2024 PGA TOUR Golf Bets: John Deere Classic Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

The 2024 PGA TOUR golf season continues, with TPC Deere Run next on tap to host the John Deere Classic in Silvis, Illinois, beginning Thursday. Sepp Straka, Jordan Spieth, and Sungjae Im headline John Deere Classic bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite picks among all the golf odds for this tourney. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting sites for each player.

It’s the last week before the “UK Swing”. The PGA TOUR brings us to Silvis, Illinois for the 2024 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. All of the best players in the world have already made their travel arrangements elsewhere in advance of the Genesis Scottish Open next week, which gives John Deere Classic bets this week a wide-open feel. Sungjae Im, Sepp Straka, and Jordan Spieth are the favorites across golf odds. Not exactly the most appealing of headliners, but there’s still plenty of value to exploit at the best sports betting sites.

Below, we’ll go through my John Deere Classic bets. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place John Deere Classic wagers. For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my John Deere Classic preview. 

John Deere CLASSIC BETS: THE FAVORITES

Find the comparison table at the bottom of this post for John Deere Classic odds and the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. Navigate to my longshots post for more golf DFS picks and considerations.

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HOW I BUILT MY John Deere CLASSIC BETTING CARD

Similar to the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week, there are many paths to success at TPC Deere Run’s forgiving layout. With the absence of an imposing favorite, that lends me to construct a much longer card of exposure to longshots with history scoring in easy scoring conditions, and who possess the upside to win this tournament with their putter alone.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2024 John Deere Classic.

• Outrights – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

John Deere CLASSIC BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Denny McCarthy
My Bet: +2500
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player in this week’s tournament preview, McCarthy is a gamer despite his absence of a PGA TOUR victory. That feels like a matter of when, not if, for McCarthy, who continues to put himself in a position to win bigger tournaments. Arguably the best putter on TOUR, his raised baseline from tee to green in 2024 leads me to believe he’s one of the top contenders at this week’s putting contest.

Golf Profit Boosts: All users get a 50% bet365 profit boost on any golfer to win this week. Caesars is also offering a 50% odds boost for PGA TOUR betting.

Maverick McNealy
My Bet: +3000
Best Available Odds:

I was astronomically high on Maverick McNealy at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. A T44 finish later, he’s remained at virtually the same odds for the John Deere Classic. Four rounds later, I don’t feel any differently about McNealy’s prospects of scoring on such a similar layout in the TPC Deere Run. In lesser form, McNealy has put together an impressive resume in the Quad Cities, finishing T8, T18, and T44 in three prior visits.

Seamus Power
My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

Seamus Power – recent winner of the Barbasol Championship and Bermuda Championship – is a king versus soft fields and easy scoring conditions. He seems to have regained his form from last year now, with four finishes of T27 or better since April. TPC Deere Run suits his eye well, too, as he’s made it through the cut in all five of his prior appearances, including four top-25s here.

Ben Griffin
My Bet: +6600
Best Available Odds:

Similar to McNealy, I was extremely high on Ben Griffin’s fit for Detroit GC last week and won’t let one middling finish deter me from doubling down at similar odds again at the John Deere Classic. Griffin is a bona fide birdie maker who thrives when conditions are at their easiest. While not the longest hitter in the field, that won’t be a deterrent at TPC Deere Run with its positional layout and many forced layups.

Lee Hodges
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

The 2023 3M Open champ has an affinity for these risk-reward TPC layouts. Since then, he’s continued to establish a reputation as one of the top up-and-coming iron players on TOUR. He ranks top-20 in terms of SG: APP, Comp Course History, and Recent Form leading in, with three top-25 finishes over his last six starts.

Patton Kizzire
My Bet: +13000
Best Available Odds:

The longshot flavor of the week at the John Deere Classic seems to be Patton Kizzire, as he continues to pick up steam across the industry day by day. Kizzire has suddenly found form with five top-30 finishes over his last six starts. He’s also demonstrated great consistency at the John Deere Classic while in lesser form, with four career top-30 finishes here over his first five appearances.

Troy Merritt
My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

You know you’re operating in a diluted PGA TOUR field when Troy Merritt finds his way onto the card, but I really don’t see enough of a gap between him and the middle-tier players in this week’s field to justify his odds slipping this far. Merritt is a seasoned veteran with ties to the Quad Cities and has made a point of coming to this event each year. He’s coming off of a career-best T17 finish at the 2023 John Deere Classic and is currently true to form with a T17 and T9 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and CJ Cup Byron Nelson within his last five starts.

Chandler Phillips
My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

Ball Striking travels to any course on the PGA TOUR schedule, so I’ll happily hang on the Chandler Phillips train for another week in hopes that his putting is improved at TPC Deere Run. The rookie has acclimated quickly to professional golf with a pair of top-12 finishes over his last three starts and should suit this point-and-shoot layout nicely.

Pierceson Coody
My Bet: +15000
Best Available Odds:

One of the brightest stars on the Junior golf scene in recent memory, the John Deere Classic is exactly the type of stage we have seen players like Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau announce themselves on TOUR before him. His ball-striking form is still a bit raw as he gets situated in his first PGA TOUR start, but a T5 finish three starts ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge is evidence that his game already stands up well against the TOUR’s best.

Kelly Kraft
My Bet: +30000
Best Available Odds:

If you follow a model blindly, you might find Kraft’s name as a surprise towards the top of it this week. An L36 round lookback for him takes us back to the FedEx Fall where he thrived in easy scoring conditions, but he’s looked respectable in recent starts this season too, picking up a pair of top-13 finishes within his last five starts.

John Deere CLASSIC BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Aaron Rai
My Bet: +5500
Best Available Odds:

Rai teased us with a clubhouse first-round lead to pace the morning wave last Thursday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. On an extremely similar layout at TPC Deere Run, we should expect Rai to remain in form for another hot start this Thursday.

Seamus Power
My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Always a threat to go low in easy scoring conditions, this is a comfort course for the Irishman and one he’s proven capable of taking low before. With four top-25 finishes already at the John Deere Classic, there’s no doubt Power knows how to find birdies at TPC Deere Run.

Lee Hodges
My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds:

Hodges carries a ceiling of spike approach and putting upside that few others in this field can measure up to. He took TPC Twin Cities’ risk-reward layout low in his 2023 victory, and has the tools to get out to a hot start this week as well.

Patton Kizzire
My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds:

Approach and Putting are the foundations of Kizzire’s game, which have allowed him to sustain a PGA TOUR career for this long. In improved form leading into this week, those same skills unlock a heightened ceiling to find ample birdies around this course, where he has proven to find plenty of success in the past.

Troy Merritt
My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:

Similar to Kizzire, Merritt is a veteran who continues to regain his vintage form this season. At his best, Merritt is a fairway finder with spike approach and putting upside, which are all key characteristics to score at TPC Deere Run.

John Deere CLASSIC BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Lee Hodges > Doug Ghim
My Bet: -110

Doug Ghim will have the local crowds on his side this week, in select company amongst PGA TOUR players from Iowa. However, that hasn’t quite translated to success at the John Deere Classic just yet. His course history is a mixed bag with two missed cuts, a T18 and T26, over four prior starts. In terms of recent form, it’s been an ugly summer for Ghim, who’s failed to crack the top 30 in an event since April.

On the other hand, Hodges can four top-30 finishes to his name over the same stretch and made it through the cut in his only prior trip to TPC Deere Run. Both players have moderate upside this week, but Hodges’ floor is considerably higher, given his current form.

Top-40 Finish: Kelly Kraft
My Bet: +220
Best Available Odds:

Kelly Kraft gets a discount this week by way of simply not playing very regularly on the PGA TOUR. Taking the Kevin Kisner approach, Kraft knows his game and selectively builds his schedule around short and easy birdie fests like the John Deere Classic, which allow him to lean on his strength of driving accuracy, approach play, and putting. He’s made it through the cut in five out of six career appearances here, including a career-best finish of T5.

Top-20 Finish: Patton Kizzire
My Bet: +400
Best Available Odds:

If the approach and putting form persist, Kizzire has an ideal game to score at TPC Deere Run. He’s had plenty of success at this course in the past with four top-30 finishes at the John Deere Classic, and enters in great form to keep that tend going.

GOLF DAILY FANTASY CONTESTS

Check out my golf DFS picks post for the John Deere Classic for Underdog drafts strategy, along with traditional DFS contests.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Denny McCarthy

A short second shot course with oversized greens, TPC Deere Run has all the makings of a putting contest, which may ultimately come down to who can sink the most 20-foot birdies. I like McCarthy’s prospects in that scenario, as he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field from a putting pedigree standpoint. We won’t see Denny McCarthy as a top-5 favorite again this season, and with a pair of T6 finishes over his last two John Deere Classic starts, this is as good a time as ever to roll out McCarthy in OAD.

If not McCarthy, I would also consider playing Sepp Straka, Sungjae Im, or Maverick McNealy in OAD.

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own John Deere Classic bets, and see you on Sunday for the Genesis Scottish Open preview.

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JOHN DEERE CLASSIC BETS: THE CARD

Best Odds For John Deere Classic

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