2020 Election Odds: Trump, Biden, Or Bust

Written By Chops | Last Updated
What are the new rules about modern presidential elections? It’s that the old rules no longer apply. In 2016, Donald Trump smashed old political conventions by not just grabbing his party’s nomination as a total scandal-plagued outsider, but by winning the whole damn election. In 2020, Joe Biden wasn’t competitive in Iowa and New Hampshire. Or Nevada. He had no momentum. He literally looked like your confused old grandpa lost in a Walmart. Then he won South Carolina. Everything started to snowball in his favor. He had “Joementum.” Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race and endorsed him. He gained more steam. Then on (Super) Tuesday, he trounced Bernie Sanders. He went from bordering on comical afterthought to clear front-runner and likely nominee in a matter of weeks. Biden has seen his 2020 presidential election odds jump from around +2000 mere weeks ago to +175 today. This has never happened before in modern politics.
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The five reasons why this happened

Given how unpredictable elections have been in the past four years, the easiest response is to just say 🤷‍♂️. But there’s more to it than that:
  1. Turns out Biden was right about his support with African-Americans and minorities. As the primaries have shifted to more diverse states, Biden’s picked up steam. They never abandoned him. That’s a good sign for his future elect-ability.
  2. As Sanders did well, moderates in the Democratic party rallied around Biden. Party leaders view “Bernie Bros” like some Republicans view Trump die-hards.
  3. Success breeds success. Winning South Carolina proved Biden’s viability. Especially as it pertained to point #2 above.
  4. Biden got Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar to not just drop out–but endorse him. MAJOR coup on the eve of Super Tuesday. Don’t be shocked if one of the two ends up on the ticket or both with high-placed cabinet positions.
  5. Because of all the above, the approximately 50% of Democrats who recently made up their mind on who to vote for all picked Biden.
With a solid minority base to go with suburban moderates and an older Boomer demographic, Biden has a legit coalition heading into the next wave of primaries.

#BloombergOut

On Wednesday, Michael Bloomberg dropped out of the 2020 campaign. His campaign will go down as a historic waste of money. The $500M Bloomberg spent on the campaign won him America Samoa. That’s it. Bloomberg is officially Giuliani 2.0. In 2008, Giuliani was considered a possible Republican front-runner. He raised a lot of party money. Rudy focused his campaign strategy on Florida. He paid no attention to Iowa and New Hampshire, threw in shaky debate performances, and flamed out. While Bloomberg spent his own money, everything else is the same. He dodged Iowa and New Hampshire. He put all of his eggs in the Super Tuesday basket. Bloomberg looked awful in debates. Like Giuliani, Bloomberg mostly came across as an angry old white man. Now, his watch has ended. Bloomberg’s supporters are more Biden than Bernie. Expect them to rally around Biden.

Speaking of Iowa and New Hampshire, they mean nothing anymore…

Joe Biden finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. In modern elections, no candidate has ever performed so poorly in those two states and gone on to win his/her party’s nomination. Biden will certainly rewrite that story. There’s been a lot of talk in recent years regarding changing the primary calendar. From a population and demographic perspective, Iowa and New Hampshire aren’t really representative of the rest of the country. Given how Biden’s campaign has totally transformed since South Carolina, expect that chatter to grow louder.

Are there any value bets left?

If you’re looking at the odds, this is really down to Donald Trump (-162) or Joe Biden now. As I wrote earlier this week, even if the delegate split leads to a contested Democratic convention — Biden will win the nomination. Elizabeth Warren couldn’t even win her own home state (she finished third!). She’ll be out. Bernie is pretty much done. Your candidates are Trump and Biden. Aside from the Mike Pence Hail Mary +15000 handcuff wager, your betting options are now down to Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
CandidatePredictIt Price or MarketEquivalent OddsBet365 Odds
Ron DeSantis$0.28 – Bet NOW+257+275
Donald Trump$0.27 – Bet NOW+270+275
Joe Biden$0.21 – Bet NOW+376+650
Kamala Harris$0.08 – Bet NOW+1150 +1400
Gavin Newsom$0.07 – Bet NOW+1329+1400
Pete Buttigieg$0.07 – Bet NOW+1329+2800
Mike PencePence files for President before 2023?N/A+1800
Nikki HaleyFemale President in 2024?N/A+2000
Michelle ObamaFemale President in 2024?N/A+2500
Elizabeth WarrenDem 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+3300
Elise StefanikFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Hillary ClintonFemale President in 2024?N/A+4000
Mike PompeoGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
AOCAOC files for President before 2024?N/A+5000
Dwayne JohnsonN/AN/A+5000
Candace OwensFemale President in 2024?N/A+5000
Ivanka TrumpGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Tucker CarlsonGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+5000
Jeff BezosN/AN/A+6000
Ted CruzGOP 2024 Presidential nominee?N/A+6600

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