Italy Vs Spain: Euro 2020 Semifinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Marco Cerino on July 4, 2021 - Last Updated on July 6, 2021
Italy vs spain

The first semifinal at Wembley Stadium will add another chapter to the most common match-up in the European Championships. Italy Vs Spain will take place for the seventh time in the continental tournament, with a spot in the finals at stake.

Here is our betting guide for Tuesday’s game at London’s Wembley Stadium, kicking off at 3:00p ET on ESPN.

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Italy Vs Spain Odds

Two major questions will face the semifinalists entering Tuesday’s game. For Italy, the defense will have to adjust after left back Leonardo Spinazzola fell to an Achilles injury late in the second half. He will miss the rest of the tournament. For Spain, the offense that exploded for 10 goals in two games went missing despite going a man up in the second half of the quarterfinal against Switzerland. Despite 10 shots on goal, Spain only tallied an own goal and was held scoreless for over 40 minutes facing 10 Swiss.

Neither here is the Euro 2020 favorite to win the tournament at this juncture, but either has the quality to do so.

The odds listed are for the 90 minutes of regulation plus any stoppage time. If you bet on Italy or Spain in this 3-way market and your team wins in extra time or penalty kicks, you will still lose your bet.

Italy vs Spain - Euro 2020 Semifinal Odds

Italy
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+155
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+150
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+155
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+150
Draw
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+215
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+210
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+210
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+210
Spain
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+200
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+200
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+200
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+190
Over 2.5 Total Goals
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+135
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+134
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+120
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+124
Under 2.5 Total Goals
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-167
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-164
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-160
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-165

RELATED: England vs Denmark Euro 2020 Semifinal Odds

Italy vs Spain Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Italy and Spain entered the quarterfinals as the two best teams on xGD. Both expanded their margins with the victories. While Spain’s xG is now five higher than their on-field total, it magnifies the offensive concerns about this inconsistent squad. Italy won despite the xGD coming up short of the margin of victory. Friday was the first game the xGA finished over 1, which is expected given the caliber of the competition.

TeamGoals ScoredGoals AllowedGoal DifferentialEuro 2020 xGEuro 2020 xGAEuro 2020 xGD
Italy112+911.264.187.08
Spain125+717.587.4810.1

Matchup History

Spain took the most high-profile meeting, winning Euro 2012 over Italy 4-0 in the final. The Roja also bounced the Azzuri four years prior in a quarterfinal penalty shootout victory, on the way to their second Euro tite. Italy gained some revenge with a 2-0 win in the first knockout round in 2016, their first win over Spain in the competition since 1988. The two sides drew in group play in 1980 and 2012.

Italy seeks their fourth final in the tournament and their first crown since 1968. Spain wants to make it three finals in the last four editions, making them the first to do so since West Germany made three consecutive finals between 1972 and 1980.

Path To The Semifinal

So the two former champions will duel again in elimination play, fitting for two of the top names in international soccer. Italy had the more impressive and decisive win in Friday’s quarterfinals, dispatching FIFA’s top-ranked Belgium with a 2-1 regulation win, maintaining their unblemished record of five wins in five matches. Spain went to penalty kicks to eliminate Switzerland after a 1-1 draw. This was the fifth of the first nine knockout matches to go to extra time.

Italy vs Spain Betting Final Thoughts

Italy’s play in dispatching Belgium in regulation makes them a deserved favorite. However, these teams are very close in style and substance.

Despite the siege defense in Friday’s second half, Italy were able to counter the Belgians with some long sideline passes to spring the potent attack.

While Spain’s numbers show less efficiency is converting scoring chances than Italy, Spain has produced more scoring opportunities overall than Italy.

The Italians have multiple forwards with multiple goals in the tournament. Alvaro Morata and the Spanish attackers will need to be more clinical against a fierce Italian defense that has only allowed one goal in regular time in this tournament.

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