An incredible year exceeding expectations continues for the Jacksonville Jaguars. They travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the AFC’s top seed, the Kansas City Chiefs, in the AFC Divisional Round. While not the most prolific QB matchup of the weekend, we’re still treated to a battle between Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence on Saturday. Below, we’ll look at each QB’s potential and more Jaguars vs. Chiefs props to consider.
The Chiefs are home favorites and the game has an over/under set at . Find a full betting preview of Jaguars at Chiefs odds here.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs Props
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Prop Strategy
Despite just 44 combined points last time around, this game sets up to be an offensive showcase. The over/under not only suggests it to be the highest-scoring affair this weekend, but that number’s risen from an opening mark of 51.5. The Chiefs are also comfortable home favorites. In that instance, normally over passing props for KC is a dicey proposition because teams that build a big lead tend to slow things down and run more. But not the Chiefs. They’re sixth in the NFL in pace when leading by 7+ points.
A high over/under and high spread (for the playoffs) suggests Mahomes and the offense will find plenty of success. On the other side, the Jaguars run at the ninth-highest pace when trailing by 7+ and in a neutral script. Looking at offensive yardage props is a good strategy based on the odds here, too.
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Jaguars vs. Chiefs Props To Target
Patrick Mahomes Over Passing Yards
Best available odds: Over/Under ()
In their Week 10 meeting, Mahomes piled up 331 yards and four touchdowns despite just two second-half possessions and an end-of-game possession. Another possession was removed from him thanks to a special teams gaffe. He finished third in EPA per play and success rate on the week.
This yardage won’t be picked up by bombing the ball downfield, as the Jaguars drop coverage and corral receivers after the catch. They’re allowing the 13th-lowest average depth of target (aDOT, 7.7) but the fourth-most yards after catch (YAC) in the league this season. Players like Kadarius Toney and Travis Kelce excel at YAC, with Toney averaging 12.3 yards per reception on short routes with an aDOT of just 4.3. Kelce has the second-most YAC among tight ends this season.
The old drop-eight strategy of perplexing Mahomes no longer does so. He finished 2022 with career-highs in completion percentage (67.1) and yards (5,250). I’m likely to bet over 310.5 passing yards and expecting a methodical approach to meeting that number.
Kadarius Toney Over Receiving Yards
Best available odds: Over/Under ()
Okay, deep breath on this one. Toney’s surpassed 20 snaps with the Chiefs once this season and gone over 25.5 receiving yards twice. In their last game against the Raiders, he ran six routes and saw two targets for 18 yards. However, I’m trusting Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy’s strategic and selective use of certain players for certain games. Why doesn’t a single wide receiver have 1,000 yards despite Mahomes’ near-record breaking yardage season? Selection.
Against the Jaguars in Week 10, Toney saw a season-high 28 snaps, 17 of which were passes. That means on 50% of Mahomes’ 35 dropbacks, Toney was an available target. He was targeted five teams with an aDOT of 6.8 yards for 57 total receiving yards and a touchdown. Even more encouraging was his forced usage in the offense– most of his work came in cross-formation motions and he even got a couple of handoffs. In his time with KC, Toney was targeted on 24.6% of his routes run, 11th-most in the NFL (min. 50 snaps).
Toney’s a strong DFS play this week and part of the reason why is due to his expected workload. With an up-tempo offense, Toney’s also a strong prop bet this week.
Christian Kirk Over Total Receptions
Best available odds: Over/Under ()
Speaking of targets per route run, Kirk also files under the top tier of players. This season, Kirk was targeted on 20.4% of routes run, leading to 137 total passes thrown his way, 16th-most in the NFL. Last time against KC, Kirk saw 10 targets, pulling in nine of them for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In the AFC Wild Card round, Kirk saw a season-high 14 targets. The week before against Tennessee, Lawrence targeted him seven times. In an overtime win against Dallas, Kirk got 10 more.
What do all of those games have in common? Urgency. When Lawrence trails in games and needs a go-to receiver, it’s Christian Kirk.
Kirk lines up in the slot on over 75% of snaps this season, including on almost 90% of snaps last time out against KC. L’Jarius Sneed has been terrific for the Chiefs in his young career and is the team’s primary slot corner. Good as Sneed plays, teams aren’t afraid to target him. On 16% of slot coverage snaps this year, the ball was thrown Sneed’s way. For context, the Vikings’ Adam Thielen had a 15.5% target share on routes run this year.
Last time out, the ball was forced to Kirk. With the season in the balance, I don’t expect anything different here.
Best of luck betting Jaguars vs. Chiefs props and the NFL Playoffs as a whole.
