2023 John Deere Classic Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done

The last week before the “UK Swing”, the PGA TOUR brings us to Silvis, Illinois for the 2023 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. All of the best players in the world have already made their travel arrangements elsewhere in advance of the Genesis Scottish Open next week, which gives John Deere Classic bets this week a wide open feel. Russell Henley, Cameron Young, and Denny McCarthy are the favorites across golf odds. Not exactly the most appealing of headliners in the wake of Rickie Fowler’s momentous comeback win, but there’s still plenty of value to exploit at the best sports betting sites.

In a field that lacks both an imposing favorite and depth in the bottom half of the board, there are very few players capable of closing out a PGA TOUR win teeing it up this week, which lends itself to a more concentrated betting card of top players.

BEST SPORTSBOOK PROMO CODES FOR GOLF BETTING

HOW I BUILT MY JOHN DEERE CLASSIC BETTING CARD

A very opposite approach to how I built my betting card at last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, I wanted to squeeze in as much exposure as possible to the 40-1 and under range of the betting board. The quality of players beyond that mark are far less this week than a typical PGA TOUR event, so I’m not expecting to see a surprise longshot winner this week. TPC Deere Run is a bit of birdie fest, but it has still rewarded those in the best current form with dependable ball striking and short game.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly PGA TOUR exposure:

• Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the John Deere Classic odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Russell Henley

My Bet: +1900
Best Available Odds:

A winner earlier this season on a current streak of seven top-20 finishes over his last eight starts, Russell Henley may be the only player in this field who enters with zero question marks about his ability to contend in this event. Finishes of T27, 2nd, and T11 over his first three John Deere Classic appearances justify what is already a very obvious fit for his game. He ranks No. 1 in Comp Course History and Fairways Gained, and top-10 in SG: APP, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Good Drives Gained, and Birdies or Better Gained.

I can’t come up with a justifiable reason not to play him this week, so I’ll live or die on the Russ bus once again.

Eric Cole

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, and Wyndham Clark are all players whose statistical profile foreshadowed that a win was coming later on in the season. Cole is not that caliber of player yet, but against this caliber of field, a John Deere Classic win would make sense as a pay off for his consistently elevated play this rookie season.

Cole is the No. 1 ranked player in my model this week, as he ranks No. 1 in Birdies or Better Gained, Bogey Avoidance, 3-Putt Avoidance, and SG: Short Game. Over the last 36 rounds, he is second only to Denny McCarthy in terms of total strokes gained, so 35-1 odds actually feels like a discounted value. With six top-25 finishes over his last nine starts, Cole is steadily trending towards his first career PGA TOUR win.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

Adam Schenk was my featured spotlight player of the week, and with three top-10s over his last five starts and a pair of top-10s at the John Deere Classic over his last four trips, it’s no surprise he’s become a popular bet despite this being an uncomfortably short betting number for him.

As someone who sweat plenty of shots from Schenk loosely in contention at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, I can attest that Schenk looks the part of a markedly improved player in 2023. He’s now gained strokes on approach in seven consecutive starts and spiked for at least four strokes putting on three occasions over that span. That’s an ideal combination for scoring in easy conditions, so it’s no wonder Schenk has found success early in his career at the John Deere Classic. Now in better leading form than ever before, this may be his best opportunity yet to pick up his first career PGA TOUR win.

Chez Reavie

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

If we follow the “JT Poston Rule” of 2022, then Chez Reavie is your incumbent 2023 John Deere Classic winner, assuming history repeats itself. That rule of course is to take the highest finisher at The Travelers Championship in the same season, as TPC River Highlands has historically served as the top comp course to TPC Deere Run. Like Poston in 2022, Chez Reavie delivered his best finish of the season at the 2023 Travelers Championship, finishing T4.

His game continues to trend, as he ranks No. 1 in SG: APP over his last 12 rounds. That includes 8.7 strokes gained on approach at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, which is the second best performance of his entire career. Newfound form on the greens has been the difference maker to unlock a higher ceiling for Reavie in 2023. He now ranks No. 4 in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 36 rounds, and has gained on the field in SG: P in 10 of his last 11 starts. That combination of spike approach and putting upside makes TPC Deere Run a very sensible venue for Reavie to contend on.

Nate Lashley

My Bet: +11000
Best Available Odds:

There are not a ton of longshots that caught my eye this week, a stark contrast from the Rocket Mortgage Classic, which almost exclusively featured longshots on my betting card. Lashley looks to be the lone exception I found win equity and value in this far down the board, as he’s the only player beyond 100-1 odds inside the top 10 of my model.

Lashley ranks inside the top 20 across the key categories of Comp Course History, SG: APP, Prox: 75-150, Birdies or Better Gained, and 3-Putt Avoidance, the only player in this field who can make that claim. With five top-40 finishes over his last eight starts, Lashley’s form is in a fine place to contend against a much weaker field this week.

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)

Stephan Jaeger

My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

I started my Rocket Mortgage Classic FRL card with Jaeger at the same number last week. That did not pan out on Thursday, however, Jaeger still managed to post the low round of the day on Sunday with a final round 63. Detroit Golf Club has proven to be a strong crossover comp for TPC Deere Run, so I love this value at the same odds as last week, knowing Jaeger is always capable of going low.

KH Lee

My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:

The buzz around “TPC Lee” has cooled off a bit in 2023, but I don’t mind buying the dip here, knowing the easier scoring conditions at TPC Deere Run are an ideal fit for his game. Lee ranks top-10 in both Comp Course History and Par-5: 550-600 Scoring, so he may just be due for a nice bounce back week at the John Deere Classic.

Patton Kizzire

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

This is a course history play on Patton Kizzire, who’s on a short list of players who have consistently found their games at TPC Deere Run regardless of form leading in. Kizzire has finished inside the top-30 in all four prior appearances at the John Deere Classic, and enters in respectable form in 2023 with three top-50 finishes over his last five starts. His strengths of approach and putting always make him a suitable FRL choice on courses he’s found prior success at.

Chesson Hadley

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds:

I vividly remember Chesson Hadley backdoor chopping what would have been a solo Munoz FRL at the 2021 John Deere Classic. That is still validation that Hadley is capable of going low on this course regardless of preceding form. In 2023, he’s in better form than before, currently riding a streak of three consecutive top-45 finishes. A T10 finisher at last year’s John Deere Classic, it’s clear this is a course well-suited to Hadley’s game.

Kevin Chappell

My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds: 

A little too volatile for me to take a chance on in the prop and DFS space, Chappell still has plenty of upside to spike for one good round. He ranks top-10 in total strokes gained over the last 24 rounds with four top-30 finishes over that stretch. His plus distance off the tee should make all three par-5s reachable in two, unlocking more birdie-or-better opportunities at this long price.

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Russell Henley

My Bet: +110
Best Available Odds:

Russell Henley is the betting favorite on several sportsbooks, he’s never finished worse than T27 at the John Deere Classic, and he has seven top-20 finishes over his last eight starts against much stronger competition. There’s no reason we should be getting plus odds on this top-20 prop, so I’m not going to over-think this one.

Top-20 Finish: Eric Cole

My Bet: +190
Best Available Odds:

The +190 top-20 odds for the No. 1 player in my model also seems too good to pass up from a value standpoint. Cole has finished top-25 in six of his last nine starts, including high finishes at comp courses in the Travelers Championship and RBC Canadian Open. Ranking top-10 in SG: TOT, SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: ARG, and SG: P, Cole’s game brings a high floor to the John Deere Classic as he continues to chase his first career PGA TOUR win.

Top-20 Finish: Nate Lashley

My Bet: +410
Best Available Odds:

Lashley is a longshot to pick up his second career PGA TOUR win this week, but as the No. 8 overall player in my model, there are plenty of avenues in place for Lashley to play well this week. He’s finishes top-27 in three of his last six starts, including a T17 at the RBC Canadian Open, on one of the top comp courses to TPC Deere Run. Lashley is at his best in easy scoring conditions, and ranks top-5 in both SG: APP and Prox: 75-150, so I’m comfortable taking a chance on a high placement at these odds.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Russell Henley

We’ve reached the stage of the article where I’ve exhausted all complimentary things to say about Russell Henley and his prospects to win the John Deere Classic. He is the best in this field at hitting fairways and greens, and while his ability to win will come down to how many putts he’s able to convert, my expectation is for him to play very well.

I’d penciled in the Wyndham Championship as the event to save Henley for in One And Done, but it’s very unlikely he’ll be the betting favorite that week as well. Henley will be a popular choice, but he’s the player I give the best chance to win this week.

If not Henley, I would also consider Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, or Chris Kirk as OAD picks.

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s John Deere Classic bets. Best of luck this week with your own John Deere Classic bets, and see you on Sunday for the Genesis Scottish Open! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.