Jets Futures Tank After Aaron Rodgers Achilles Injury

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on September 12, 2023

The New York Jets’ shocking come-from-behind, overtime victory against the Bills on Monday Night Football qualifies as one of the most impressive victories of the season. Between Garrett Wilson’s incredible touchdown catch to the punt return touchdown in OT, it was a classic. Unfortunately, it’s also causing a crash in Jets odds across futures markets, because Aaron Rodgers won’t play the rest of the year.

Rodgers is out, an Achilles injury ending the season of the four time MVP. Jets coach Robert Salah has said Zach Wilson will be the starter the rest of the season, but in theory the Jets could get a replacement. So, how are markets reacting to Rodgers’ injury and how big of a downgrade is Wilson from Rodgers?

When betting the newly adjusted markets, make sure to check out the best sports betting sites to make sure you’re getting the best prices on Jets futures odds.

Aaron Rodgers Injury

While the Rodgers injury suspected to be an Achillies tear and Wilson named starter for the whole season, the consensus is that the Jets will take a big step back. Pundits such as Dan Orlovsky are claiming that if Rodgers hadn’t gotten hurt, the Jets would win the Super Bowl without this injury. The problem with claims of that nature are that they assume Rodgers was going to be a meaningful upgrade on Wilson when that was decidedly unclear.

Rodgers, at the age of 38, was 23^rd in Dropback EPA, 22^nd in Success Rate, and 18^th in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) in 2022 in Green Bay. The notion that he was going to return to his MVP form from 2020 and 2021 was always reckless speculation.

Given the 2022 baseline, the proposition the Jets were going to be meaningfully better than a fringe playoff team was always a stretch. Their 9.5 win total preseason and their 3^rd place on the division odds board were more reflective of reality. Wilson is probably worse, but if your expectations had been properly calibrated, he’s probably not that much worse.

To Make The Playoffs ()

The only comparable case for this is the ’08 Patriots, but the differences are important. The Patriots were a 16-0 team the previous year with Tom Brady, whereas the Jets were a 7-win team hoping to elevate. The Jets’ Defense showed how they managed to win 7 games last year by turning Buffalo over 4 times, but that is an unsustainable path to victory.

It’s crude to say it but the case for Jets optimism to still make the playoffs isn’t that weak, mostly because it’s unclear how much of an upgrade Rodgers really was in the first place. If the Jets defense can play like it did tonight, the Jets being a fringe contender for the 7 seed isn’t out of play.

The other side of this of course is that Nate Hackett’s deficiencies as an offensive play caller could have been mitigated by a veteran QB who could call a game on the field. With Wilson calling plays, Hackett will need a crash course in play calling or the Jets Defense will be failed many, many times.

Jets to win AFC East

The AFC East situation isn’t terrible for the Jets, given that the Patriots and Bills lost this week. The Dolphins offense looked strong in Week 1, but their defense did look incredibly shaky. If the Bills’ offensive struggles continue, which is by no means guaranteed, the Jets are not out of this.

The Jets remain in third in the AFC East odds, but despite winning against the Bills, their odds have taken a hit. From consensus odds around +300 before Week 1, the Jets’ price has fallen since. With the news that Wilson is the starter, the Jets would either need injuries or a series of bad luck ahead of them to win more than both of Miami and Buffalo, even with the game up on the Bills.

Jets To Win The Super Bowl ()

As much as it would be a sports movie ending, it’s hard to see how the Jets could win the Super Bowl. Even if Zach Wilson improves on the version of himself he was in 2022, to even contemplate it requires so much suspension of disbelief it’s not worth it. The Jets have fallen considerably in this market, as the perceived gap between Rodgers and Wilson causes them to fall from +1500 to their current price. That said, the Jets are falling from a high projection and unearned spot on the odds board.

Best of luck betting Jets Futures odds.