Illinois Election Odds: Key Races For Tuesday, June 28 Primary

Written By Evan Scrimshaw on June 20, 2022
illinois primary election odds

With Election Day for Illinois Primaries on June 28, there’s a few races that have some intrigue about them. Between a GOP Primary for Governor and some competitive House Primaries, there’s plenty of Illinois primary election odds to consider – and a legal betting option via PredictIt.

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Illinois Primary Election Odds: Republican Party

Nomination For Governor

CandidatePredictIt PriceImplied Odds
Darren Bailey$0.90-900
Richard Irvin $0.11+850

This race is one where Republicans have actually tried to ensure they get the candidate that they want, even if, in this case, it looks like their voters won’t do what the consultant class wants.

The GOP would ideally nominate Richard Irvin, the formerly Democratic mayor of a Chicagoland suburb that would have a lot of appeal in the suburban counties and the parts of Cook County that aren’t properly Chicago.

Irvin would have a lot of cross over appeal as a Black Republican from increasingly Democratic areas, and if the GOP want to have a chance at winning this race. In theory, this race could be winnable for the GOP, with a bad national environment and a state where the downstate trends help Republicans and the rich Chicagoland suburbs could revert for the right state office.

Just like Massachusetts has a history of electing Republican Governors in red states, the GOP in Illinois could have a similar path if they nominate Irvin-type figures – moderates with crossover appeal in the suburbs. Unfortunately for them, they have no interest in making the right tactical decision.

Early polling had Irvin ahead, but now Darren Bailey, a more forthrightly Republican member of the State Senate, is racing ahead of him in the polls. Bailey isn’t getting great vote shares, but he is capitalizing on the fact that Irvin isn’t a long time Republican to get ahead.

Bailey’s price might be heavy, but he’s going to win this primary, so act accordingly.

House of Representatives: District 13

CandidatePredictIt PriceImplied Odds
Regan Deering$0.59-143
Jesse Reising$0.30+233

Given that the new 13th is now a Democratic leaning seat, this seat is now a fight for the right to run against a Democrat trying to defend this seat against the tide of the state’s partisanship. Here, Republicans have a problem, in that their primary electorate are going to be mostly from the areas between the three cities, but the voters they need to win a General Election are in the three Democratic areas.

Jesse Reising has the advantage of money and establishment support, but Regan Deering has the energy, and while this race has avoided the kinds of nationalization that others have, that might be enough.

That said, this is a Biden won race, and getting a tough on crime former prosecutor in this sort of race has to be worth something to the GOP primary voters who want a win.

It’s not a race to be too confident in, Reising seems like a worthwhile bet – a candidate with an electability argument and better infrastructure at an underdog price is worth a bet.

House of Representatives: District 15

CandidatePredictIt PriceImplied Odds
Mary Miller$0.70-233
Rodney Davis$0.34+194

This is an odd function of redistricting, but here we have two Republican members running against each other.

With Illinois Democrats having full control of redistricting, they wanted to draw out a Republican member in addition to deleting a Republican incumbent with the seat that Illinois lost.

So, Rodney Davis’ 13th district went from a Republican seat to a Democratic snake connecting Democratic areas in the St. Louis suburbs, Springfield, and Champagne through rural Illinois. By connecting these areas, the area has gone from a Trump-won district to Biden +11.

Related: Joe Biden Odds To Win Re-Election in 2024

Davis’ home, and therefore his best chance of reelection, moved to the 15th district, where he is double bunked, as it were, with Mary Miller, a Freedom Caucus member and staunch conservative.

Miller is best known for giving a speech two days after she was sworn into Congress last year where she affirmatively quoted Hitler, and for arguing against military aid to Ukraine on the basis that that equipment was better off being used at the US-Mexico border.

Davis, on the other hand, is just a normal conservative Republican who is as reasonable as the average Republican member, and that fact is dooming him in this primary.

Miller has the support – and the over $1M in ad dollars – from the Club For Growth, a GOP group insistent on nominating staunchly conservative Republicans. Given the new 15th took in all the conservative areas the old new 13th got rid of, the winner of this race will win the General Election.

Given that, Miller has to be the favourite to win this easily – the more moderate candidate in either an open GOP Primary or a double incumbent race almost never wins, even when they have establishment support. Here, Miller is both the insurgent and the best funded candidate.

That combination doesn’t end in defeat.

Illinois Primary Election Odds: Democratic Party

House of Representatives: District 6

CandidatePredictIt PriceImplied Odds
Sean Casten$0.92-1149
Marie Newman$0.05+1900

Here is another incumbent on incumbent primary, this time not due to partisanship, but personal disdain.

Mary Newman won her seat in 2020 by beating long time Democratic incumbent Dan Lipinsky, who is basically not a Democrat, but he was very influential in Chicago Democratic politics, and so his friends and allies have proceeded to enact revenge by shunting her into Sean Casten’s district.

Newman ran in 2018 and 2020 as a progressive – maybe not quite as aggressive of one as Bernie Sanders, but substantially more so than the pro-life Lipinsky. She won almost in spite of herself – nobody was really voting for her because of her talents or credits, it was all about not being a useless moderate in a safe seat.

Now that she’s not running against a limp noodle, she has had to try and differentiate herself, and those efforts have failed – especially given her ethics investigation showed that she paid off a fellow candidate with a Hill job to secure an easy run against Lipinsky.

Casten isn’t much of a progressive, but compared to Lipinsky, he is on the right side of all the social issues and has been a reliable vote for Joe Biden’s agenda – which Lipinsky wasn’t for Barack Obama.

Casten is the choice of the Illinois Democratic machine, given they double-bunked Newman to screw her over, and he is in the right lane for the wider electorate – staunchly supportive of the President and not willing to engage with the fights and drama. Given that, he’ll win.


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