Italy Vs England: Euro 2020 Final Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Marco Cerino on July 8, 2021 - Last Updated on July 11, 2021
italy vs england

England has not won a major soccer tournament since 1966. Sunday, they’ll look to end the 55-year drought at Wembley Stadium. Italy vs England has the makings of an instant classic.

Oddsmakers have made England a slight favorite. The teams are very similar, with talented lineups, strong defenses with excellent goalkeepers setting up offenses that can counterpunch or pass deftly for opportunities. Both teams can finish at the net with elite scorers.

Let’s break it all down to help you make the most informed bet possible.

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Italy vs England Odds

Yes, England are playing at home, at Wembley Stadium in the nation’s capital, and they are the away side for the title game. If we get the Italian blue jerseys and the English all-white kits, that’ll be okay.

Here are the prices offered by top sportsbooks for the Euro 2020 final, kicking off Sunday at 3:00p ET from London on ESPN.

Odds cover a regulation result, which includes the 90 scheduled minutes plus any stoppage time. If you bet on England or Italy to win in the 3-way market and the win comes in extra time or penalty kicks, you still lose your bet.

Italy vs England Odds: Euro 2020 Final

Italy
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+200
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+195
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+190
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+195
Draw
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+205
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+195
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+200
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+195
England
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+163
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+165
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+170
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+160
Over 2.5 Total Goals
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+165
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+166
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+140
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+155
Under 2.5 Total Goals
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-210
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-205
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-190
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-210

Italy vs England Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Expected goals have been a good bellwether in determining who will prevail in the elimination rounds of this tournament. The four quarterfinals featured major differences between opponents and the teams with the better xGD advanced.

In the semifinals, however, it was the teams with better xGAs who won, despite the weaker xGD than the teams eliminated.

Spain’s struggles to finish, despite their high scoring outputs, were magnified by the higher xG they accrued, which may have cost them an opportunity to win in regulation or extra time. While Demark finally ended England’s tournament-long shutout streak, the hosts will end Euros with the best defensive record, barring a massive offensive outburst in the final.

The top-two xGA teams will now play for the European Championship, having played fairly close to their on-field results for xG.

Here are the xG stats for Italy and England entering Sunday’s championship match:

TeamGoals ScoredGoals ConcededGoal DifferentialEuro 2020 xGEuro 2020 xGAEuro 2020 xGD
Italy123+912.045.92+6.12
England101+911.053.62+7.43

Path To The Final

England are the higher-ranked team at No. 4 in FIFA’s pre-tournament table, while Italy is No. 7.

However, the Italians have played higher-ranked opponents during the tournament, including the group stage (No. 13 Switzerland vs. England’s toughest draw of No. 14 Croatia). Italy makes the final after eliminating two teams ranked above them in No. 1 Belgium, followed by No. 6 Spain in the semifinal shootout.

By contrast, England defeated No. 12 Germany in the round of 16 before dispatching No. 10 Denmark in extra time in the semis.

Is It Finally Coming Home?

Think about how much sports have changed since 1966. England’s top flight was the First Division, which held 22 teams. It was mostly domestic fare, not the international TV content machine/luxury brand the Premier League has become. In America, there were two pro football leagues and six teams in the NHL.

Since that 4-2 win over West Germany in the 1966 World Cup, which they also hosted, English football has seen a litany of close misses in major tournaments, especially in the semifinal rounds. There was a controversial loss to Yugoslavia in Euro 1968. They fell victim to the Hand of God in 1986 against Argentina during the World Cup. Penalty shootouts ended runs in 1990 and 1996.

For all the hard times and disappointment, England finally caught a break of their own. Harry Kane’s goal via a debated penalty kick ruling in extra time Wednesday brought ample jubilation to supporters. Now they face an old rival in Italy. Since the English won their World Cup, Italy claimed two Cups and won that 1968 European Championship. Sunday at Wembley will be a star-studded showdown between two historic powerhouses.

Italy vs Engalnd Series History

To break their decades of futility in championship pursuits, England will also have to reverse their historical record against the Italians.

Italy has won all four matches in major competition finals against the Three Lions. This includes a 1-0 group stage win in Euro 1980 and a penalty shootout victory in the Euro 2012 quarterfinals.

In fact, since the 1966 World Cup victory, England holds a 4-11-4 record against the Azzurri.

Italy vs England Final Thoughts

As far as big matches go, this is as close as it can get to a World Cup final. The outright win odds that take into account possible extra time or penalty kick shootout have England as a slight favorite (-115 to -120). The Three Lions have the home-field advantage and seem to be peaking at the right time.

However, the Italians have looked the class of the tournament since their opening-night win over Turkey. They survived prolonged stretches of Spanish pressure in Tuesday’s win before advancing on PKs.

For both sides, Euro 2020 has been a major success. Italy has banished the demons of failing to make the World Cup four years ago. England made a major tournament final for the first time since the days of the Mods and Beatlemania.

Despite all the wins and accolades thus far, only one will hoist the trophy after a match oddsmakers have set close to a coin flip.

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Marco Cerino

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