NFL Playoff Odds: Bengals QB Joe Burrow Props For AFC Championship vs. Chiefs

Written By Derek Wagner on January 26, 2023
joe burrow props

NFL playoff odds for the AFC Championship feature the Cincinnati Bengals as on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs () with the total for the game is set at . In this article, we’ll review Joe Burrow props. Place a bet on the Bengals quarterback by clicking any odds in the post.


Following a fabulous finish to the season, Joe Burrow and the Bengals go for 11 straight wins, a streak that includes a 27-24 victory over the Chiefs back in Week 13. For more props analysis this weekend, visit our NFL Player Props page.

Joe Burrow Passing Props: Yardage

During the 10-game winning streak, Burrow has gone under passing yards in seven of 10 games. Although trends like this are not worth making a bet on, they are noteworthy nonetheless.

Going into the AFC Championship, Burrow’s passing yardage prop varies across numerous sportsbooks. BetRivers offers the lowest number – at the time of publish – if you’re looking to take Over his yards while PointsBet offers a number six yards higher if you are interested in the Under. Against a Chiefs defense ranked league average or lower in both pass DVOA and dropback EPA, yardage could be easy to come by for the Bengals through the air.

There should be no shortage of yardage for Joe Burrow with weapons like Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase streaking down the field. This rarely happened in the AFC Divisional Round against the Bills; however, the Bengals entered the fourth quarter up by two touchdowns. Game script allowed them to run the football and drain the clock in the final quarter.

Keep in mind that the Chiefs led the league in pass interference penalties with 14 this season. In fact, they yielded 231 yards on pass interference penalties, second most in the league. If the Chiefs secondary gets beat by the combination of Higgins and Chase on Sunday, they could very likely get called for PI and negatively affect the over for Joe Burrow’s passing yards.

Attempts, Completions, Touchdowns

Although the Bengals throw the ball a ton, Joe Burrow has only gone over passing attempts six times this season.

Despite questions about their offensive line, Zac Taylor has continued to let his quarterback sling it. On the season, the Bengals rank seventh in pass play percentage (61.7%). The script could flip, however, come Sunday in Arrowhead. Over their last four games, the Chiefs defense ranks bottom 10 in rushing EPA. Additionally, Kansas City has allowed 4.9 yards per carry over those four games. For reference, the 4.9 YPC would rank sixth highest in the league. Their rush defense is clearly their weakness entering the AFC Championship game against the Bengals.

Burrow has gone over passing touchdowns in 12 games this season. With how often Cincinnati throws the football, this is not surprising. However, the heavy juice makes this a hefty price to pay for a player prop. For what it’s worth, Burrow has gone over this number in each of his last three games against Kansas City.

Joe Burrow Rushing Props

Although he’s viewed as one of the best passers in the league, Joe Burrow has certainly shown he’s capable of scrambling when he has to. Part of this is because he dealt with a poor offensive line, and part of it was Burrow taking what the defense gave him. On the season, he has five rushes that have eclipsed 15 yards. It only takes one of these in order for the young star to hit his Over rushing yards against the Chiefs.

Perhaps a more intriguing prop is his Anytime Touchdown prop, set at . Including the postseason, Burrow has rushed for six touchdowns on the year. In fact, one of his rushing touchdowns came against the Chiefs back in Week 13.

What I’m Betting

I’ll be betting Over rushing yards for Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season with 444 yards.


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