishes. In total, Johnson racked up eight T15 finishes over his last dozen appearances at this event. He is No. 1 in total strokes gained at TPC Deere Run over the last 50 rounds, but form has taken a step back in 2023.
As a par-71 at just over 7,200 yards, TPC Deere Run is short by PGA TOUR standards. Still, it features too many long par 3s and par 4s beyond 450 yards to be classified with all other short TOUR courses. With tight tree lines and a thick rough that forces layups, the formula players have used to find success on other short courses should translate well.
You won’t have to look far to find the top comp course this week, as the last two host venues on the PGA TOUR really do embody all of the relevant characteristics of TPC Deere Run. Both TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club feature tree lines, premium on accurate ball striking, and thick, penal rough surrounding the fairways and greens. At the Travelers Championship in particular, Jordan Spieth has had repeated crossover success, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, and JT Poston.
In addition to TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club, I’m also referencing TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch, Country Club of Jackson, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club as easy, but less positional golf courses where a driver-heavy approach can still position players with ample birdie opportunities.
But, for accurate ball strikers like Poston, Berger, and Zach Johnson, a fairway-heavy approach will work well here too. For that reason, courses like Pebble Beach GL and Sedgefield CC also serve as strong comp courses.
Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are: Russell Henley, Webb Simpson, JT Poston, Seamus Power, Taylor Moore, Emiliano Grillo, Mark Hubbard, Callum Tarren, KH Lee, and Chesson Hadley.
KEY STATS TO CONSIDER WITH JOHN DEERE CLASSIC ODDS
- SG: APP / SG: BS
- SG: ARG
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Good Drives Gained
- Par-4 Scoring
- Par 5: 550-600
- Prox: 75-150
- SG: TOT (Easy Courses)
- SG: Putting (Bent) / 3-Putt Avoidance
- Course & Comp Course History
The best starting point for in this mini birdie-fest swing of the season would seem to be isolating Birdies or Better Gained. The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are: Eric Cole, Nick Taylor, Akshay Bhatia, Emiliano Grillo, Scott Piercy, Brandon Wu, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, Dylan Wu, and Carson Young.
Approach performance hasn’t predicted success as much at the John Deere as most other courses given the larger greens and high Green In Regulation percentage. But, it still stands at a premium in an expected birdie-fest. The 10 best approach players entering this week are: Mark Hubbard, Emiliano Grillo, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sepp Straka Nate Lashley, Chez Reavie, Ryan Palmer, Russell Henley, Alex Smalley, and Scott Piercy.
At TPC Deere Run, there are very few long iron approach needed, instead concentrating to the 75-150 yard range. The top-10 in Proximity gained from this range are: Chris Kirk, Charley Hoffman, Hank Lebioda, Russell Henley, Seung-yul Noh, Nate Lashley, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Satoshi Kodaira, Aaron Baddeley, and Chesson Hadley.
When combining SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Ball Striking on Comp Courses to isolate the precise ball strikers, just six players rank top 40 in each: Emiliano Grillo, Russell Henley, Nick Taylor, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nate Lashley, and Brendon Todd.
Course Fit by Hole Ranges
Par-4 Scoring is a bit of an overrated stat at TPC Deere Run. But given the importance of making putts, and the presence of 11 par 4s, I think it’s a slightly better reference point for recent form than SG: T2G. Given the diverse spread of par-4 hole ranges on this course, it should serve as a helpful resource to identify the players who can best position themselves to generate birdies. The top-10 of par-4 scorers this week includes: Denny McCarthy, Nick Taylor, Russell Henley, Eric Cole, Chris Kirk, Patrick Rodgers, Byeong Hun An, Taylor Moore, Stephan Jaeger, and Chez Reavie.
Par-5 Scoring from 550-600 rates of particular importance this week. That should favor the players with plus distance who are able to reach in two and more easily capitalize on these birdie opportunities. The top 10 players in Par-5: 550-600 are: Ludvig Aberg, Mark Hubbard, Matt Kuchar, Harry Higgs, Patton Kizzire, Nick Taylor, Eric Cole, KH Lee, Dylan Wu, and Webb Simpson.
The ideal fit for this course should rank above average in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Short Game, Birdie or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions) and Comp Course History. Eight players in the 2023 field meet the same criteria: Emiliano Grillo, Nick Taylor, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nate Lashley, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Rodgers, Adam Svensson, and Keith Mitchell.
Looking at the correlation charts this week, many of the characteristics we’d come to expect from the average TOUR course continue to pop at TPC Deere Run. The most notable changes compared to TOUR average are the de-prioritization of Par-3 Scoring and SG: OTT. With distance advantage mitigated by forced layups and penal rough, and the scoring opportunities coming predominantly from the par 4s and par 5s, that would all seem to check out.
Instead, SG: ARG, Par-4: 400-450 and Good Drives Gained make the most notable jumps in importance. It’s natural to dismiss around-the-green skillsets on a course that routinely yields winning scores beyond 20-under par. However, players are not completely immune from missing these greens in regulation, and history has shown that avoiding bogeys by scrambling for pars is a necessary skillset at this event.
There are 12 players in the field who rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, Mark Hubbard, Nick Taylor, Patrick Rodgers, Stephan Jaeger, Doug Ghim, Dylan Wu, Kevin Streelman, Joseph Bramlett, Michael Kim, and…Adam Schenk.
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: ADAM SCHENK
At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Adam Schenk was my favorite play of the week. He was on my lengthy outright card, my placement card, a fixture in my DFS lineups, and even my One and Done selection despite opening beyond 100-1 odds. As of this writing Sunday morning, he looks poised finish inside the top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which will mark his third top-10 over his last five starts. With Detroit Golf Club serving as one of the top comp courses to TPC Deere Run, there’s no reason to jump off of Schenk now, as he’ll have some unfinished business seeking out his first career PGA TOUR win after so many close calls in 2023.
TPC Deere Run is a great fit for Schenk’s game, as he thrives in birdie-fests, leaning on the strength of his irons and putting. He’s gained strokes on approach in seven consecutive events leading into the John Deere Classic, and spiked for over four strokes putting three times over the same span.
Beyond the stat profile fit, a return to the Quad Cities is also a comfortable homecoming for Schenk. The Purdue graduate grew up in this neck of the woods, with his hometown just a five hour drive from Silvis. That familiarity has already paid dividends at the John Deere Classic, as Schenk has finishes of T6 and T4 over four career appearances.
I’m usually not one to buy high on a player of Schenk’s caliber, but Schenk’s combination of immediate form and course history in a lackluster field is too good to ignore. He’s a fixture on my outright card regardless of where his odds opened Monday.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR AT THE 2023 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC
The John Deere Classic may have the reputation of a volatile birdie-fest, but much of that is to do with the absence of depth in the field. There is a sneaky long list of mid-tier names littering the 2023 John Deere Classic field, so I find myself leaning towards a much more concentrated card of players in the 20-1 to 50-1 odds range compared to last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, which was a putting contest far more open for the taking from pure longshots. Tough to get too excited over the John Deere Classic with the fourth major soon approaching, but it’s still a week with plenty of betting value to exploit.
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early towards the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2023 John Deere Classic odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.
2023 John Deere Classic Model Breakdown
In my model, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Par-5: 550-600, and SG: Putting (L36, Bent, 3-Putt Avoidance), followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: ARG, SG: P and SG: TOT (L12 Rounds), and Good Drives Gained.
You know it’s not the most competitive event of the year when Eric Cole tops the model. Cole has been one of the most consistent players on TOUR in the second half of this season, piling up eight top-40 finishes over his last 10 starts. He’s a sensible fit for TPC Deere Run with his ability to spike with the irons and putter, and has a chance to open as one of the co-favorites on the betting board.
After Cole, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Emiliano Grillo, Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, Mark Hubbard, Nick Taylor, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Nate Lashley, Matt Kuchar, and Brendon Todd.
Russell Henley and Adam Schenk will be fixtures on my 2023 John Deere Classic odds betting card. In addition, I’ll also look to target Chris Kirk, Nate Lashley, and Patrick Rodgers depending on where the odds ultimately fall.
Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2023 John Deere Classic odds!
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