For the second straight season, the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs square off in the AFC Championship Game. A spot in Super Bowl 57 hangs in the balance against either the Eagles or 49ers. This article will look at Bengals run-game tendencies to target Joe Mixon props for Sunday’s game. The Bengals’ lead running back is a staple in their offense, coming off a 100-yard performance in the AFC Divisional Round.
The Bengals are at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs and the game has a -point over/under. Place a bet on any prop by clicking on odds in this post.
Joe Mixon Player Props
For more props analysis this weekend, visit our NFL Player Props page.
Rushing Yards Props
Mixon sat out the Bengals’ Week 13 win over Kansas City with an injury. In his place, backup Samaje Perine rushed for more than 100 yards at 5.0 yards per carry. The bulk of Perine’s yardage came in between the tackles, where the Chiefs gave up more than six YPC. This season, 60% of Mixon’s carries (144/240) and 56.5% of his yardage (540/956) came between the guards. His highest rush frequency comes off carries to the right-middle, or the two hole, per PFF.
Mixon’s highest yards per attempt inside the tackles come off the right guard (4.6), which is where Alex Cappa plays. Cappa missed the first two playoff games with an injury, but is reportedly “improving every day” but still questionable, at best, to play this week.
Undoubtably, the Chiefs learned from their inefficiencies in Week 13. Chris Jones may shade to the play side more frequently, or over the right side A-Gap (RB’s two hole) to counter what Perine was able to accomplish last time. Without Cappa in this spot– or with Cappa less than 100%– this may not be the most effective rushing lane.
However, the Bengals’ offensive line, down three starters, got a significant push against Buffalo in the AFC Divisional Round. The Chiefs’ DL is better, but a similar effort to last week would vault Mixon well Over yards.
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Rushing Attempts Props
If you subscribe to the idea that Mixon will go Over yards, then it’s worth taking Over carries, as well. This season, Mixon only rushed for 3.9 yards per attempt.
However after Week 4, Mixon averaged more than five YPC in five of six games in which he received at least 14 carries. In this instance, if you’re considering taking Over Mixon’s carries, couple it with over his yardage. It’s a correlated parlay, but also has plenty of legs in data behind it. Zac Taylor and the offense showed that if the run game can’t get going, they abandon it.
The reason I mentioned after Week 4 is because the Bengals reconstructed their offensive line this offseason. Cohesion takes time. In those first four games, the OL surrendered 16 sacks (four per game); after Week 4, that number dropped to 2.1.
If you’re looking to take a Mixon Anytime Touchdown prop, shop your lines. It’s priced as short as -135 at Caesars Sportsbook and as long as .
In addition to 21 carries, Perine also saw seven targets, bringing in six of them for 49 yards. While the first reaction may be that Mixon isn’t a receiving back, the Bengals target running backs on 22.2% of passes, the seventh-most in the NFL.
Mixon has a career-high 75 targets this year, shattering his previous high of 55 under Andy Dalton in 2018. Those 75 targets resulted in 60 receptions. However, that target volume’s dropped in Mixon’s last three outings. Unfortunately, there’s little correlation between game flow/opponent and Mixon’s target share. If you are looking to target Over Mixon’s receptions, DraftKings Sportsbook offers the best price by a healthy margin at the time of publish. (Note: DK offers +100 on over 3.5 receptions while FanDuel offers -106 on under 3.5 receptions, creating a -1.4% hold on the market.) Use the Joe Mixon props table above to shop the best odds.
Like the rushing props, if you’re betting Over Mixon’s receptions, couple it with Over yards, too. He hasn’t caught four or more passes for Under 24 yards since Week 6.
AFC Championship Odds: Bengals At Chiefs
Bet on the AFC Championship Game by clicking on odds in the table below.