Inter Milan Vs FC Porto: 2023 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on February 22, 2023
champions league odds

The 2023 Champions League Round of 16 continues on Wednesday, Feb. 22 with Leg 1 of Inter Milan vs. FC Porto at Stadio San Siro in Milan, Italy. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. ET on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. A winner would have the edge before the two meet again in the second leg on March 14 in Porto, Portugal. As part of soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match, with Inter a favorite to win the first leg.

Inter Milan Vs FC Porto League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If you bet on either team to win and the match is a draw, you lose the bet. It is not a push.

Inter Milan Team Preview

Inter finds themselves 15 points behind Serie A league leaders Napoli. A tally that would lead you to suggest that they are currently fifth or sixth in the table. Unfortunately for the San Siro outfit, they are actually second.

Simply put, they and the rest of the teams within Serie A simply cannot lay a glove on Napoli this season; therefore, it is fair to say that Inter will have to make do with being the best of the rest back home.

Now though, Inter will look to put their energy into further Champions League progress and after being paired with FC Porto in the Round of 16, this is certainly one of the more balanced ties in midweek.

Simone Inzaghi’s men may be approaching longshot territory when it comes to outright success but if the draws continue to be favorable towards them, who knows where their momentum could take them.

With Lautaro Martinez currently the club’s top scorer for the season, the Argentine forward will look to add to the 12 goals that he has registered in Serie A, and although he did not have the best World Cup, he is not showing signs of tiredness since.

Of course, Inter’s progress to the Round of 16 should not be overlooked either. In a group that also consisted of Bayern Munich and Barcelona, they were not considered likely qualifiers. They have already upset the form book once. They will soon look to do it again. 

FC Porto Team Preview

There is no doubt that FC Porto was placed in the easiest of the eight Champions League groups. With the Portuguese outfit also being paired with Club Brugge, Atletico Madrid, and Bayer Leverkusen, further progress always looked likely.

However, not many would have expected Sergio Conceicao’s men to top Group B and they would have certainly not expected Atletico Madrid to finish bottom of the standings at the same time.

Then again, you can only beat the teams that are put in front of you and if your opponents are misfiring, that is not the worry of the outfit that is picking up precious Champions League points at their expense.

While it does seem as if fortune has once again favored the Liga NOS outfit and with a pairing with Inter Milan in the Round of 16, the team that plays at the Estádio do Dragão will fancy their chances of further progress.

With Benfica running rampant on a domestic front, Porto finds themselves in a similar situation to their upcoming opponents and because of this, they may as well throw all their eggs in the Champions League basket.

Something that sets up the first leg rather nicely and offers manager Sérgio Conceição a dilemma. Does he try and roll the dice to earn an early advantage or simply aim to stay in the tie before taking the Italians back to their turf in just a couple of weeks? 

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Inter Milan vs. FC Porto Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.


Matchup History

Inter vs FC Porto have previously crossed paths in the Champions League and of the four encounters that have been contested, it is the Italian outfit who have subsequently won two and drawn one.

The two sides met at this stage of the competition 18 years ago and with Inter managing to pick up a 1-1 draw in Porto, they would then secure progress to the quarterfinals with a 3-1 second-leg win at the San Siro.

While as fate would have it, the two were drawn together in the following season’s group stage. This time both teams would win their respective home fixtures and although Inter moved on to the knockout stage, Porto would finish bottom of the table. 

Inter Milan vs. FC Porto Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Double Chance: Draw or Porto: +115

When looking at the makeup of the Champions League Round of 16 ties, the meeting between Inter and FC Porto is certainly one that could hang in the balance and this is reflected in the moneyline odds.

Inter are priced at for a home win, and in my opinion, this is far too skinny for me to get overly excited. At the same time, backing the visitors to win may present a little too much in the way of risk. 

Thankfully when it comes to Champions League betting, there are plenty more different angles to look at and in this instance, I am going to plump for the double chance market and the additional insurance that it offers.

Insurance that comes with FC Porto to earn at least a draw for their Italian troubles. With this combination offering plus odds, I would rather tilt the pendulum in this direction than towards Inter instead.

Although Simone Inzaghi’s men are currently lying second in Serie A, they are miles behind Napoli at the top of the table and slightly lacking when it comes to consistency. While FC Porto has a habit of raising their game when it comes to European competition.

They have already played a major part in dumping both Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid out of the competition and could well add Inter to their list of scalps. If they are to do that, avoiding defeat in midweek would certainly aid their cause. 

FC Porto To Lead Anytime: +165

While I am going to follow up my first pick by nailing more of my colors to the FC Porto mast. If they are to avoid defeat at the San Siro, then gaining an advantage should not be outside the realm of possibility either.

With the double chance selection covering either a win or draw for the visitors, this means that the first goal from Sergio Conceicao’s men would unlock the winnings from this prediction.

Regardless of whether Inter found themselves back in the tie with an equalizer soon after, the market would already be closed. Even if the Italians found two unanswered goals and finished the game on top, some winnings would still be in our pockets.

Admittedly this market does come with an element of risk, but then again it is hard to find a worthwhile one that does not. Ultimately, it all depends on how confident you are about backing FC Porto in midweek.

If they can get their noses in front, then it will only make life harder for Inter. If the goal is an early one, that will coax the Italian outfit out and they could be susceptible to further waves of attack.

At the same time, this bet could also be won by a late smash and grab. A goal for the visitors that gives the home side no time to retaliate and if that proves to be the case, both these two predictions will have got themselves over the finishing line. 

Best of luck betting Champions League odds.

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