Euro 2020 Quarterfinals: Italy Vs Belgium Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Marco Cerino on June 29, 2021 - Last Updated on July 4, 2021

Soccer has the reputation of being a cruel, unfair decider of fate. Part of what keeps the sport from really endearing itself with some Americans is how often a final score or progression is unjust or leaves fans wanting more. Italy vs Belgium offers Americans just that, a matchup of two teams justified in being in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals.

Italy and Belgium were the only two teams to win all three group stage contests and have appeared the class of the tournament. Of course, this means they’ll face off two rounds before the final they arguably deserve.

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Belgium Key Contributors Questionable To Play

Not only are Belgium taking on Italy in the quarterfinal, they may do so without two big contributors. Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne are still dealing with injuries from their domestic campaigns. While they have played, it’s unlikely they’ll be at the level they need to be Friday for a top-flight opponent like Italy.

Belgium have leaned on their stars like Romelu Lukaku to win their first four matches. He’ll see some familiar faces in the Italian squad after helping Inter Milan take Serie A. The Italians needed extra time to get past Austria on Saturday but have been on an astounding unbeaten streak that has also landed the squad into the UEFA Nations League semifinals. Both teams will face a step-up in competition.

Euro 2020 Outright Markets

Italy vs Belgium Odds

Here are the prices for Friday’s game in Munich, Germany. The game will start at 3:00p ET and air on ESPN. The moneyline and total prices reflect the full time (90 minutes and stoppage time) result and does not include any extra time or penalty kick results.

If you bet Italy or Germany to win in the 90 minutes and they require extra time or penalty kicks to advance, you will lose your bet.

These prices deserve to be monitored. If Belgium offers any updates on the fitness of De Bruyne or Hazard, they will likely move. Italy’s squad seems mostly set in terms of injury.

The Italians had their months-long shutout streak snapped late in extra time on what otherwise was a meaningless parting gift for the plucky Austrians. Playing at home, Italy flexed their offensive prowess in victories. Similarly, Belgium leaned on their depth and Lukaku to rack up group stage wins.

Italy
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+133
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+135
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+130
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+130
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+135
Draw
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+210
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+200
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+210
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+205
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+210
Belgium
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+245
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+220
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+220
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+230
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+225
Over 2.5 Total Goals
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+145
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+140
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+130
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+138
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+130
Under 2.5 Total Goals
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-180
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-175
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-175
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-185
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-167

Italy vs Belgium Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

The expected goals project a stark contrast to the actual game stats. Belgium has outperformed their xG and xGA by the widest margin of any remaining side. Regression could be coming.

Italy met its xG projection and boasts the top xGA at Euro 2020. Based on these stats, it’s easier to see why Italy is a -155 favorite in the Team To Advance market, with possible extra time and penalty kicks baked into that price.

Here are the numbers, with where each team ranks among Euro 2020 teams in parentheses.

TeamEuro 2020 GoalsEuro 2020 Goals AllowedEuro 2020 Goal DifferentialEuro 2020 xGEuro 2020 xGAEuro 2020 xGD
Italy9 (T2nd)1 (T2nd)+8 (1st)9.03 (3rd)2.32 (1st)+6.71 (2nd)
Belgium8 (4th)1 (T2nd)+7 (T2nd)4.62 (8th)4.01 (4th)+0.61 (6th)

Italy v. Belgium Betting Preview

With the uncertainty around two of Belgium’s biggest names, this could be a late money game. Italy played the extra half-hour in the Round of 16 but also will have the extra day of rest. Belgium’s offense will give Italy the sternest test it has faced in months, no matter who appears. However, the Italians are familiar with Lukaku and Napoli star Dries Mertens. They will be prepared.

If anything appears to tip off bettors, it might be that xGD for Belgium. They cruised through an easy group stage before dispatching the reigning champions Portugal. Keeping a team that’s mostly Ronaldo off the scoreboard is one thing. Doing that against a deep Italian lineup playing with confidence and cohesion is another.

Italy are currently second-choice on the futures boards behind Spain. If they pass this test, they’ll face the winner of the Spain-Switzerland match earlier in the day. This stronger side of the bracket may produce the winner of the tournament.

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