Odds To Be Next Head Coach Of New York Jets
With the firing of Robert Salah, the New York Jets are trying to save their season. One of the enduring realities of sports is an underperforming team firing their coach to try and salvage a result. Sometimes, it works, but firing the coach is not a catchall solution in every case. Below, we’ll look at the Jets next head coach odds. Note that these odds are only available in some states with regulated sports betting.
Jets Next Head Coach Odds
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Teams
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Ben Johnson
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Mike Vrabel
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Jeff Ulbrich
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Bobby Slowik
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Kliff Kingsbury
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Aaron Glenn
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Klint Kubiak
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Brian Flores
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Kirby Smart
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Todd Monken
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Ryan Day
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Joe Brady
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Liam Coen
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Recent NFL History
In the last decade, there have been a handful of NFL coaches fired after very disappointing early season results. Josh McDaniels was fired in Vegas last Halloween. Dan Quinn was let go by the Falcons after 5 weeks in 2020, one week longer than Bill O’Brien got in Houston. Jay Gruden’s 2019 Washington performance got him fired. 2018 saw Gregg Williams take over from Hue Jackson on an underperforming Browns team. In 2017, Steve Spanuolo was fired after five games in New York. (Jon Gruden resigned in 2021 for the Raiders, who were 3-2 with him and 7-5. That was due to his offensive comments, and not on-field performance, but for completion, it’s here.)
Go back to 2010 and you have what the Jets are hoping for. Jets fans hope this is the Wade Phillips firing in favor of Jason Garrett, where the 1-7 Cowboys suddenly remembered their talents and went 5-3 down the stretch. Of the teams with genuine ambitions who have fired their coaches in the last decade, Cleveland went from 2-5-1 with Jackson to 5-3 after him. The post-Dan Quinn Falcons only won 4 games in the 11 after his firing. the Texans couldn’t salvage anything more than 4-12 after their 0-4 start despite that being a full, healthy season of Deshaun Watson. Jay Gruden’s firing didn’t help, though the Commanders were only expected to win 6.5 games that year.
Could This Go Badly?
The downsides are clear – firing Spagnuolo didn’t make the Odell and Eli Giants magically better, and the Josh McDaniels firing last year didn’t save the Raiders. Sometimes, there have been seasons saved to some degree, but it’s not a guarantee. Of the 6 firings in the last decade and Phillips-for-Garrett, only two times did the team go above .500 in the rest of the season. The Jets doing this after 5 games, while still 2-3 and in the 17-game era, gives them the best chance to achieve an outcome. If they get the bump.
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Current Problems For The Jets
The difference between the Jets and some of the other success stories of a midseason firing is that those were inarguably talented teams. Those teams were wildly underperforming both their talent and, in many cases, their underlying metrics. The Oilers team that made the Cup were still Top 5 in many advanced metrics, they just couldn’t score. They were always due for positive regression. The Jets aren’t a mediocre team that’s 2-3 after playing a decently tough schedule.
Put more bluntly, is Robert Salah the reason Aaron Rodgers sucks? Rodgers is 21st in EPA, 27th by Success Rate, and in the bottom 10 by EPA despite having a bottom 5 average Air Yardson his throws. He’s inaccurate and inefficient despite mostly throwing short passes. Is Robert Salah the problem? Of course not.
Salah was hired as a defensive coach, and he has handed over play-calling duties offensively to Rodgers’ hand-picked coordinator, Nate Hackett. Salah’s done his part—the Jets are 6th by defensive EPA so far this season after putting up a Top 5 unit last year.
The problems with the Jets are offensively. The Jets are in the bottom 10 by EPA and only 19th by Success Rate. The Jets are 27th in Rushing EPA as well. Rodgers’ lack of success and Hackett’s terrible playcalling is allowing teams to load the box.
Jets Next Head Coach Odds Analysis
It is generally true that teams tend to go opposite their last coach when hiring new coaches. Miami went from a defensive coach in Brian Flores to the latest shiny toy offensively in Mike McDaniels, and that seems likely here. Klint Kubiak will get an interview, but the Saints offense collapsing in on itself the last three weeks limits his appeal.
Ben Johnson is the obvious name New York will try to get, but he had offers this past season and chose to stay in New York. If Rodgers doesn’t get better and the Jets look stuck in the mud, he might choose another job. That said, how many people have ever turned down a job offer in New York to stay in Detroit?
Prospects
This is likelier a death knell for the Jets’ season than a harbinger of success. Yes, a new coach could come in and achieve outcomes, but the track record in the last decade of early-season NFL firings is spotty. There have been successes in other sports, but the wider runway seems to help there. Here, the Jets play on Monday Night Football this week against the Bills. This game is the difference between being in the division lead and being 2.5 games back.
This is a big gamble. The decision, as the Jets fire Salah, won’t fix Rodgers. This is a panic move from a meddling owner.
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