2024 John Deere Classic Preview: Everything To Know About TPC Deere Run

Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
John Deere Classic odds

The John Deere Classic returns to the Quad Cities for another 2024 PGA TOUR contest slated at TPC Deere Run. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential payouts. After Patrick Cantlay withdrew from the tournament Monday, Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth are the favorites for this year’s John Deere Classic.

Nothing runs like a Deere, and, in the case of TPC Deere Run, there’s truly nothing else quite like it on the PGA TOUR. My namesake’s tournament arrives on the PGA TOUR schedule. We head to Silvis, Illinois, for the 2024 John Deere Classic in a tournament bereft of star power that truly is wide open for the taking. In this article, we’ll look ahead at the John Deere Classic odds, favorites, trends, and key stats for your tournament research.

Although the best players in the world usually skip this event in favor of a travel week over the pond, the John Deere Classic always seems to produce great drama and log-jammed leaderboards with players of diverse skillsets. TPC Deere Run is not a challenging course by any means, but the presence of undulated fairways, steep elevation changes, and tight doglegs requires players to use every club in their bag, placing slightly more of a premium on ball striking and short game than a typical birdie-fest. 

Expecting continued low scoring, I’m looking for a balance of Birdie or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: Ball Striking, Good Drives Gained, and Comp Course History on other similar short and easy courses. This venue should reward the most precise ball strikers, who are able to convert a volume of birdie looks.

Let’s run through the key facts and info about TPC Deere Run ahead of the 2024 John Deere Classic.


Scroll to the bottom for complete outright odds. Here are the favorites with odds 20-1 or shorter.


The John Deere Classic is always a natural bye week for the world’s best. Before the introduction of the Scottish Open on the TOUR schedule in 2022, this event always slotted the week prior to The Open Championship, with final qualifying spots and a charter flight across the pond up for grabs for top-three finishers. With a trip to the U.K. still looming for next week’s Genesis Scottish Open, all the best players in the world once again bypassed Silvis to prep for the final major of the year.

In 2024, however, there is one exception from a star player still searching for more signs of form before the year’s final Major in the UK. Jordan Spieth headlines in the Quad Cities after Cantlay left the field. There are just seven players in total to represent the OWGR top 40 this week, rounded out by Jason Day, Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, Denny McCarthy, and Lucas Glover.

Sepp Straka launched himself into the OWGR top-40 after his win at the 2023 John Deere Classic, flirting with a 59 on Sunday for an “out of nowhere” victory. The Austrian by way of Georgia will be back to defend his title.

Straka is joined by JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Zach Johnson, and Michael Kim to round out the list of past champions in the field this week.


TPC Deere Run is a fun course in the Quad Cities between Illinois and Iowa. This event has historically been kind to local Midwesterners. Players like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, and Adam Schenk have enjoyed putting on a show around local fans.

In its 51-year history on TOUR, the event has consistently produced dramatic and climactic finishes. Similar to the Travelers, we’ve come to expect playoffs and one-stroke victories. Winners have emerged from a playoff or one stroke 16 times since 2000, although that gap has widened in the past couple of years.

Because top players routinely choose to skip this event, it’s also been a launching pad for young players. Jordan Spieth secured his first here, holing out from the greenside bunker on 18 to force a playoff at the age of 19. Bryson DeChambeau, Dylan Frittelli, Michael Kim, and Brian Harman also notched their first career wins at this event. It’s a great time to cast aside “win equity” from an outright betting perspective and a great opportunity for the mid-tier players on TOUR. Debutants like Mac Meissner, Pierson Coody, Chandler Phillips, and Ben Griffin, who are still in search of their first PGA TOUR wins, have a great opportunity ahead of themselves in the Quad Cities.

With fairways and greens above average in size, this represents yet another week where the players with the hottest irons and putting will rise to the top of the leaderboard. While course history is relatively not predictive here, results on other short-course birdie fests have served as a strong indicator of better results at the John Deere Classic. In 2022, JT Poston won this event the week after finishing T2 at the Travelers Championship, despite having no finishes better than T64 in four prior John Deere Classic starts.

For TPC Deere Run course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past John Deere Classic winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our John Deere Classic odds page.

Editor’s Note


With wide fairways, large greens, and weak fields, accurate ball strikers consistently find success at this event. Course history has been a mixed bag, but there are certain archetypes of players who are comfortable on these greens and can repeatedly dial up the same formula of fairways and greens in regulation needed to keep pace with the low scoring at this event.

Generally speaking, it’s taken players one or two years of prior experience to see the course before they’ve gone on to win. But there are always exceptions, as Dylan Frittelli won in his 2019 debut. Emiliano Grillo and Christian Bezuidenhout each finished runner-up in their first go-around at the John Deere Classic in 2022, and Ludvig Aberg impressed with a T4 finish in his first John Deere Classic appearance last year.

Looking at recent John Deere Classic results, only six players have had multiple T15 finishes over the last five years. That list includes Lucas Glover, Adam Schenk, Seamus Power, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, and JT Poston.

Just nine players avoided missing the cut over each of the last five years (min. three appearances): Alex Smalley, Adam Svensson, Seamus Power, Mark Hubbard, Zach Johnson, Nick Hardy, Andrew Landry, and Cam Davis.

The top 10 players in Course History at TPC Deere Run are: Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Maverick McNealy, Adam Schenk, Dylan Frittelli, Seamus Power, Alex Smalley, Adam Svensson, and Greyson Sigg. That paints a very clear course profile picture of accurate approach specialists with spike putting upside and proven results on comp short positional courses who are best suited to attack TPC Deere Run.

Course Comps

As a par-71 at just over 7,200 yards, TPC Deere Run is short by PGA TOUR standards. Still, it features too many long par 3s and par 4s beyond 450 yards to be classified with all other short TOUR courses. With tight tree lines and thick rough that force layups, the formula players have used to find success on other short courses should translate well.

You won’t have to look far to find the top comp course this week, as the last two host venues on the PGA TOUR really do embody all of the relevant characteristics of TPC Deere Run. Both TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club feature tree lines, premium on accurate ball striking, and thick, penal rough surrounding the fairways and greens. At the Travelers Championship, in particular, Jordan Spieth has had repeated crossover success, along with Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger, Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman, and JT Poston.

In addition to TPC River Highlands and Detroit Golf Club, I’m also referencing TPC Twin Cities, TPC Craig Ranch, Country Club of Jackson, and Oakdale Golf & Country Club as easy but less positional golf courses where a driver-heavy approach can still position players with ample birdie opportunities.

But, for accurate ball strikers like Poston, Berger, and Zach Johnson, a fairway-heavy approach will work well here, too. For that reason, courses like Pebble Beach GL and Sedgefield CC also serve as strong comp courses.

Combine performance across this list and the top 10 players in Comp Course History here are: Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay (WD), Aaron Rai, Jacob Bridgeman, Cam Davis, Alex Smalley, Ryo Hisatsune, and Lee Hodges.


  • SG: APP / SG: BS
  • SG: ARG
  • Birdies or Better Gained
  • Good Drives Gained
  • Par-4 Scoring
  • Par 5: 550-600
  • Prox: 75-150
  • SG: TOT (Easy Courses)
  • SG: Putting (Bent) / 3-Putt Avoidance
  • Course & Comp Course History

The best starting point for me in this mini birdie-fest swing of the season would seem to be isolating Birdies or Better Gained. The top 10 players in Birdie or Better Gained entering this week are: Scott Piercy, Kelly Kraft, Patton Kizzire, Wesley Bryan, Ben Griffin, Keith Mitchell, Jacob Bridgeman, Sam Ryder, Maverick McNealy, and Austin Smotherman.

Approach performance hasn’t predicted success as much at the John Deere as most other courses given the larger greens and high Green In Regulation percentage. But, it still stands at a premium in an expected birdie-fest. The 10 best approach players entering this week are: Sepp Straka, Keith Mitchell, Aaron Rai, Kevin Yu, Kelly Kraft, Doug Ghim, Patton Kizzire, Greyson Sigg, Ryan Moore, and Chandler Phillips.

At TPC Deere Run, there are very few long iron approach needed, instead concentrating to the 75-150 yard range. The top-10 in Proximity gained from this range are: Patton Kizzire, Scott Piercy, Andrew Landry, Adam Long, Kelly Kraft, Justin Lower, Ryan Moore, Harry Higgs, Ben Griffin, and Chan Kim.

When combining SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Ball Striking on Comp Courses to isolate the precise ball strikers, just six players rank top 40 in each: Justin Lower, Ben Griffin, Daniel Berger, Bud Cauley, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover, and Seamus Power.

Course Fit by Hole Ranges

Par-4 Scoring is a bit of an overrated stat at TPC Deere Run. But given the importance of making putts, and the presence of 11 par 4s, I think it’s a slightly better reference point for recent form than SG: T2G. With the diverse spread of par-4 hole ranges at TPC Deere Run, it should serve as a helpful resource to identify the players who can best position themselves to generate birdies. The top-10 of par-4 scorers this week includes: Patrick Cantlay (WD), Maverick McNealy, Aaron Rai, Keith Mitchell, Davis Thompson, Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka, Jacob Bridgeman, and Ryo Hisatsune.

Par-5 Scoring from 550-600 rates of particular importance this week. That should favor the players with plus distance who are able to reach in two and more easily capitalize on these birdie opportunities. The top 10 players in Par-5: 550-600 are: Sam Stevens, Scott Piercy, Kevin Tway, SH Kim, Ryan McCormick, Kelly Kraft, Jacob Bridgeman, Henrik Norlander, Patrick Cantlay (WD), and Wesley Bryan.

The ideal fit for this course should rank above average in SG: Ball Striking, SG: Short Game, Birdie or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions) and Comp Course History. Nine players in the 2024 field meet the same criteria: Patrick Cantlay (WD), Sungjae Im, Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Nate Lashley, Doug Ghim, Carson Young, and Kelly Kraft.


Looking at the correlation charts this week, many of the characteristics we’d come to expect from the average TOUR course continue to pop at TPC Deere Run. The most notable changes compared to TOUR average are the de-prioritization of Par-3 Scoring and SG: OTT. With distance advantage mitigated by forced layups and penal rough, and the scoring opportunities coming predominantly from the par 4s and par 5s, that would all seem to check out.

Instead, SG: ARG, Par-4: 400-450 and Good Drives Gained make the most notable jumps in importance. It’s natural to dismiss around-the-green skillsets on a course that routinely yields winning scores beyond 20-under par. However, players are not completely immune from missing these greens in regulation, and history has shown that avoiding bogeys by scrambling for pars is a necessary skillset at this event.

Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT
Top-10 Correlated Stats with SG: TOT at TPC Deere Run

There are 10 players in the field who rank above average in each of the above 10 key stat categories: Patrick Cantlay (WD), Sungjae Im, Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Mark Hubbard, Nate Lashley, Doug Ghim, Carson Young, Kelly Kraft, and Sami Valimaki.


I am 0-for-2 this season betting against Denny McCarthy this season, which is enough of a sample size for me to officially smell the roses and accept that he has elevated his baseline to a higher level than I may have given him credit for in 2024. McCarthy has just two missed cuts over 17 starts this season, including two top-10s and nine top-30 finishes to start the year.

We know Denny’s reputation as one of the most prolific putters on the PGA TOUR, but it’s been interesting to track his best performances coming in more grinding conditions that test players’ all-around games. His ability to contend at difficult venues recently at courses like Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village is an encouraging sign that McCarthy has become much more than just a one-dimensional putting specialist.

If he were to be a one-dimensional putting specialist, however, that works too at TPC Deere Run! Zach Johnson, JT Poston, all Brian Harman, putted their way to victory here despite each entering with TOUR-average tee-to-green metrics and losing to the field in driving distance.

McCarthy has knocked on the door at the John Deere Classic recently with T6 finishes in his last two appearances. Given this event’s reputation for crowning first-time champions, this may be McCarthy best chance yet to pick up his maiden PGA TOUR victory, as he ranks top-20 in the field in terms of Recent Form, Course & Comp Course History, SG: Putting, and Good Drives Gained.


With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 John Deere Classic odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  


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Tier 1

Sungjae Im

Tier 2

Sepp Straka
Maverick McNealy
Ben Griffin
Keith Mitchell
Denny McCarthy
Aaron Rai

Tier 3

Adam Svensson
Adam Schenk
Doug Ghim
Mark Hubbard
Lee Hodges
Davis Thompson

Tier 4

Nate Lashley
Carson Young
Seamus Power
Patton Kizzire

Tier 5

Kelly Kraft
Jacob Bridgeman
Ryan Moore
Harry Higgs


2024 John Deere Classic Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing Comp Course History, SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Par-5: 550-600, and SG: Putting (L36, Bent, 3-Putt Avoidance), followed by a more balanced mix of Birdies or Better Gained, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), SG: ARG, SG: P and SG: TOT (L12 Rounds), and Good Drives Gained.

Model Favorites

As a testament to how poorly the other “stars” in the field this week have played over the course of the 2024 season, it is not Spieth who tops my John Deere Classic model, but rather Keith Mitchell. While known as a bomber and one of the best total drivers on the PGA TOUR, Mitchell pops for his comp course history, with a proven track record on these shorter layouts too across the RBC Canadian Open, CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and 3M Open. He’ll be an interesting bounce-back candidate after a disappointing missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week.

After Mitchell, the rest of my model’s top 10 is rounded out by: Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Patrick Cantlay (WD), Aaron Rai, Jacob Bridgeman, Sungjae Im, Doug Ghim, Patton Kizzire, and Ryo Hisatsune.

There is not one single player I feel I have to build my card around this week when odds open on Monday, so I’ll likely take a reactive approach after seeing how the board falls. Many of the same players I liked at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic like Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, and Keith Mitchell are still bounce-back considerations for me at presumably better odds. Denny McCarthy, Sepp Straka, Lee Hodges, and Seamus Power also standout as potential values.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2024 John Deere Classic odds!


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