Jacob deGrom Set To Return With Mets Among World Series Favorites

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on August 1, 2022
jacob degrom

With the MLB trading deadline looming on Tuesday, Aug. 2, the biggest addition made to any team may not come via trade. The New York Mets have an internal addition on the way, one that could alter the shape of the remaining regular season and playoffs. Jacob deGrom will reportedly make his season debut Tuesday.

How do New York Mets futures look with deGrom’s long-awaited return finally near? We’ll explore below. Click on the odds anywhere to bet now. 

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Mets Among Favorites To Win World Series

Even with arguably the best pitcher on the planet on ice for the entire season, things have hardly been dire for the Mets. In fact, they have positioned themselves rather well and actually gained strength in the eyes of the market.

The Mets opened the season at around +1200 in futures markets. Now, you can’t find them any longer than . That’s about a 4% jump in implied World Series win probability as of July 31. While that might seem like peanuts, keep in mind that nearly every team in baseball has seen its championship odds drop drastically compared to Spring Training.

Despite a strong title defense campaign by the Braves, the Mets have built a three-game lead in the NL East. Their divisional odds are up to after opening roughly equal with the champs. FanGraphs’ projections have the Mets taking the division 72.4% of the time, right in line with the market price.

Does Jacob deGrom Alter Playoff Outlook?

The Mets may not need deGrom to take the division, although the Braves’ mid-season surge has made things interesting. Where the ace brings the most value is undoubtedly in the playoffs. There, aces can assume an outsized portion of their teams’ innings, even serving as closers on their “throwing days” in between starts.

Only the Dodgers (16.9%) and Astros (15.9%) have a stronger chance to win it all than the Mets’ 15% according to the projections. That likely reflects the tantalizing possibility of a rotation headed by deGrom and Max Scherzer, to say nothing of the great work Chris Bassitt (3.83 ERA, 3.22 xERA) and Taijuan Walker (2.67 ERA, 3.89 xERA) have done.

Furthermore, closer Edwin Diaz gives the Mets yet another premium arm who can handle a bulkier playoff workload. Diaz is in the midst of one of the greatest reliever seasons of all time. He has a minuscule 0.96 FIP powered by a ludicrous 18.14 K/9.

Remember, when deGrom went down last season — he last pitched July 7, 2021 — he was on his way to a slam dunk Cy Young campaign that was also generating MVP buzz. The projections still see him as a fearsome weapon, forecasting a roughly 2.5 ERA. Few if any players move the needle more than that in the postseason.

Already, the Mets have made a move on the margins to grab able platoon bat Dan Vogelbach. Tyler Naquin gives them more outfield depth and yet another lefty bat.

With the biggest addition coming on Tuesday, this may be the final chance to buy on Mets futures. If Jacob deGrom pitches like the deGrom of old, we may see these odds shorten further.

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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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