2022 John Deere Classic Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on June 29, 2022
john deere classic bets

We’ve reached the stopping point for 2022 John Deere Classic bets and research, in a week which has featured golf commentary about anything but the John Deere Classic. Going toe-to-toe with the Irish Open and LIV Portland the week before the PGA TOUR goes international for the Scottish Open and Open Championship, every top-40 player in the world has opted to pass.

The show goes on, and there are plenty of fringe players in the golf odds who will be eager to pick up a PGA TOUR victory and enjoy all the perks of sustained TOUR status and exemptions that come with it. The John Deere Classic is a bona fide birdie fest, and the winning score should push beyond -20, rewarding precise ball strikers and players who are capable of catching a streaky putter.


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I had every intention of fading the top of the board and spreading my outrights across a wide volume of 80-1+ bombs when I wrote my John Deere Classic preview. At the Travelers Championship last week, I was confident a top-10 player in the field would win, but this week it really is anyone’s guess, with no single player rising above the rest. After Daniel Berger’s withdrawal, however, there was value at the top of the board to exploit, so I ultimately landed on a tighter card with exposure to players with good immediate and comp course form. From a unit allocations standpoint, it’s once again business as usual for John Deere Classic bets:

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
  • First-Round Leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.


Adam Hadwin

My Bet: +2000

Best Odds Still Available:

I did not see myself paying up for anyone in the 20-1 or shorter range when odds opened this Monday, but a withdraw from the prohibitive favorite changes things fairly quickly. Hadwin can now be found as short as the 10-1 favorite on some sportsbooks, which is far too short on a player who’s won just once in his career back in 2017 at the Valspar Championship. I like what I saw from Hadwin on the big stage of the U.S. Open in his previous appearance, as he held his own with the final groups over the weekend to finish T7. Hadwin is No. 1 in SG: TOT over his last 50 rounds and with a T18 and T8 in his two prior John Deere Classic starts, boasts a combination of recent form and course history that is hard to find otherwise this week.

Sahith Theegala

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

Last week I bet young transcendent talent and 2-time PGA TOUR winner Joaquin Niemann at 35-1. This week it’s a rookie who’s never won before and seems to always find a way to eject himself from contention. Life comes at you fast! The stats won’t jump off the page with Sahith, but judging by the eye test, he’s in a top-class of competitors compared to the rest of the field. Theegala should be a top-5 favorite to win this week, so this is a value bet for me on a player who will find success if he channels the same game plan used in his T2 at TPC River Highlands last week.

Patrick Rodgers

My Bet: +4500

Best Odds Still Available:  

I’m used to getting my exposure to Patrick Rodgers as a 100-1+ outright longshot or First Round Leader, so to bite the bullet here at half the odds doesn’t feel great, but that’s the nature of what we’re working with in what could be the weakest field of the year. Rodgers has been automatic off the tee, gaining strokes 1+ stroke OTT in six consecutive starts now. He’s also gained 1+ stroke OTT in seven consecutive starts at the John Deere Classic, which means he should be well positioned to generate scoring opportunities throughout the week. Rodgers has made it through the cut in four straight trips to this event, highlighted by a near-victory in 2017, where he was narrowly edged by a young Bryson DeChambeau. With less resistance in the 2022 field, this may be his best opportunity yet to pick up career win No. 1.

JT Poston

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

JT Poston comes to the John Deere Classic hot off of the best Approach performance of his career, gaining 8.2 strokes at the Travelers. This week on a similar TPC-style positional course, Poston should see a volume of familiar shots and sight lines, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him follow it up with another solid approach performance. Over his last seven starts, Poston has gained 8+ strokes T2G three times, finishing top-10 on each occasion between the RBC Heritage, Wells Fargo Championship, and Travelers Championship. Poston is always live in a putting contest, so if the T2G form continues to elevate, he’ll give himself a chance to contend on Sunday.

Alex Smalley

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Alex Smalley is the forgotten Rookie in this field behind Sahith Theegala and Nick Hardy, but I view Smalley as just as likely to contend this week. He thrives in easy scoring conditions, already contending in his first season at the Bermuda Championship (T12), Corales Puntacana Championship (T2), and Mexico Open (T6). His putter has come and gone, of late, but this is a long number in a weak field for Smalley who ranks top-15 in Par-4 Scoring, Good Drives Gained, and SG: Ball Striking.

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John Huh

My Bet: +7000

Best Odds Still Available:

Far be it from me to fill out a John Deere Classic card without at least one John on it. Last year I was all in on Jhonattan Vegas, this year I’m conservatively in on John Huh. If we blindly follow the stats, Huh is in prime position to attack this course, rating highly across the main key stats this week and riding a streak of three straight top-25 finishes.

Martin Laird

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Martin Laird fits the 2021 Lucas Glover “veteran ball striker who just needs to catch lightning in a bottle putting for four rounds” archetype perfectly this week. Unfortunately, I still think Laird’s putter hasn’t given us any reason to believe he can remain average to the field for four days, so I’ll keep my exposure to FRL and DFS.

Nate Lashley

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Nate Lashley is a renowned birdie maker in easy scoring conditions, which is all you can ask for in a FRL prop at one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR. He ranks No. 8 in Birdies or Better Gained, and enters in great form with seven top-30 finishes over his last ten starts.

David Lipsky

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

Another player who rates high in the stat model, Lipsky’s strengths in Birdies or Better Gained (No. 19) and SG: APP (No. 11) should position himself well to go low in this birdie fest.

Chesson Hadley

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available:

Chesson Hadley is no stranger to going low at the John Deere Classic, just one year removed from co-First Round Leader honors. He now enters in better immediate form on the heels of a T5 at the Travelers Championship. 


Top-40 Finish: Jason Day

My Bet: +115

Best Odds Still Available:

I was worried I wouldn’t be able to find a conviction bet in a field as bereft of talent as this one. Adam Hadwin is the odds on favorite, and a T20 from him still sounds like far from a guarantee. But then I came across plus-odds in the top-40 market on one of the biggest names in the field, and a player who is a top-3 favorite to win across multiple sportsbooks this week. So Jason Day T40 quickly solidifies itself as the conviction bet of the week. Day’s had every opportunity to withdraw from this event, so the fact that he’s stayed committed suggests to me that he’s eager to break this winless draught of his since 2018.  It really should not take much for Jason Day to finish T40 against this field.

Top-30 Finish: David Lipsky

My Bet: +300

Best Odds Still Available:

If you you’re above-average in Good Drives Gained, Bridie or Better Gained, SG: Ball Striking, SG: TOT in Easy Scoring Conditions, and and SG: Putting, you’re going to position yourself well to stay in contention at the John Deere Classic. David Lipsky is one of only five players this week to fit that bill.

Top-20 Finish: Nate Lashley

My Bet: +333

Best Odds Still Available:

Lashley has been a model of consistency recently with seven top-25 finishes over his last ten starts. With one of the weakest fields of the year in store, he should be met with less resistance. In his one prior start at the John Deere Classic, Lashley finished T26 in 2019.


My Pick: Patrick Rodgers

This is when you know you’ve gotten to the end of a really ugly week of golf. I have one golfer to choose, and after already exhausting Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin earlier in the season, Patrick Rodgers is the next man up who carries the balance of course history and recent form that few others in this field can claim. Rodgers contended here in 2017 when he finished runner up to Bryson DeChambeau, and with no intimidating elites in the field this week, it’s a great atmosphere for Rodgers to finally get over the hump and pick up his first career PGA TOUR victory.

If not Rodgers, I would also consider Adam Hadwin, John Huh, or Denny McCarthy


That’ll do it for my 2022 John Deere Classic bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Sunday for the 2022 Scottish Open Preview.

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Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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