3 NFL Divisional Futures Picks, Including Jets Betting Odds

Written By Derek Wagner on July 13, 2023

With the NFL regular season quickly approaching, let’s dig into some divisional odds. As is the case in recent seasons, at least one team will likely ascend from last to first place in its division. The 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars’ odds are a prime example of that. This time around, New York Jets’ odds are among the candidates to weigh. But first, here’s a bit more detail on the history behind this notion.

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analyzing worst-to-first philosophy

Jacksonville accomplished this feat last season after firing Urban Meyer and replacing him with Doug Pederson at head coach. The offense took a massive leap, as Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ passing attack finished No. 6 in both dropback EPA and pass DVOA. With the help of the Titans’ seven-game losing streak to wrap up the campaign, Jacksonville delivered its first AFC South crown since 2017.

Below is a list of the other recent teams that have accomplished this feat.

2021: Bengals
2020: Commanders
2019: None
2018: Texans, Bears
2017: Jaguars, Eagles

AFC East: Appraising Jets Odds

After finishing with the AFC East’s worst record in 2022, New York slots in behind Buffalo within this betting market (). Primarily viewed as a quarterback away from competing, the Jets went out and traded for four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Additionally, they signed receivers Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Mecole Hardman to bolster their depth at the position behind Garrett Wilson. For context, New York rank No. 29 in dropback EPA last year — with the combination of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco under center. Rodgers could very well turn their offense into a respectable unit, but New York’s schedule is a gauntlet. Below is how Jets odds line up from the get-go.

Week 1: Bills (Home)
Week 2: Cowboys (Away)
Week 3: Patriots (Home)
Week 4: Chiefs (Home)
Week 5: Broncos (Away)
Week 6: Eagles (Home)
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: Giants (Away)
Week 9: Chargers (Home)
Week 10: Raiders (Away)
Week 11: Bills (Away)

Instead of targeting the Jets at their current position, there may be a more appealing in-season price tag. In Week 10, the Bills battle the Broncos on Monday Night Football, meaning they’ll be at a rest disadvantage versus Robert Saleh’s squad the following Sunday.

In total, the Jets have five games in which they’ll have a rest advantage over their opponents. Perhaps a bettor should aim to target Jets odds before their second meeting with Buffalo or following their tilt against the Eagles in Week 6.

NFC South: Buy Into Atlanta

The Falcons, Panthers, and Saints all had a 7-10 record last season — one game back of the lowly Bucs. New Orleans is the favorite to win the division () after reeling in Derek Carr with a four-year contract.

Meanwhile, Atlanta upgraded its ground game by selecting tailback Bijan Robinson with its first-round pick. Robinson generated 21 explosive rushes (15+ yards) in college, which would’ve been second most in the NFL last season. Expect Falcons coach Arthur Smith to creatively utilize Robinson’s potential while also aiding signal caller Desmond Ridder in his first full season.

On the other side of the ball, there are concerns for Atlanta. The Falcons’ defense finished dead-last in pressure rate a year ago and even ranked bottom-five in EPA allowed. Despite adding edge rushers Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree in the offseason, both may be past their prime.

To upgrade a secondary that showcased a bottom-10 coverage (via PFF) a year ago, Atlanta signed free-agent safety Jessie Bates. During his first five seasons in the league, Bates accumulated an impressive 14 interceptions — four of which came last year. In addition to Bates, the Falcons traded a fifth-round pick for ex-Lions corner Jeff Okudah. Okudah dealt with lingering injuries his first two seasons in the league, yet he was finally healthy last season and thus had his best campaign to date. An improved secondary could consequently improve the Falcons’ pass rush.

Unlike the Jets, Atlanta’s schedule is easier to kick off the campaign. Here are the presumed starting quarterbacks that they’ll face over the first seven weeks.

Week 1: Bryce Young
Week 2: Jordan Love
Week 3: Jared Goff
Week 4: Trevor Lawrence
Week 5: C.J. Stroud
Week 6: Sam Howell
Week 7: Baker Mayfield

Only Goff and Lawrence accrued a top-10 dropback EPA last season. The rest are young and unproven commodities, with two being rookies, as well as Howell and Love seeing minimal playing time thus far. Therefore, Falcons’ odds are certainly worth considering at this juncture. The best number that bettors will find among nationwide operators is .

NFC North: Windy City Magic?

As stated earlier, Chicago last won the division in 2018. The NFC North is up for grabs once again following the departure of Rodgers.

The Bears revamped their offense, adding guard Nate Davis from the Titans and Darnell Wright at tackle in the draft. Undeniably, it will be an uphill battle for a unit that allowed a 25.4% pressure rate last year — the fifth highest in the league.

However, in their trade with the Panthers, Chicago tacked on true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore to pair with Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool. The addition of Moore has the Bears’ coaching staff hopeful that Justin Fields will make a Jalen Hurts-like jump in 2023.

Defensively, the Bears lack a respectable pass rush while producing the second-lowest pressure rate in the league last season. Combine that issue that with the uncertainty in the secondary, as rookie corner Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon expect to play significant roles. That said, there’s still time to sign a veteran pass rusher before training camp.

Overall, Chicago () has some appeal, yet I couldn’t get to the finish line with how the roster currently sets up. Continue to monitor Bears odds this summer, though.