NFL playoff odds for the NFC Championship feature the Philadelphia Eagles as spread favorites at home against the San Francisco 49ers with the total in the game set at . In this article, we’ll review Jalen Hurts props. Place a bet on the Eagles quarterback by clicking any of the odds in the post.
JALEN HURTS PLAYER PROPS
For more props analysis this weekend, visit our NFL Player Props page.
The Jalen Hurts MVP Finalist Season
Following a first-round exit in last year’s postseason, it didn’t take long for Jalen Hurts to change the trajectory of the Eagles. Everything seemed to change on draft night when the Eagles sent a first-round pick to the Titans in exchange for star WR A.J. Brown. The acquisition of Brown has seemingly unlocked the star potential of Hurts and has helped turn him into one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Hurts will face the biggest challenge of his young career this weekend when the 49ers come to town for the NFC Championship game.
Jalen Hurts Passing Props: Yardage
The second play of last week’s game against the Giants was indication enough that Jalen Hurts’s shoulder was fine. Hurts hit DeVonta Smith for a 40-yard reception on the second play against New York, nixing the idea that his shoulder injury was still bothering him. The third-year quarterback out of Alabama missed two games late in the season with a shoulder injury but has clearly recovered. After finishing the 2021 campaign at about league average in dropback EPA, Hurts finished this season fifth in dropback EPA this year.
Entering the NFC Championship Game, Hurts’ passing yardage prop varies across different sportsbooks. BetRivers Sportsbook is offering the lowest number – at the time of publish – if you’re looking to take Over on his yards, while PointsBet offers a number five yards higher if you’re looking at an Under. Yardage certainly won’t come easy for the Eagles, as the 49ers defense ranked fifth in pass DVOA and third in dropback EPA.
We can’t take much away from last week’s game against the Giants, since the Eagles ran the ball in the second half to complete the blowout victory.
Looking at the 49ers defense, there is one weakness that Jalen Hurts should be able to exploit and that comes in the form of CB Deommodore Lenoir. Due to injuries at the position, Lenoir has been thrust into more playing time for San Francisco. Unfortunately for them, he hasn’t faired that well, only earning a 55.2 coverage grade (via PFF). In fact, he allowed the third most receiving yards (846) of any cornerback in the league when targeted this season. If Hurts is going to go over his passing yards prop, it will likely come as a result of getting A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith matched up on Lenoir.
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Attempts, Completions, Touchdowns
Hurts has only gone Over passing attempts six times this season. He has gone over this number in three of his last five games, but one of those was against a Titans defense that ranked first in the NFL against the run. Given that the Eagles run the ball at the fifth highest rate in the NFL (49.2%), I don’t anticipate Hurts to throw the ball a ton on Sunday.
Although Hurts’ threw for two or more passing touchdowns nine times this season, he failed to throw a TD in two of his last three games. Mind you, he injured his shoulder in the Bears game. Additionally, the 49ers’ secondary grades out as the best coverage unit in the league, per PFF.
Outside of increased yardage opportunities with A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith in the open field, there’s not much reason to believe the Eagles will chuck it around given their high running rate.
Jalen Hurts Rushing Props
Although Hurts and the Eagles clobbered the Giants last week, the young quarterback still had nine rushing attempts for 34 yards. Hurts’ shoulder isn’t a concern for this prop considering the amount of carries last week. The real concern lies with the quickness of the 49ers defense. Nick Bosa creates a problem on the edge for Hurts, specifically on designed runs. Bosa is one of the few edge rushers that has speed to track down Hurts in the open field.
That being said, it only takes a couple well timed runs for Hurts to reach yards. The more intriguing prop could be his Anytime Touchdown prop, set at . Hurts had the second most rushing touchdowns on the season (13).
What I’m Betting
I’ll be backing a Hurts Anytime TD at . As of now, I don’t see much value on his passing props.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: 49ERS AT EAGLES
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